Global warming predictions

Posted by: logtroll

Global warming predictions - 08/19/19 01:38 PM

I spent a half hour this morning watching videos of river running, looking for a good metaphor for our approach to the climate crisis. Didn't find what I was looking for, I think because watching a boat go though a big set of rapids from the shore is nothing like actually being in the river.

Many rivers in the western U.S. with big rapids are a type that's known as 'pool and drop', the product of a geologic situation where tributary streams deposit boulders and such into the main river from floods, or ridges of solid rock from granitic or igneous formations. You will float along on stretches of fairly calm water, sometimes for a mile, then around a bend up ahead will come a gradually increasing noise of turbulent water. You can tell big water from the pitch of the sound and how long it takes to get to it. When it comes into view, the first thing you see is not big waves and white water - you see a flat horizon of water across the river, with maybe a few splashes coming up from below. And a loud roar... The steeper the gradient, the closer you have to get to see where to go. We usually have maps and descriptions of the rapids, of course, which provide guidance about where to enter the run and how best to maneuver on the way through. In my experience, you can run a Class II rapid pretty casually as set up and maneuvering are not critical, and you can see the rocks and hazards from quite a distance away. A Class III will have a horizon and set up at the top is fairly important, but emergency maneuvers on the way through are possible. Class IV is a type you had better scout and run correctly, as the wrong line is a probable swim - and swimming in whitewater is no fun (it's not really even swimming...). I have never run a Class V, but can speculate that you'll want to take a quick s*** while you're on the shore scouting in order to avoid an unwanted distraction as you risk your life. Class VI is un-runnable without a serious mishap probably resulting in death...

As I see it, many people can hear the global warming rapids coming from down the river, but we are drifting slowly through the long pool, warm sun shining, laying back in the raft sipping a beer and watching the canyon above for Bighorn sheep - it's still not anything to start preparing for. Unfortunately, no one has run The Big One that's around the bend, and it's a Class V or VI. The proper action at this point would be to put ashore to do some serious scouting (unmetaphorically speaking, to begin making some radical changes to the lazy, thoughtless, and indulgent way we have become accustomed to living). The river of our culture is approaching a major drop, which will likely need portaging, or maybe abandoning our gear entirely and hiking out of the canyon.

But my prediction is that we will not manage any meaningful proactivity before the pool ends at a horizon across the river, and will panic when reaching the top of The Big One rapids without a decent set up or the ability to maneuver on the way down.

Hey, would somebody pass me a cold beer?
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/19/19 02:21 PM

Waterfall. Sharp rocks. Who survives the fall will likely drown.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/20/19 02:21 PM

Interesting, but I take note that the author didn't actually name any local actions that people can implement to fight the climate crisis.

I believe the primary reason that folks generally don't know what they can do, is that what can be done on a personal level involves a conscious and willing choice to make some effort... (please see my new signature line below).

Think globally, act locally.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/20/19 05:05 PM

Local efforts are a crap waste of time. Recycling is a local effort. We have failed miserably. Microplastics have just been found in pristine arctic snow. Plastic has been found at the bottom of the Marianna Trench. Mt. Everest is littered with tons of garbage, dead bodies and frozen s*** as a daily queu of "climbers" wanders up the airless slope in a disillusioned line. Each laden with more garbage and s***. Locals try to keep things clean but they just can't keep up.

We all try to keep our carbon footprint as small as possible without actually giving anything up. But when the beach is covered with footprints who can tell what size they are?

Follow the science.

A massive extinction event is demonstrably underway.

Atmospheric CO2 rising. Temperature rising. Ice melting. Seas rising.

Homo Sapiens might imagine himself to be more than just another animal dependent on the earth, air, and water for survival. But I've got news...

My actual prediction is dire. But I can see a path to our survival and future success as a species.
Posted by: itstarted

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/20/19 06:59 PM

What Greger said.. 100%
.............................................
Circa 1978... On the wrong branch of a river in the Adirondaks, son in the bow, me in the stern... faster, and suddenly louder... rounding a bend and looking at 5 feet of fog/water, and a 45 degree drop between sheer sharp rocks. Heart stopping... no choice.. three minutes of sheer terror... canoe 1/4 filled with water.
It finally flattened out, a brought us to a tiny village... met on the shore by a resident asking "How did you get here?".

That's what Class V is.

I am seriously afraid that attempts at saving the environment are analogous to going back upstream in that river.

Last chance that I see is adopting the Social Credit System. Not recommending but I can see no way forward. Afraid we've run out of time. Today's population of the US, is 329M... when I was born, it was 136M.

To lighten this up a bit, read this article about Harry, and Elton John....

Quote:
The total for the two flights would therefore be 19.8 tonnes, equivalent to more than three times the annual carbon footprint of the average Briton, or 58 times the annual emissions of someone in Lesotho, where Prince Harry went on his gap year and helped found a charity.

Harry and Elton
... and then check to see if your #7 plastic bottle is recyclable. grin

Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/20/19 07:47 PM

We need a complete revamp of the recyclable container industry. We have a large number of plastics we use for these containers and packaging. We need to outlaw those that are not recyclable and color code the remaining plastics. Recycling centers are closing because they can't make enough money to stay in business. We need to outlaw mixed packaging, where the recyclable components are difficult to separate. We also need to institute large fines for putting contaminated plastic in recycle bins. People actually put dirty diapers in them, and it screws up the sorting machine badly.

The recycle stream has to be easy to machine sort. There has to be real recycling on the other end of the sort facility, that really use the plastic to make other plastic items of the same color instead of shipping it to poor countries to be dumped or burned. Or there could be facilities that burn unrecyclable colors to completion to generate electricity.

We can make recycling work, it just costs more when you don't externalize. Turns out "externalization" comes right back and bites you in the ass. There really is no such thing. It's just littering on a global scale.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/20/19 09:11 PM

Originally Posted By: Greger
...We all try to keep our carbon footprint as small as possible without actually giving anything up. But when the beach is covered with footprints who can tell what size they are?

Here's the main local, actually personal, thing that needs to happen (but virtually no one will do it by choice) - BE LIKE GREGER. Don't do much, don't consume much, reduce your desires.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/20/19 10:23 PM

Well, Logmeister, you sure nailed that one down. But I didn't do it by choice either. $7.21 an hour doesn't necessarily reduce your desires but it definitely reduces your options.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/21/19 12:07 AM

I do admire how you have adjusted your philosophy and outlook to fit your circumstances, however un-chosen they be. And as for your carbon footprint, I'd speculate that it is less than 10% of most of us here.

Maybe there's something we can do - give trophies for the smallest carbon feetprints!
Posted by: itstarted

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/21/19 12:23 AM

Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/21/19 05:43 AM

I'm reducing my carbon footprint, at least going forward. I have enough solar panels that I won't have to buy any electricity in the coming years. I'm also converting from propane to solar heat, solar hot water, and electric stove & clothes dryer. We hardly ever use the dryer, though. We have a clothes line! All of this stuff is quite practical in San Diego County.

My primary vehicle is a small hybrid.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/21/19 02:44 PM

Pretty good article, but you have to sign up with medium.com (it's a good thing to be signed up with, though...)

better technology isn't the solution to environmental collapse
Posted by: Senator Hatrack

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/25/19 10:17 PM

In the 1970's the "climate scientists" were predicting a global freeze caused by the use of fossil fuel.
http://www.populartechnology.net/2013/02/the-1970s-global-cooling-alarmism.html
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/25/19 10:40 PM

It's amazing that no new data or climate modeling methodologies have appeared in the past 40 years... I guess that's just the way the cookie bounces... Hmm
Posted by: Senator Hatrack

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/25/19 11:34 PM

Originally Posted By: logtroll
It's amazing that no new data or climate modeling methodologies have appeared in the past 40 years... I guess that's just the way the cookie bounces... Hmm

In other words they were wrong in the 1970's and they are wrong now.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/25/19 11:41 PM

I bet most of them are retired or dead...

