The real question at this point, is not who will win the presidential election. That's pretty much settled. It is which party will run The House.
Can the Democrats convince enough voters that Obama's various programs could get us out of recession quicker if there was not a majority of Republicans in The House blocking everything he proposes for partisan gain? They will have plenty of juicy quotes from Republicans saying they are doing exactly that. Can American voters follow a logical argument and connect cause and effect?
Or do we just elect "the good-looking guy" (my Mom's favorite criteria), or base our decisions on over-inflated icons like abortion, illegals, welfare queens, etc.
What is with all the whining? Has your argument really come down to blaming the bullies in the House for all of Obama's failures?
Elections will always come down to the lowest common denominator. People elect other people because they do not want to worry about the world around them. They want to be fat, dumb and happy. They only want to worry about their own life. The President is in trouble. He is POTUS and can never be counted out, but he is in deep trouble with the electorate. Even if he can turn the argument around and convince enough people that he wasn't talented enough politically to pass his agenda, I am pretty sure people will not be sympathetic. Even if he can convince people people that he was naive about the actaul shape of the economy when he tood office, he has had four years and it has gotten worse.
This is what the election will come down to, Obama will say he is making progress and he needs more time. The Republican nominee will will aks if people are better off today than they were four years ago. Obama will insist that he was not treated fairly, the nominee will insist that excuses are like a-holes. Obama will point to Obamacare, the nation will throwup in their mouths.
Obama's only advantage is that he is the incumbant. He will also point out how unique America is to have elected an African-American (depending on the audience mind you) as President. Those are his advantages. The Republican will have unemployment, fuel prices, foreign policy and domestic policy to beat Obama over the head with. Can't you see it now.....
Obama: "I tried to pass <fill in the blank>, but the culture of Washington always got in the way.
Nominee: "Isn't it the job of the President to find a middle ground? Isn't it your job to act as the leader of the country, and not the leader of your party?"
Do not be lulled to sleep by a soft press, this election is going to be fun, haymakers will be thrown from every angle, upper cuts and jabs in every debate. In the end it will come down to the ability of Obama to convince America that he can succeed, where he failed during his first term. The nominee will have the advantage of not having a track record to run on. Hey, GW won reelection so it could happen, but I don't see a Karl Rove type running Obama's campaign and I don't see an overwhelming reason why people would want four more years of Obama. I have looked for the reasons, I have tried to find the reasons why my analysis is wrong, and I don't see it. Obama has a punchers chance in Nov, nothing more.