Reinfection of COVID19

Posted by: Hamish Howl

Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/13/20 03:17 AM

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2...b0UKJRLo6eLwBJU

Apparently, there are now 11 confirmed cases in Korea of people being reinfected with the coronavirus.

I lean toward the guess that it hides in organs (as ebola does in the eyes and herpes does in the spinal cord) and comes back out when the victim's immune system falters.

Which means once a carrier, always a carrier.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/13/20 06:16 AM

Possibly, but a lot of this data can also be interpreted as bad testing. Our PCR tests have a false negative rate of about 30%. In Korea, their criteria for releasing Covid-19 patients is two negative tests a week apart. With a 30% false negative rate, what does this mean? The odds of being declared virus-free after those two tests (but you are really not), is 9%. So our clinical judgement of patient's recovery is highly suspect.

There have been a lot of clinical assumptions about Covid-19 that are just now being reconsidered. For example: It is only a lung infection, so if you have GI symptoms it is not Covid-19. You can rule out the disease with one nasal swab PCR test. You can't get it from food or the fecal-oral route. No need to do fecal DNA tests.

Totally wrong, but it's a lot nicer to do nasal swabs than to take anal ones.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/13/20 06:42 AM

It's also very poor medicine to tell patients to go home and come back if they get significant pneumonia. People that do come back to the hospital do very poorly and patients who end up on ventilators do much worse. Medicine needs to treat patients vigorously so they never develop pneumonia!

There actually is a way to do this. It worked in 1918! We even have actual statistics. Researchers compared the pneumonia and death rates of an infected army camp with a sanitarium that treated their Spanish flu patients with long hot baths every day. The sanitarium numbers were MUCH better than the army camp. They both had decent doctors, good food, bed rest, etc. The big difference was the heat treatment in the sanitarium prevented most patients from advancing into pneumonia. We also see the same effect in Finland, were just about everybody takes saunas to treat chest infections at home.

Apparently Western doctors resist the therapeutic value of hot water much like they resisted the crazy idea that you should wash your hands between examining patients!
Posted by: Jeffery J. Haas

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/13/20 07:47 PM

Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
It's also very poor medicine to tell patients to go home and come back if they get significant pneumonia. People that do come back to the hospital do very poorly and patients who end up on ventilators do much worse. Medicine needs to treat patients vigorously so they never develop pneumonia!

There actually is a way to do this. It worked in 1918! We even have actual statistics. Researchers compared the pneumonia and death rates of an infected army camp with a sanitarium that treated their Spanish flu patients with long hot baths every day. The sanitarium numbers were MUCH better than the army camp. They both had decent doctors, good food, bed rest, etc. The big difference was the heat treatment in the sanitarium prevented most patients from advancing into pneumonia. We also see the same effect in Finland, were just about everybody takes saunas to treat chest infections at home.

Apparently Western doctors resist the therapeutic value of hot water much like they resisted the crazy idea that you should wash your hands between examining patients!


I sure do hope that extended warm showers confer some benefit because believe it or not we no longer HAVE a tub in the house.
Only showers, with Karen's shower being big enough to park two motorcycles side by side. There used to be a tub but it got ripped out to accommodate handicap accessibility.

Maybe it's time to build a sauna?
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/13/20 08:11 PM

I think you could get the same effect with an electric blanket or a space heater in a very small room. Sort of an Arkansas sauna! The idea is to induce an artificial fever of about 104 F, because the innate immune system works better at that temperature. That's actually why we have fevers when the immune system detects an infection.

What is a sauna but a closet with a space heater in it? All the fancy wood paneling and benches are just for efficiency.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/13/20 09:07 PM

I've got a huge Jaccuzi tub but I dasn't get in it cause I'd never get back out.

Cattle waterers make great soaking tubs!
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/14/20 01:22 PM

Yeah, I've seen them online. I could probably pick one up at the local feed store. But my neighbor has an actual Jacuzzi he will give me for free. Maybe worth the hassle of moving it. But I need to put in a pile of solar water panels first. I'm not paying to heat that much water just so I can soak.

I get my first year's electric bill next month, so I will see how well the solar panels are working out. Then I'll think about solar hot water. That's going to be totally DIY. Already got a bunch of old sliding glass doors. I'll need the copper tubing, some lumber, and the EDPM pond liner for the hot water tank.
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/14/20 01:35 PM

Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
I'm not paying to heat that much water just so I can soak.

A person could heat a hot tub with a Biochar+Energy System and make money doing it...
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/14/20 02:18 PM

Originally Posted By: logtroll
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
I'm not paying to heat that much water just so I can soak.

A person could heat a hot tub with a Biochar+Energy System and make money doing it...

In case you just sneezed "horsesh!t" under your breath, heating 200 gallons of water with a temperature rise of 55 degrees F using a biochar making heater would consume about a dollar's worth of pellets and make about four dollars worth of biochar.

It would also sequester some 15 pounds of atmospheric CO2, if you put it in your garden.
Posted by: Jeffery J. Haas

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/14/20 02:26 PM

Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
Then I'll think about solar hot water. That's going to be totally DIY. Already got a bunch of old sliding glass doors. I'll need the copper tubing, some lumber, and the EDPM pond liner for the hot water tank.