What's your point? You can't logically argue that science is wrong all of the time just because some scientists were wrong once, or changed their theories as new data and modeling were available.

Your turn - what do you believe, and what is your basis for it?
Posted by: Senator Hatrack

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/25/19 11:53 PM

What I believe is that climate change has and does happen. The idea that it is man made is a political not scientific one. Look at the "remedies" for the coming global cooling that were made back in the 1970's. Those proposed solutions were political not scientific.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 12:01 AM

You think the 1970's science was political why?
Posted by: Senator Hatrack

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 12:35 AM

Originally Posted By: logtroll
You think the 1970's science was political why?
I told you why. Read the solutions that were proposed to stop the predicted global cooling back in the 1970's. They are the same political solutions that being suggested to stop the predicted global warming/climate change today.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 12:47 AM

Quote:
What I believe is that climate change has and does happen.

Well sure! We're only 10,000 years or so from an ice age. But there were reasons for them then too. A huge meteorite or massive volcanic eruptions, shite like that don't just happen out of the blue. This time around it's becoming pretty clear that the problem is too much CO2. Just coincidentally billions upon billions of people are creating huge amounts of CO2 and have been for centuries. Two and two have already been put together. Along and along, if you live long enough, that will become painfully clear.

Your reasons for denying it are mostly economic right? That it's too expensive to try to do anything about it so we shouldn't try?

You do understand that when Greenland has melted the seas will be 25 feet higher than they are today, right? And it's happening right before our eyes.

Exciting times these! Manhattan and Miami will be no more, New Orleans a memory. Orlando a Beach town! Wonder where them folks gonna go, will they be considered refugees? How they gonna be treated by the starving folks inland....
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 12:54 AM

We know very well now how much CO2 fossil fuel burning is putting into the atmosphere. We also know the rate at which atmospheric CO2 is taken up by the ocean and eventually turned into carbonate minerals. Everything else is dwarfed by those two flows. We know the excess ends up in the atmosphere, and we know the greenhouse effect of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.

So what is there to doubt? Anybody denying man-made global warming at this point just does not want to acknowledge the truth, for political reasons. Climate science is science. Climate change denial is politics. Politics that is going to make it very difficult for our grandchildren to forgive us.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 12:56 AM

Originally Posted By: Senator Hatrack
Originally Posted By: logtroll
You think the 1970's science was political why?
I told you why. Read the solutions that were proposed to stop the predicted global cooling back in the 1970's. They are the same political solutions that being suggested to stop the predicted global warming/climate change today.

That's pretty lame for a basis for belief. But, if it's the best you can do... rolleyes
Posted by: Senator Hatrack

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 01:00 AM

Originally Posted By: Greger
Quote:
What I believe is that climate change has and does happen.

Well sure! We're only 10,000 years or so from an ice age. But there were reasons for them then too. A huge meteorite or massive volcanic eruptions, shite like that don't just happen out of the blue. This time around it's becoming pretty clear that the problem is too much CO2. Just coincidentally billions upon billions of people are creating huge amounts of CO2 and have been for centuries. Two and two have already been put together. Along and along, if you live long enough, that will become painfully clear.

Your reasons for denying it are mostly economic right? That it's too expensive to try to do anything about it so we shouldn't try?

You do understand that when Greenland has melted the seas will be 25 feet higher than they are today, right? And it's happening right before our eyes.

Exciting times these! Manhattan and Miami will be no more, New Orleans a memory. Orlando a Beach town! Wonder where them folks gonna go, will they be considered refugees? How they gonna be treated by the starving folks inland....

Then apparently Pres. Obama does not believe in global warming. If he did he would not have bought a mansion on Martha's Vineyard, an island on the Atlantic Ocean, for $15,000,000. If Manhattan and Miami are washed away by the rising tide Martha's Vineyard will be too.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 01:14 AM

Bad Obama!

What kind of a Dodge are you driving, Senator?
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 01:24 AM

There are parts of Miami and Manhattan that are just a few feet above sea level. A six foot rise would be disasterous. The pictures I have seen of Obama's house look a lot higher than that.

But you know, we were not talking about what President Obama believes or doesn't believe. We were talking about you just ignoring facts because they contradict your political beliefs.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 01:33 AM

My niece lives over on Merritt Island, elevation 3 feet. She believes in global warming but it's nice living on the beach....Someday a hurricane is gonna wipe Merritt Island off the map, but probably not tomorrow. Could be later this year though. A lot of little towns like that are gonna start getting abandoned. all over the world.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 01:44 AM

Seems like some of the science back in the 70s was okay, they figured out there were holes in the ozone, banned flourocarbons and the holes healed up. Global chilling was averted YAY SCIENCE!!!

That's the myth anyway and it suits my political leanings perfectly. Trust the scientists not the politicians.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 02:01 AM

And Senator, it's good to see you! Don't look at this as some sort of battleground, please. We're all just sort of blogging our thoughts here and using each other as foils. It really is a pleasure to have you posting here!
Posted by: Senator Hatrack

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 02:19 AM

Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
There are parts of Miami and Manhattan that are just a few feet above sea level. A six foot rise would be disasterous. The pictures I have seen of Obama's house look a lot higher than that.

But you know, we were not talking about what President Obama believes or doesn't believe. We were talking about you just ignoring facts because they contradict your political beliefs.

People have credibility when their actions match their words. Pres. Obama is a big proponent of global warming and rising sea levels. If his actions were to match his words he would not have bought a mansion on an island in the Atlantic Ocean. His actions do not match his words. That they don't he is either a liar, but then he is a politician so I'm repeating myself, or a hypocrite. Or how about the guru of global warming, VP Al Gore? His carbon footprint is probably bigger than everyone here on the Reader Rant. If you don't practice what you preach why should anyone believe you? (That's a rhetorical question, BTW.)
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 02:33 AM

Fun deflection.

Now, what is your global warming prediction?
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 02:52 AM

Obama doesn't need to flee from the coast any more than my niece does. It's not a Tsunami or anything. We have years to plan for this but by all accounts it appears to be inevitable.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 03:16 AM

And just because a few folks have feet of clay does not say anything at all about the science. Senator, you are making political arguments in the face of scientific facts. This IS happening as we speak. The arctic ice is almost gone. The permafrost is melting in the far North and whole towns are being destroyed because they were built on ice. That melted permafrost is starting to out-gas methane. Ships are using the Arctic ocean as a shortcut when they never could even 10 years ago. The West Antarctic Ice Shelf is very rapidly slipping into the ocean.

Please note that these are all facts: Not "somebody did something" excuses.
Posted by: Senator Hatrack

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 03:43 AM

Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
And just because a few folks have feet of clay does not say anything at all about the science. Senator, you are making political arguments in the face of scientific facts. This IS happening as we speak. The arctic ice is almost gone. The permafrost is melting in the far North and whole towns are being destroyed because they were built on ice. That melted permafrost is starting to out-gas methane. Ships are using the Arctic ocean as a shortcut when they never could even 10 years ago. The West Antarctic Ice Shelf is very rapidly slipping into the ocean.

Please note that these are all facts: Not "somebody did something" excuses.

Are they? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/...E-FREE-now.html
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 11:53 AM

Originally Posted By: Senator Hatrack
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
And just because a few folks have feet of clay does not say anything at all about the science. Senator, you are making political arguments in the face of scientific facts. This IS happening as we speak. The arctic ice is almost gone. The permafrost is melting in the far North and whole towns are being destroyed because they were built on ice. That melted permafrost is starting to out-gas methane. Ships are using the Arctic ocean as a shortcut when they never could even 10 years ago. The West Antarctic Ice Shelf is very rapidly slipping into the ocean.

Please note that these are all facts: Not "somebody did something" excuses.

Are they? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/...E-FREE-now.html

Daily Mail’s relationship with the truth
The Daily Mail is a questionable source:
Quote:
QUESTIONABLE SOURCE

A questionable source exhibits one or more of the following: extreme bias, consistent promotion of propaganda/conspiracies, poor or no sourcing to credible information, a complete lack of transparency and/or is fake news. Fake News is the deliberate attempt to publish hoaxes and/or disinformation for the purpose of profit or influence (Learn More). Sources listed in the Questionable Category may be very untrustworthy and should be fact checked on a per article basis. Please note sources on this list are not considered fake news unless specifically written in the reasoning section for that source.
Posted by: Senator Hatrack

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 04:12 PM

Since everyone has a bias everyone and every news source is questionable.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 05:52 PM

Originally Posted By: Senator Hatrack
Since everyone has a bias everyone and every news source is questionable.

Certainly, but the range of questionableness varies widely, and is somewhat measurable.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 07:07 PM

The author of the Daily Mail article has every right to his opinion. Not everyone is convinced of the science yet, why there was a day once when they said a man would never go to the moon! Some still say he never has.

My belief is that, if nothing else, sea level rise will eventually convince even the tabloid press that global warming is real and man made.

In another 20 years there won't be any deniers.
Posted by: rporter314

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 09:06 PM

geeez .... come on folks .... conservative denial is only tenuously and disingenuously based on scientific criticism but 100% based on idiot-ological beliefs. It would not matter if God or whatever master a conservative believed in told them personally the science is good and there are consequences of climate change ... conservatives would reject it as it is contrary to fundamental conservative beliefs and tenets.

Now if anyone can recall Russian Stalinist history, especially during the 1930's and 40's, one would notice the similarities i.e. science had to conform to communist ideology, otherwise it was rejected. Modern American conservatives are in the same time warp.

My guess is none of the political conservativce critics understand the science but they intimately understand the financial impact to businesses, especially fossil fuel based industries. When they are questioned, eventually they will admit it is about the financial impact on those businesses. Just listen to Mr trump at G7. Windmills ... bah ... oil ... yah.

Even if these people live in compromised coastal areas, and should they live long enough, and should the predictions prove accurate in that time frame, and they find themselves waist deep in water, begging for government action, they would still reject the human impact on climate change and simply say, the weather did it.

I see no point in discussing it with conservative deniers, especially if they have not read any of the scientific literature (on both sides) and rely solely on idiot-ological talking points.

I am hoping God will take a peek and sigh ... failed experiment ... let's start again
Posted by: pdx rick

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 09:17 PM

Originally Posted By: Senator Hatrack
Since everyone has a bias everyone and every news source is questionable.

Even NOAA? Hmm
Posted by: pdx rick

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 09:20 PM

Originally Posted By: Senator Hatrack
People have credibility when their actions match their words. Pres. Obama is a big proponent of global warming and rising sea levels. If his actions were to match his words he would not have bought a mansion on an island in the Atlantic Ocean. His actions do not match his words.

That seems to be the newest rightwing talking point. Do you guys all get together on weekends and determine want to post in public forums over the week? Hmm
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/19 10:08 PM

Seriously? That's a thing? In a hundred years it might be flooded so he shouldn't move there because climate change?
I thought the Senator just made that up to be silly...
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/27/19 03:55 AM

Did you happen to notice that Daily Mail article is dated 2019 but is actually a recycled 2014 article using quotes from 2006 and 2009?

This is a much more current source: (August 15th, 2019)
Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis

Quote:
At mid-month, Arctic sea ice extent is tracking close to 2012, the year with the lowest minimum in the satellite record. Sea ice volume is also tracking at low levels.


It also has the great advantage of NOT BEING A TABLOID! From Wikipedia:

Quote:
The Daily Mail has been widely criticised for its unreliability, as well as printing of sensationalist and inaccurate scare stories of science and medical research, and for copyright violations.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/27/19 09:27 PM

Lotta places don't allow Wiki as a source.

I think the Senator is trolling us. But it's cool, it's fun having him around. You almost forget that there are people out there who believe that nonsense.

Global warming is pretty much settled science. It's observable, measurable, and predictable. The cause has been pinpointed and preliminary efforts have begun to mitigate it. Denying it is pretty silly at this point.

But it may not be as bad as predicted...who knows.

Looks like Tropical Storm Dorian is making a beeline for my back door right now. I'm not evacuating yet(or ever). A quick glance at the cracked crystal ball says it's gonna veer right and drench Greenland with warm tropical winds and rain. Unless I''ve got it turned the wrong way and it's gonna go west of me. It's an ancient artifact, it doesn't have auto flip.

Posted by: Senator Hatrack

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/27/19 10:42 PM

Originally Posted By: Greger
Lotta places don't allow Wiki as a source.

I think the Senator is trolling us. But it's cool, it's fun having him around. You almost forget that there are people out there who believe that nonsense.

Global warming is pretty much settled science. It's observable, measurable, and predictable. The cause has been pinpointed and preliminary efforts have begun to mitigate it. Denying it is pretty silly at this point.

But it may not be as bad as predicted...who knows.
Why is global warming settled science? Because you believe it? Because of the hockey stick graph? Or is it because 97% of "climate scientists" say it is?

No denying it is not silly. It isn't because it hasn't been proven and the claims made by the climate scientists, as you said, might be exaggerated. When the cause of global cooling and global warming are blamed on the same, the use of fossil fuels, the credibility of the claims are very questionable.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/27/19 10:54 PM

Originally Posted By: Senator Hatrack
No denying it is not silly. It isn't because it hasn't been proven and the claims made by the climate scientists, as you said, might be exaggerated. When the cause of global cooling and global warming are blamed on the same, the use of fossil fuels, the credibility of the claims are very questionable.

Denying it without any scientific basis seems like it just might be silly...

For the record, what do you think is going on, and what evidence do you have for your belief?
Posted by: Senator Hatrack

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/27/19 11:20 PM

Originally Posted By: logtroll
Originally Posted By: Senator Hatrack
No denying it is not silly. It isn't because it hasn't been proven and the claims made by the climate scientists, as you said, might be exaggerated. When the cause of global cooling and global warming are blamed on the same, the use of fossil fuels, the credibility of the claims are very questionable.

Denying it without any scientific basis seems like it just might be silly...

For the record, what do you think is going on, and what evidence do you have for your belief?


Climate change does and has happened. The history of climate change over the millenniums of the earth's existence make the idea that the use of fossil fuel is now causing it is far fetched. When Leif Ericsson, a very distant relative of mine, was exploring Greenland was called that because it had large areas of arable land. It doesn't have that today. No one was using fossil fuel in those days.