Yeah, solar water heat is almost embarrassingly easy to do, at least out here on the Sunny West Coast anyway.
Posted by: Jeffery J. Haas

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/14/20 02:27 PM

Originally Posted By: logtroll
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
I'm not paying to heat that much water just so I can soak.

A person could heat a hot tub with a Biochar+Energy System and make money doing it...


I see another great opportunity!
Posted by: logtroll

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/14/20 02:38 PM

Originally Posted By: Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted By: logtroll
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
I'm not paying to heat that much water just so I can soak.

A person could heat a hot tub with a Biochar+Energy System and make money doing it...

I see another great opportunity!

For everybody! The great Democratization of Capitalism!!
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/14/20 04:35 PM

Quote:
solar water heat is almost embarrassingly easy to do, at least out here on the Sunny West Coast anyway.


Florida, too. For a very long while most people in South Florida had solar hot water heaters on their roofs. It is so sunny, even systems with just a tank and no panels worked.

If anybody is interested "1000 dollar solar water heater" in a web search gets you to a great site with many DIY projects that have all been working for their builders.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/23/20 03:55 PM

Journalists love to find scary quotes, and there are plenty of experts out there who want to include in their remarks some cautionary statements. But all these quotes about reinfection and non-immunity are just that. From what we know about other corona viruses, including SAR-COV1, people do develop IgM, IgG, and IgA antibodies, IgG sticks around for a few years (long enough for a vaccine to be available), and people with IgG do not get reinfected.

Sure, there are exceptions. The immune system is very complex, and we have autoimmune diseases that screw it up, patients taking immunosuppresants, and people with AIDS. So there will be exceptions. But those will most likely be rare. From a Public Health point of view, people get infected, develop antibodies, and then are immune for some number of years.

Several antiviral drugs look promising. That VA retrospective study that said more people died with hydroxychloroquine than without was garbage: They gave hydroxychloroquine to the sickest of the sick, way too late for a drug that helps prevent virus replication. They also gave no zinc, which is the whole point of using the zinc ionophore, hydroxychloroquine.

The early remdesivir studies look very good, and at least one of those is a double-blind study with a decent experimental design. And finally, patients who develop cytokine storm and go into ARDS have a standard RA immune system modifier drug that selectively knocks out interleukin-6 to calm the storm without interfering with their ability to develop antibodies.
Posted by: Greger

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/23/20 06:09 PM

Florida has been woefully slow about utilizing the vast amount of sunshine that beats down on our heads.

When I was a kid there were still a few of the old school rooftop water heaters in town but everything was going electric back then. There was a resurgence of them in the 80s with more modern panels and pumps, but that soon died out as electric and gas units were made more efficient.

I reckon they still sell em? It aint something anybody but Chunkstyle ever talks about.
Posted by: Jeffery J. Haas

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/23/20 07:25 PM

Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
Journalists love to find scary quotes, and there are plenty of experts out there who want to include in their remarks some cautionary statements. But all these quotes about reinfection and non-immunity are just that. From what we know about other corona viruses, including SAR-COV1, people do develop IgM, IgG, and IgA antibodies, IgG sticks around for a few years (long enough for a vaccine to be available), and people with IgG do not get reinfected.

Sure, there are exceptions. The immune system is very complex, and we have autoimmune diseases that screw it up, patients taking immunosuppresants, and people with AIDS. So there will be exceptions. But those will most likely be rare. From a Public Health point of view, people get infected, develop antibodies, and then are immune for some number of years.

Several antiviral drugs look promising. That VA retrospective study that said more people died with hydroxychloroquine than without was garbage: They gave hydroxychloroquine to the sickest of the sick, way too late for a drug that helps prevent virus replication. They also gave no zinc, which is the whole point of using the zinc ionophore, hydroxychloroquine.

The early remdesivir studies look very good, and at least one of those is a double-blind study with a decent experimental design. And finally, patients who develop cytokine storm and go into ARDS have a standard RA immune system modifier drug that selectively knocks out interleukin-6 to calm the storm without interfering with their ability to develop antibodies.


I am not entirely sure but I could swear I heard that there were two separate VA studies, so it is possible they screwed up one of them, or even both. I'll have to check again, because that's right down our alley, what with Karen and all. If that drug is dangerous, I'd be hesitant about them giving it to her if she got sick.

Hate to say it but it looks as if the Remdesivir study is looking lke a bust, according to leaked data from the Gilead Pharmaceuticals study.

Quote:
“A draft document was provided by the authors to WHO and inadvertently posted on the website and taken down as soon as the mistake was noticed. The manuscript is undergoing peer review and we are waiting for a final version before WHO comments,” said WHO spokesperson Tarik Jasarevic.


Gilead is pushing back, however. So maybe it might be another case of jumping the gun?

Quote:
According to Gilead spokesperson Amy Flood, the company believes “the post included inappropriate characterization of the study” since it cannot “enable statistically meaningful conclusions” since it was stopped too early. She added that “trends in the data suggest a potential benefit for remdesivir, particularly among patients treated early in disease.”