Here are some claims made by climate scientists in the 1970's saying that the use of fossil fuels will cause global cooling if the use of them is not stopped.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/01/global-cooling-compilation/
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/27/19 11:49 PM

So, no science... just a rumor about Greenland from a long time ago and some 50 year old speculation?

Nice work on the genealogy, though. I can only trace back through great grandparents.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/28/19 12:36 AM

Y'know "science" can never be right or wrong. Because it's never complete. Way back in the 70s scientists started noticing some wonky readings on the recording devices. They got the part right about the climate changing and they got the part right about fossil fuels being the cause of it. But they didn't have enough data yet to predict which way the climate would swing. They've got the data now.

They were right then and they're right now. But there is a lot more to be learned. Nothing they're learning seems to point toward it all being a Chinese hoax though.
Posted by: Senator Hatrack

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/28/19 01:02 AM

Originally Posted By: logtroll
So, no science... just a rumor about Greenland from a long time ago and some 50 year old speculation?

Nice work on the genealogy, though. I can only trace back through great grandparents.

No, it is not a rumor. There were farms on Greenland.
https://archive.archaeology.org/online/features/greenland/

Did you look at the list of articles in the link I posted? (For some strange reason most of the articles from the LA Times, NY Times, and Washington Post have been removed from those newspaper's websites.)
http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/ny-times-1975-05-21.pdf
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/28/19 01:28 AM

I am very curious as to why some people work so hard to ignore the preponderance of science in favor of weird propaganda.
Posted by: Senator Hatrack

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/28/19 01:42 AM

Originally Posted By: logtroll
I am very curious as to why some people work so hard to ignore the preponderance of science in favor of weird propaganda.

A publication of the Archaeological Institute of America is weird propaganda?
https://archive.archaeology.org/online/features/greenland/
An article from the NYT, quoting the National Academy of Sciences, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and other scientific organizations is weird propaganda?
http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/ny-times-1975-05-21.pdf
If those articles were supporting the claim of global warming they would be accepted as "settled science." But since they are not they are weird propaganda. Do I detect a double standard here?
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/28/19 01:52 AM

“Some farms” does not logically imply that Greenland was substantially ice free. Some of the Greenland ice sheets are 3km thick and have been there for hundreds of thousands of years.

And newspaper articles from 49 years ago need to be put in context with current science.

You have your mind made up and are desperately grasping for anything to confirm your bias.

Why is your mind made up?
Posted by: Senator Hatrack

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/28/19 02:00 AM

Originally Posted By: logtroll
“Some farms” does not logically imply that Greenland was substantially ice free. Some of the Greenland ice sheets are 3km thick and have been there for hundreds of thousands of years.

And newspaper articles from 49 years ago need to be put in context with current science.

You have your mind made up and are desperately grasping for anything to confirm your bias.

Why is your mind made up?

The article from the Archeology website did not say that all of Greenland was ice free. Do you read the articles before you comment on them? The article from 49 years ago is to put the current science in context. You are ignoring information you don't like to confirm your bias, logtroll.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/28/19 02:06 AM

If that’s what you want to believe. I have learned that you folks are impenetrable when it comes to facts and discussion. Guess I’ll quit wasting time and energy, if that suits you?
Posted by: Senator Hatrack

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/28/19 03:23 AM

Originally Posted By: logtroll
If that’s what you want to believe. I have learned that you folks are impenetrable when it comes to facts and discussion. Guess I’ll quit wasting time and energy, if that suits you?

Thank you for showing that it is you that has the closed mind logtroll. You cannot, you refuse to, you completely reject anything that questions the idea of global warming. Since I don't automatically accept what you believe you think any further discussion of this is a waste of time. If you want to run away from the discussion that is up to you. Should you do that whatever you say from now on has little or no credibility with me.
Posted by: rporter314

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/28/19 03:35 AM

Like I typed in another thread .... there is no way anyone can conduct an intelligent discussion with a climate denier who relies on propaganda and ideology.

Please stay away from "news" articles about climatology and stick to the scientific studies.
Posted by: Senator Hatrack

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/28/19 03:38 AM

Originally Posted By: rporter314
Like I typed in another thread .... there is no way anyone can conduct an intelligent discussion with a climate denier who relies on propaganda and ideology.

Please stay away from "news" articles about climatology and stick to the scientific studies.


Another shining example of a closed mind.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/28/19 07:22 AM

Everybody here just thinks you must be trolling us with your 50 year old newspaper articles. That's okay. We used to have a great troll here at Reader Rant who stayed in character for years. He preferred "the good old days" too, but for him that meant The Gilded Age. Quite hilarious!
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/28/19 03:27 PM

Originally Posted By: Senator Hatrack
Originally Posted By: rporter314
Like I typed in another thread .... there is no way anyone can conduct an intelligent discussion with a climate denier who relies on propaganda and ideology.

Please stay away from "news" articles about climatology and stick to the scientific studies.


Another shining example of a closed mind.


An open mind is one apparently one that is unhindered by facts.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/28/19 03:54 PM

Global temperatures rising is a fact.

Ice sheets melting is a fact.

Rising sea levels...fact.

Increased CO2 in the atmosphere, fact.

I'm willing to compromise and admit that it might not be as bad as predicted. I do, above all, like to look at all the facts available before I make up my mind.

But sheer denial based on the opinions of journalists in centuries gone by does little to assuage my fears that maybe this time the human race has gone a bit too far. people tried to farm in Northern Ontario too. They starved.

It seems your denial is based primarily on ideology. Any attempt to mitigate climate disaster would effectively limit trade. I think you'd see Madison jump ship in a heartbeat when it came to saving the nation and the planet. But perhaps he'd rather die than submit to any limitation of trade and see the world burn if his particular ideology was not the one to triumph.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/20/19 12:50 PM

Anybody else participating in a climate action event today?

I was on a panel yesterday presenting on Things You Can Do to draw down atmospheric CO2. It was well attended and folks appreciated the presentations but I didn’t get the feeling that anybody was motivated to actually do anything.

“Cultural entrenchment is strong among them, Obi-wan...”
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/20/19 04:03 PM

I'm just sitting here trying not to consume much of anything or use any energy whatsoever.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/20/19 06:10 PM

According to my evaluation spreadsheet, you are doing more than anyone else here to fight climate change. But make some noise about it!
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/22/19 04:47 AM

Quote:
Anybody else participating in a climate action event today?


I didn't attend an event, but I actually did something. I fed 30.46 KWH of electricity into the grid today. So far my solar panels have supplied SDG&E with over 2.6 MegaWatt hours of electricity they didn't have to generate. Most of their generation uses natural gas. so it's equivalent to about 2600 pounds of CO2 not emitted.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/22/19 01:13 PM

I went to one of these in my town. It was really quite moving to be standing in a crowd of passionate young people who are truly aware and concerned about what is happening. The sad thing is that no one actually seems to know what to do, except protest and demonstrate. About half of the cars passing by honked in support. Maybe 10% scowled and made negative gestures.

(I recently took in a MAGA webinar called “Evaluation of Crowd Size at Rallies” - using the Trump Totally Science-Free Method I came up with 30,000 demonstrators in the park and another million in a line stretching around the block waiting to get in. No one has ever seen anything like it.)
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/22/19 02:27 PM

Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
I didn't attend an event, but I actually did something. I fed 30.46 KWH of electricity into the grid today. So far my solar panels have supplied SDG&E with over 2.6 MegaWatt hours of electricity they didn't have to generate. Most of their generation uses natural gas. so it's equivalent to about 2600 pounds of CO2 not emitted.

Last night I cooked a chicken stuffed with sauerkraut on the charbecue. The process pyrolyzed 5 pounds of woody biomass and made 1.5# of sequesterable carbon. Doing the math that was a drawdown of 5.4 # of atmospheric CO2 and avoidance of about 5# of fossil fuel derived CO2 from not using propane. It also represented .00025 acre of forest fire fuels reduction. It also made $1.50 worth of a high value soil amendment that will save water and increase productivity in the garden.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 10/11/19 12:29 PM

We passed a milestone yesterday, successfully making biochar feedstock pellets from juniper slash. You need to put your geek on to appreciate this - it has been a goal of mine for fifteen years to develop a complete system that will utilize “liability biomass” and turn it into a valuable and useful product. I didn’t have any doubt that it could be done, but it’s a link in the system chain that has been missing.

You know the brush that fuels California’s chronic wildfires? That is now feedstock for an energy and biochar system that will draw down atmospheric CO2, save water, regenerate soils, create jobs, save energy, and make money.

We still have a long way to go to actually commercialize the system. The current version of capitalism that controls everything is geared to support new technologies with a lot of money backing them far more than it supports good ideas with a wide range of benefits.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 10/12/19 06:21 PM

Nebraska Forest Service To Hold Biochar Demonstration


link
Posted by: pdx rick

Re: Global warming predictions - 10/12/19 06:36 PM

Quote:
We still have a long way to go to actually commercialize the system.


Originally Posted By: Greger
Nebraska Forest Service To Hold Biochar Demonstration


coffee
Posted by: pdx rick

Re: Global warming predictions - 10/12/19 07:31 PM

Originally Posted By: Greger
I'm just sitting here trying not to consume much of anything or use any energy whatsoever.

I could put Rocksus on a treadmill with a Kong tennis ball in front of his face, and generate enough electricity to light-up the entire east coast seaboard. smile

..or just one light bulb. Hmm

smile
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 10/12/19 09:46 PM

Originally Posted By: Greger
Nebraska Forest Service To Hold Biochar Demonstration


link

That behemoth has been "demonstrated" all over the country and no one wants it. It's basically an overhyped biomass disposal unit that creates more CO2 from the fossil fuel inputs than it saves in biochar - and it wastes all of the generated heat.

But you can own your own for a mere $600,000!
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 10/12/19 11:09 PM

Florida needs these for hurricane debris removal
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 10/12/19 11:59 PM

Originally Posted By: Greger
Florida needs these for hurricane debris removal

It's based on a device known as an "air curtain burner" that burns large quantities of biomass with very little smoke. They have modified it with a bunch of expensive add-ons that result in the capture of about 5% of the material as biochar.

Our system utilizes all of the heat and yields 30% biochar.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 10/13/19 12:16 AM

It will do nothing to mitigate global warming.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 10/13/19 02:17 PM

I think my point was that there is beginning to be a lot of interest in bio-char, The Nebraska Forest Service has expressed an interest in it and I suppose other states might be looking into it as well. The Great Plains Biochar Initiative looks like an interesting prospect and even if this particular piece of machinery is a fail there will be others, like yourself, creating other machines that won't fail.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 10/13/19 02:32 PM

Originally Posted By: Greger
I think my point was that there is beginning to be a lot of interest in bio-char, The Nebraska Forest Service has expressed an interest in it and I suppose other states might be looking into it as well. The Great Plains Biochar Initiative looks like an interesting prospect and even if this particular piece of machinery is a fail there will be others, like yourself, creating other machines that won't fail.

I'm in contact with the Nebraska Forest Service and we might have an opportunity to build a system for a large greenhouse operation there. They also have a large federal grant to investigate and certify the feeding of biochar to livestock. The supplier of the biochar they are using for that is in Wyoming and we are in discussions about building him a system to replace the one he is currently using.

Things are moving, but slowly. If I had the financial and PR backing that The Beast has, we'd be global by now.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 10/13/19 08:27 PM

Looks like the beast will likely end up rusting in a field, I wasn't tryin' to start a fight, this just popped up on my phone and was about bio-whatever....crazy
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 10/13/19 08:47 PM

Geez, I didn't think you wanted to fight. That might be kinda funny, though, two old codgers tripping over their shoelaces and huffing and puffing around in slow circles trying to remember "yo mama" insults......

rolleyes
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 12/01/19 01:25 PM

Check this out - does it give you some hope that humans will respond and adapt?

IMF’s plan to mitigate climate change
Quote:
In the fight against climate change, no one can stand on the sidelines

I offer one question for you to keep in mind while reading the article: “What does this plan offer me as a personal act of participation?” You know, what can I do to get off of the sidelines and into the game?

Quote:
The IMF is stepping up its efforts to deal with climate risk. Our mission is to help our members build stronger economies and improve people's lives through sound monetary, fiscal and structural policies. We consider climate change a systemic risk to the macroeconomy and one in which the IMF is deeply involved through its research and policy advice.



For myself, I have no real faith that the “leaders” of humanity have the ability to come up with solutions for the climate crisis that will allow the flock of seven billion to continue to “safely graze” in our comfort zone.

Quote:
Sheep may safely graze
The bluebirds have chased the vultures from the sky
Sheep may safely graze
The day is merely gone now and closed its eyes
Sheep may safely graze, my boy
All the fishes are leaping into the nets

Sheep may safely graze
This, my darling, is as good as it gets
Sheep may safely graze
All the lost children will be found in time
Sheep may safely graze, my boy
Close your eyes, your daddy is by your side

If you shouldn't wake tomorrow
The fences are all torn down
The woods are full of howling beasts
And there ain't nobody around

And everything seems foreign
To your little ways
That's just the gods above
Making it save to graze

The fox has its hole
The bird has its nest
But the son of man has no place
To lay his head and rest


Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 12/01/19 02:30 PM

The author of the article linked above makes an annual salary of $450,000. My Trollworks venture had a total operating budget last year of $125,000 (materials, utilities, travel, salaries, rent, etc.) and is demonstrating a technological and social system that improves the environment, displaces fossil fuels, and draws down CO2 from the atmosphere - all on a community platform).

Whaddaya think... should I ask Kristalina Georgieva if she would like to invest?

I'm going to give it a try - stand by for a full report. We'll see if she's willing to put some skin in the game, or if she just wants to safely graze in her $450,000 a year rented pasture.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 12/01/19 02:50 PM

Already having issues with getting Kristalina to invest - I can't find any contact info for her... not that it was unexpected.

I will probably have to go in through a generic info@imf email, or something. Of course that means somebody in the mail room will screen whatever I send, and an investment solicitation to the CEO is unlikely to move up the food chain.

Let me try...
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 12/01/19 03:15 PM

SHEESH! I might be barking up the wrong tree. Not only can't I find contact info for Kristalina, I can't even find an email for any department or anyone on the IMF website that looks remotely related to facilitating on-the-ground climate crisis efforts.

I did learn that the average salary at the IMF is $250K, should be lots of investable dough floating around there. But all of the notable staff (possibly 100 of them) are academic style researchers. There is no way to tell if any of them are in the field of local community microeconomics (that wasn't a listed area of IMF research). I could really use some help modeling our approach...

Guess I'll toss in the towel on getting anyone at IMF off the sidelines and into my little climate mitigation game.

I wonder what, exactly, was Kristalina talking about in the article saying, "no one can stand on the sidelines", when sidelines seems to be all they know?

Posted by: chunkstyle

Re: Global warming predictions - 12/07/19 02:33 AM

So this just got reported on.
I’m guessing this is one of many ‘feed back loops’ that we’ve been warned not to initiate.
I’m glad our politics have been laser focused on this singular threat to organized human existence.

Hate to think they’d be squandering insanely precious time on diversionary theatre.

https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/12/06/permafrost-hits-a-grim-threshold

Also in the news;

Nancy Pelosi threw angry rich lady shade at conservative Sinclair reporter.
#DontMessWithNancy goes viral on twitter.
Liberals jubilant. Spontaneous celebrations broke out across the forbidden city.

‘Getting back to normal all but guaranteed in 2020’ says smart guy spokesperson from ‘Americans for America’ Think tank.

Markets ended the day in bull market territory.

Good times
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 12/08/19 03:00 PM

#COP25Madrid
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 12/10/19 10:20 PM

A colleague of mine is coordinating the Urban Drawdown Initiative.
Posted by: chunkstyle

Re: Global warming predictions - 12/31/19 11:42 AM

Happy new year...

Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 12/31/19 11:05 PM

Looks like we'd feel right at home down there.
Posted by: chunkstyle

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/01/20 04:50 PM

S’funny how the spread of neoliberal political economics have created reactionary authoritarian crises around the world.
Too bad Mr Potters policies were picked over George Baily’s as the reasonable, bipartisan approach to governance by voters.
Then again, Potter owned all the newspapers, TV networks and funded a crap ton of brain worm think tanks.
Poor George Bailey. He never had a chance really.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/01/20 06:05 PM

And so I wonder...are Australians learning from this or are they like Americans?
Posted by: chunkstyle

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/01/20 07:35 PM

Funny thing, empires.
Some stuff radiates out while other things drift back.
My guess is they’re following our trajectory and not so much influencing it.
Posted by: chunkstyle

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/01/20 10:37 PM

Whoops!
Misread your post Gregor. (Suffering a cracked molar on new years day..)

Yeah, Australia should be an interesting bell weather to how climate change impacts will affect the politics.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/02/20 01:58 AM

It always was a sun-burnt land. If they get any warmer, it's going to be untenable. They'll all end up bobbing in the surf, watching their towns burn down. Happening here and there already.

Sounds like they need a big fire break around each town. Like a kilometer-wide band of solar panels maybe. Then they would have more power to desalinate seawater.
Posted by: Hamish Howl

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/02/20 03:17 AM

Originally Posted By: Greger
And so I wonder...are Australians learning from this or are they like Americans?


My experience with Australia is that 70% of the population likes this s***, and the other 30% are horrified.
Posted by: chunkstyle

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/03/20 02:42 AM

Looks like Morrison found some of those 30%...


Prime minister heckled
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/03/20 08:18 PM

Quote:
bell weather
That's bellwether. A wether is a castrated ram. They put a bell around his neck and he leads the flock of sheep.
A bellwether is a sign of what's to come. usually some nutless assh*le leading a bunch of witless sheep.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/04/20 10:33 AM

He's usually leading them into the slaughterhouse, but then gets to slip out the side door so he can do it again.
Posted by: Ujest Shurly

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/04/20 12:48 PM

Kind of like President Donald (...) Trump* and the Republican Party?



*Impeached
Posted by: jgw

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/04/20 07:29 PM

Unfortunately neither the weather, nor the environment, are going to get cleaned up. I think this is a given. There has been a lot of talk, plans, agreements, promises, etc. but, in reality, not a whole lot to actually fix anything. This being the case eventually the geo-engineers will begin 'fixing' things. An interesting aside to this is the simple fact that, if they screw up, we will all die!

If you are not familiar with geo-engineering google "geo engineering" and read all about it.
Posted by: chunkstyle

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/06/20 04:20 AM

Australian PM Scott Morrison,tries to get ahead of his incompetent handling of Australia’s bush fires as only someone who cut his teeth in the tourism and hospitality industry knows how. He made a cheap ass video with poorly chosen, royalty free music trac accompaniment:

Video here
Posted by: chunkstyle

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/06/20 04:23 AM

The public response so far:



Someone recently quipped the world is now being run by property managers, tourist and hospitality consultants and military contractors.

Feels about right..
Posted by: chunkstyle

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/08/20 07:35 PM

In case you haven't seen some of the devastation of the animals down under.
Pretty uncut video:

No one gets out alive
Posted by: Hamish Howl

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/09/20 03:04 PM

I spent from 2015-2018 working directly on water management changes with respect to climate change, and worked on it part time for 5 years prior to that.

The consensus my coworkers and I arrived at is that the "everyone dies within X years" posturing hurts the effort more than helps it. Climate change isn't an event, it's a process, and it can be measured by a measurable decline in people's standards of living, from the bottom up...AND an increase in weather-created (or modified) disasters.

If you had told me in 2000 that a hurricane would trash an American city and we'd just leave it trashed, I'd have said you had a screw loose. If you had told me that a small city would burn down and nothing at all would be done afterward, I'd have called you crazy.

But here we are.

This s*** going on in Australia and the American Southwest is the new normal. It's how things are.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/16/20 02:48 PM

CLEAN Future Act

The establishment Democrats answer to the Green New Deal.
Posted by: Jeffery J. Haas

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/16/20 03:14 PM

Originally Posted By: logtroll
CLEAN Future Act

The establishment Democrats answer to the Green New Deal.


The Green New Deal was a proposal cooked up without the luxury of a massive and well funded think tank, you know, the ones that spend every single day assembling polished and gavel-ready legislation that the congress critters don't even bother reading before voting on it.
What good would that do? If they read it, they might have objections, and when one of those massive think tanks hands you that packet, they don't intend for any mere congressman or senator to think or have objections...that's what gets you primaried by those think tanks!
No sir, you take the packet and the money and you do as you're told, that's what you do.

The Green New Deal was hatched at AOC's kitchen table, and although it distinctly lacked any polish, it also had some authenticity, like someone really cared.

I can't wait to smell the mimeo ink on this CLEAN Future Act.
I wonder which think tanks helped out on it.
Posted by: jgw

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/16/20 07:03 PM

I am no longer convinced there is any normal at all. Normal's out the window. What scares me is that, eventually, the geo engineers are going to be called on simply because we humans simply do not have the capacity to do the right things.

This is, actually, no surprise..........
Posted by: Hamish Howl

Re: Global warming predictions - 01/20/20 10:13 PM

Originally Posted By: Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted By: logtroll
CLEAN Future Act

The establishment Democrats answer to the Green New Deal.


The Green New Deal was a proposal cooked up without the luxury of a massive and well funded think tank, you know, the ones that spend every single day assembling polished and gavel-ready legislation that the congress critters don't even bother reading before voting on it.
What good would that do? If they read it, they might have objections, and when one of those massive think tanks hands you that packet, they don't intend for any mere congressman or senator to think or have objections...that's what gets you primaried by those think tanks!
No sir, you take the packet and the money and you do as you're told, that's what you do.

The Green New Deal was hatched at AOC's kitchen table, and although it distinctly lacked any polish, it also had some authenticity, like someone really cared.

I can't wait to smell the mimeo ink on this CLEAN Future Act.
I wonder which think tanks helped out on it.


The think tank I'm associated with is most definitely not involved.

This will be handled by think tanks run by Exxon.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/16/20 02:34 PM

And the U.S. is da WINNAH!!!

If only there was something we can do to draw down CO2 from the atmosphere...
Posted by: Irked

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/16/20 04:55 PM

Like the virus charts, this shows America way out in front of the rest of the world, proving once again what a truly terrific, beautiful, very strong job the greatest-president-ever is doing!
Posted by: jgw

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/16/20 06:11 PM

He is also fulfilling every long term wet dream the conservatives have ever had. I the left can't take the White House this time around its on them! Most of what he is doing can be seen or will be seen. He has, for instance, reduced drinking water standards! Hopefully the Dems have the very long list of offenses against EVERYBODY and starts to mention 5 or 6 every ad. So far I haven't seen it but I continue to hope and believe that the Dems will actually go after the vote and educate the loons.

I also expect that there should be, in the next two months a lot of parents who sent their children to school in the south, at the bidding of their lord and mast, and now have school children who have been sick and saddled with physical and mental problem they will get to live with for the rest of their lives. This, I assume, should help the Dem cause as well?

On the other hand............
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/16/20 09:08 PM

Why do you imagine that it is the Democrat's duty to "educate the loons"?

They are as busy as the other side trying to pull the wool over everyone's eyes.

And don't be calling the Democrats "the left" either, because there is nothing "left" about them. They are a purely centrist organization and they are fully owned and operated by corporate interests.

Democrats have actively spurned any candidates with progressive views or agendas...invariably funding and supporting their centrist opponents in primary races. You're going to need to look beyond what passes for opposition to the authoritarian right, Democrats are craven placeholders for what should be the battle of our lifetimes.

No such battle is going to occur. Big money has complete control and voters haven't the balls to elect candidates capable of governing.
Posted by: jgw

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/17/20 07:28 PM

Statements in order:

The Dems should educate the loons because somebody should and they get the job. Who would you suggest, a religious leader or a member of QANON?

I am not really sure what side you are on so I have no idea who the "other side" is. As far as I can tell you are a side of one? Just can't tell.

I consider that we have two sides, Right and Left. You can quibble it to death but that is reality.

Democrats have spurned candidates that run their mouths spouting stuff that will lose them elections. You are assuming that whatever side you are on is the ONLY side and everybody belongs. That is simply not true and, I suspect, you know it.

Ahhh! a revelation! We are all doomed and don't stand a chance because all big money is against us and we stand no chance. I apologize, I thought you were taking a side, I was wrong, you have no side and we are all doomed.

I have serious questions as to whether the Dems can win the election but I am hoping that they do as the alternative is a place you already seem to be in. I prefer not to be there until Trump wins. THEN I will join your side of hopelessness. I guess its just a matter of degree.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/18/20 01:15 AM

Or join Gregor's exodus to Costa Rica.

Back on topic: 130 degrees in Death Valley today. Highest temperature on Earth.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/18/20 01:29 AM

Quote:
The Dems should educate the loons because somebody should and they get the job.
When you say the Dems, just who are you talking about? Pelosi is the top "Dem" in the land...has she assumed the mantle of top educator of climate science deniers? Chuck Schumer?
I'm pretty sure both of them laughed off the Green New Deal. But that was about addressing climate science and that's an issue that will lose elections...So what "Dems" are responsible for this education? Certainly not AOC because she's one of those mouth spouters on the left that you hate so much....except you believe that you are the "left" because you're a Dem yourself and apparently that makes it YOUR job to educate the climate science deniers. Good luck with that.

We have a two party system. Neither party could be considered left wing because both are controlled by industry, corporations, and billionaires. You don't even begin to lean left until you embrace certain maxims put down by Marx and Engles. Certain truths that became evident in both the French and the Russian revolutions.

Are the Democrats slightly less bougie than the Republicans?

That's a weak maybe. Both parties are stubbornly centrist in their respective platforms. Authoritarianism can go both ways...Castro was a Marxist, a leftist, a revolutionary...and a staunch authoritarian once in power. I truly wish Che had lived to temper Fidel's rule by the fist.

We either learn from history or we repeat it....
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/18/20 09:01 PM

Some of the move to sustainable power is actually happening by itself: Solar panels and wind are actually the cheapest ways to generate power today! Oil, solar, and wind all get subsidies, but I think if government stopped all subsidies the cost relationship would still be the same.

What we need now is better ways to store the energy, since the sun doesn't shine or the wind blow all the time we want to use energy. I saw a very cool animation of a "battery" that uses a crane to stack big concrete blocks up into towers, and then un-stacks them to get the energy back. It's a gravity battery, like using two reservoirs at different elevations and pumps/generators to move the water.

I would like to be able to store 25 kwh from my solar panels, and feed it back into the grid between 4 pm and 9 pm to get the highest rate from the electric utility. I wonder how much weight I would have to lift on a rail track in my back yard to store that much energy.

Online example says 3360 pounds over a 300 foot fall. So a couple of IBCs full of water would do it. I have those. All I need is the steel rails, the motor/generator, and a long winch cable. Or put a cheap above ground pool at the top of my property and one at the bottom and shuffle water back and forth in PVC pipes. Or maybe I just wait a few years and buy Lithium batteries for a few thousand.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/19/20 01:56 AM

Renewables are growing by leaps and bounds, electric vehicles are outperforming internal combustion, Small nuclear reactors are only a couple decades out, coal is already dead and the fossil fuel industry is shrinking.

There's actually a lot of good news on the climate front.

Government has been instrumental in none of it.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/19/20 07:26 PM

And yet Trump is trying to get them drilling in the Alaska wildlife preserve.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/19/20 08:42 PM

Is there an oil shortage that might be mitigated by investing in drilling there? Last I heard they were capping wells and cutting production.

It's political theater. I hear he's also allowing more hunting on environmentally sensitive lands. Again, it's just political theater leading up to the election.

It's what his supporters want to hear.
Posted by: jgw

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/20 07:18 PM

I am told that Trump has brought back killing wolves from helicopters. I love a fair sport.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/20 09:48 PM

Let's get the wolves some ground-to-air missiles: Make it a fair fight. Actually, that's what I always admired about hunting Cape Buffalo in Africa. The win ratio is about even, hunter versus hunted.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/20 09:51 PM

Speaking about global warming, I see Port Arthur is about to be destroyed tonight. 20 foot storm surge in a city at 16 feet elevation, plus waves on top of that. Anybody who stays will probably be dead by morning.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 08/26/20 10:11 PM

I Googled it and the actual elevation of Port Arthur is 7 feet.

But a 20 foot storm surge in the gulf is unlikely. I doubt if it could actually rise above 12 feet. Storm surge is where the tide rises but the wind never lets it go out...Then it rises again! And the wind gives it a boost!

Unsurvivable is the word the weather forecasters are using. Still, many are refusing to evacuate. Some of the same folks who refuse to wear masks I imagine...

Republican Convention is surely being canceled so the president can focus on the emergency situation in Texas right...LOL...nawp...it's mostly black people there so he don't give a f*ck.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/16/20 11:42 PM

Just closed a contract to install a Trollworks Biochar+Energy boiler at a greenhouse run by a Navajo food sustainability and food security nonprofit called Covenant Pathways. They will heat their greenhouse for 4-seasons growing while avoiding fossil fuels, and make biochar for their operations, and draw down CO2 from the atmosphere. Pretty cool!

The funding is coming from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/16/20 11:54 PM

Cool! Does all the biomass come from greenhouse waste? Or do they need to import some wood? Is crop waste dense enough for the biochar process?

Robert Wood Johnson Foundation are some of the good guys, but I always got a Beavis and Butthead-style giggle out of their name.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/17/20 02:05 AM

It will be forest thinning and fuels reduction residuals. The kind of stuff that is largely fueling the forest fire pandemic.
Posted by: jgw

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/17/20 06:34 PM

There are mechanical powered forest rakes to clean out the forest underbrush. A good part of the California and Oregon fires are under Federal (Trump) control and management. Strangely enough the Dems seem to ignore that one.

If they really want to control these forest fires they not only have to clean up the forests bit also do a bit of judicial logging. The problem there is that the logging companies seem to prefer clear cutting.
Posted by: Ujest Shurly

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/17/20 07:33 PM

President Donald (...) Trump's* idea about raking the forest floor is as stupid as it is wrong and foolish.

The forest litter; filters water, holds water, decomposes to soil, provides long term nutrients, helps cool the forest, provides a barrier to reduce and control fires, helps lock carbon into the soil from the air and so much more.

Want to start to control climate change, leave/grow forests, re-forest fallow land, let the natural cycle, which includes fire, return. The forests have developed over millions of years, who the hell thinks man can come up with a better system.

* Impeached
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/17/20 07:51 PM

A lot of Southern California's "National Forest" is not forest at all: It's chaparral. Mostly sage, chemise, scrub oak, manzanita, etc. You can't "rake under the trees", because there are no real trees and no "under". You can thin it selectively, and remove some of the more flammable species. But you have to do that carefully, and manually. Like men with gasoline-powered brushcutters. (Which are a fire hazard themselves!) Run a bulldozer over it and you will get terrible erosion when the rain comes. Then grasses and weeds will sprout giving you a more dangerous fire situation.

If you have a good source of cheap water, you could scrape the areas that are not too steep to convert it to irrigated grassland, and then run livestock grazers on it. But where do you get cheap water? Hard to come by in Southern California.

The best solution would be letting brush fires burn, which would give us a patchwork of recently burned and unburned areas. Effectively, letting nature create backfires ahead of time. Then brush fires would just burn a small unburned area. But we tend to put out fires that burn up to the suburbs, and people fight man-made controlled burns near their neighborhoods in court, even though those are actually their best protection.

I've actually walked through a National Forest in the mountains where we do have evergreens, with a device that dripped burning kerosene on the forest litter to do a controlled burn. This was part of a Fire Ecology course, and overseen by Forest Service employees. It did clear a lot of the dangerous fuel load, and did not harm any trees. Forest Service employees do this all the time, despite Trump's fantasies. But they are careful to only do it when weather conditions are cool, moist, and not windy.
Posted by: jgw

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/18/20 05:54 PM

Actually its not. The problem is that I think he is referring to actual rakes and a lot of minions. Actually its done all the time on a large scale and there is machinery to aid in this.

The other problem is you are right about forest litter but it takes rain and when there is no rain,as in California, which has had a serious drought problem for several years (with some exception) that con't work. When you have a problem like that you really have to take care of the forests and thin the trees if you want to stop the fires.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/18/20 07:07 PM

The problem is not the forests. The problem is the people.

Thin and rake the people out of the forests and the fires will harm no one.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/18/20 08:28 PM

Maybe in Northern California, Oregon, and Washington. But "taking the people out of the forests" up there is pretty impractical because evergreen forests just sprout up on every square yard of land if you don't keep paying attention to it, and using it for something else.

In Southern California it's definitely a climate thing. Every late summer and early fall, the usual on-shore breeze at times turns around and you get a Santa Ana: 40-70 MPH very dry wind coming out of the deserts with 5% humidity and temperatures up to 116 F. Any spark event that would normally do nothing, starts a fire and those winds drive it toward the ocean. Nothing can stop it, but hitting a fire break like a previously burned area. And even then, burning embers are blown right over 12 lane freeways to start a fire on the other side. Fire fighters who get in front of the fire to stop it often died, so they don't get in front of it any more.

The exception is when it hits a suburb. There, fire fighters have paved roads, fire hydrants, defensible space around the houses (if homeowners have done their part), and fire resistant buildings. No quaint shake roofs, or wood siding, like you often see in rural cabins.

The presence or absence of people at the ignition point is unnecessary. Dry lighting, or downed power lines will do just fine. Sure, sometimes it's a burning cigarette tossed out of a car window, or a spark from a dragging chain or muffler. But any spark event will do, and there are many of them every day.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/18/20 09:25 PM

Quote:
it's definitely a climate thing


Well, yeah...but since we're doing nothing to stop climate change we'll need to do what our ancestors did when the land became uninhabitable.

Vacate it for a few tens of thousands of years until the climate changes again.
Posted by: jgw

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/19/20 05:11 PM

Interesting. The real problem is population - worldwide. Too many people. Not enough water, not enough food, not enough common sense. We just keep breeding more and more. Wars help but not really a lot.

The only real solution is probably space but who really knows. I live in a town that doesn't just border the Olympic national park but has some of the park in its city limits. That also means that we have a LOT of trees edging into the city limits as well. I have often wondered what is going to happen when it catches fire. That hasn't happened in the long time and, when it did, it didn't spread far as there is little wind in our direction as we are at the base of the Olympic Mountains as well which protects us. Still, its a worry but we also sit on top of the Cascadia Subduction Zone as well and when that goes off ...........

Here is a link to how safe we are: http://www.clallam.net/tsunami/documents/FactSheet_PortAngeles.pdf
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/19/20 05:24 PM

Quote:
Interesting. The real problem is population - worldwide. Too many people. Not enough water, not enough food, not enough common sense.


The problem of too many people will probably resolve itself over the next century or so.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/19/20 06:26 PM

It could actually be pretty fast. For example if the Gulf Stream current stops from all the ice melt. Or when the methane all boils out of the artic tundra. Then areas near the equator near sea level could simply be uninhabitable for most mammals. They would have to move North or South, or change elevation. There is a lot of pretty unoccupied land in Northern Siberia, Canada, and Southern South America. Right now, those places are too cold for almost everybody. After we warm up a lot, the Inuit will have to learn agriculture. The Mayans can teach them to grow corn and chile peppers.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/19/20 10:02 PM

Climate refugees will be met with the same resistance as refugees of all sorts always are. Dust Bowl wasn't that far back. Okies were not exactly welcomed into California despite their agricultural skills.

People like to pretend that they are somehow immune to the same forces that push other species to the brink of extinction.
Posted by: jgw

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/20/20 04:58 PM

There is world history on too many people. It causes a lot of misery AND a lot of war. Its just ramping up now, its gonna get a LOT worse before it shakes out and global warming is further throwing sand into the mix. The next years are going to get VERY interesting and a lot scaryer. We are, right now, are just seeing the results on our southern border as more and more crops are failing in central America and that one will continue to grow. Same with Africa and Europe. We now have over population, global warming, crop failures, water shortages, crazies in politics, and massive greed and that list is almost endless and there isn't a lot going on to offset it. I am talking worldwide!

I think there is a quote that goes something like; "I have seen the future and its not pretty"
Posted by: Greger

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/20/20 05:39 PM

Despite the dire direction the future might take, I remain optimistic.

Not so much in the near term that any of us might live to see...but in the long run, I think it's gonna be okay.

Between now and then we might see deaths numbering in the billions.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Global warming predictions - 09/20/20 09:04 PM

On the other hand, I've been watching some hippies building a farm in the mountains of Panama on YouTube and it looks pretty damned nice. Rains almost every day briefly. Lots of greenery. Cows grazing next door. No neighbors near them. Small town they can drive down to, where they have started a coffee bean roasting company. Hopefully, no bad guys figure out exactly where they are and pay them a visit.