“Many studies are being run to test remdesivir, and this one will not be the final word,” Stat reports.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 04/24/20 05:05 AM

It's tricky: When you are testing an antiviral, you need subjects that have some symptoms but not ready to go to the hospital. You give the drug to half of them and give a placebo to the other half using a double blind process. Then you see what the outcome is. If the antiviral works, then most of the patients who received it never have to go to the hospital. But most patients with symptoms never have to go to the hospital anyway. So you might see something like 15% in a certain age group go with placebo, versus 5% go with the drug. That would be a huge result. It may be a little more subtle.
Posted by: jgw

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/02/20 06:28 PM

Apparently the reinfections in South Korea weren't. If you google "south korea covid-19 reinfection" you will find a lot of stuff like:
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242432561.html

Basically - no reinfections........
Posted by: GreatNewsTonight

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/03/20 12:35 AM

Yes, the reinfections were never proven. Hopefully they are not occurring.
-------
About the VA study: while I haven't read it, it is true that the objection was made that the subjects who received HCQ were sicker, but I also read somewhere that even when adjusted for that, the effect of poorer outcomes for the treated cohort remained. And there's been other studies showing no efficacy of HCQ. By now, I have little hopes for HCQ.
-------
About remdesivir, it does seem like a true RCT has shown advantage although modest.
Posted by: jgw

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/03/20 07:26 PM

Given the number of ongoing investigations and tests I fully expect better 'stuff' down the line. My fond hope is that more will be available when I get infected. I fully expect to be infected, unless they actually come up with a vaccine before infection. Either way I am in a pretty good place to be waiting. My entire county has had a whole 18 covid-19 infections so far and 16 of those have been cured. The real problem is testing. That's been the main problem since the start of this thing.

I have often wondered why Jackass Trump has fought testing with such vigor and sly. It really doesn't make much sense. It actually seems like he wants more people to die! While not true in Washington state it would also seem that the majority of cases, that die, are the elderly, the poor, and the colored. If that is true then, I guess, that means that the answer is that he is trying to just kill off the opposition. Its kinda like all the folks that are marching to do away with the efforts to contain and slow down Covid-19. One of the things they seem to love to do is to not wear any protection, except for being armed, and mass together in large groups. Jackass Trump, obviously, is supporting these efforts in a desperate bid to rebuild the economy before election. On the other hand I am sure that there are a lot of these so-called protestors are going to get the virus and some will die. I don't think he really wants to kill off his own supporters too?
Just another thing I just do not get!

There are constant reports of these protestors dying due to Covid-19 but this hasn't slowed them down even a little bit. It boggles........
Posted by: GreatNewsTonight

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/03/20 07:49 PM

Originally Posted By: jgw
Given the number of ongoing investigations and tests I fully expect better 'stuff' down the line. My fond hope is that more will be available when I get infected. I fully expect to be infected, unless they actually come up with a vaccine before infection. Either way I am in a pretty good place to be waiting. My entire county has had a whole 18 covid-19 infections so far and 16 of those have been cured. The real problem is testing. That's been the main problem since the start of this thing.

I have often wondered why Jackass Trump has fought testing with such vigor and sly. It really doesn't make much sense. It actually seems like he wants more people to die! While not true in Washington state it would also seem that the majority of cases, that die, are the elderly, the poor, and the colored. If that is true then, I guess, that means that the answer is that he is trying to just kill off the opposition. Its kinda like all the folks that are marching to do away with the efforts to contain and slow down Covid-19. One of the things they seem to love to do is to not wear any protection, except for being armed, and mass together in large groups. Jackass Trump, obviously, is supporting these efforts in a desperate bid to rebuild the economy before election. On the other hand I am sure that there are a lot of these so-called protestors are going to get the virus and some will die. I don't think he really wants to kill off his own supporters too?
Just another thing I just do not get!

There are constant reports of these protestors dying due to Covid-19 but this hasn't slowed them down even a little bit. It boggles........


Well, if the virus kills about 0.8% of all infected cases, maybe even fewer than that, Trump's calculation might be that fanning the flames of these protests in swing states with Democratic governors confers a big electoral advantage than the disadvantage of a few of his voters dying out.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/03/20 09:58 PM

I think he's not paying attention to WHO it kills. Numbers I hear are 80% asymptomatic, 10% need hospitalization, 5% need ICU. 3 men for every 2 women die. When age 70+ go on a ventilator, it's 97% lethal. So I think it's actually going to kill a lot of Trump voters. (And these are folks who DO vote every time.)

On the other hand, it's particularly lethal to obese Black men. This is probably not helped at all by their Vitamin D deficiencies. Every person with dark skin in America should start taking at least 2500 iu of Vitamin D3 every day. There's a buttload of peer-reviewed journal papers to support this.
Posted by: jgw

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/04/20 07:19 PM

I am not really convinced he actually has a clue as to what the hell is going on. He just knows that its been good to him as it has maintained his TV exposure so the Trump show remains a money maker for them that own TV.

Just in case. I am suggesting that the man is only interested in making sure the Trump show is THE show! He got cut once, and is working very hard so that doesn't happen again.

The only real question is whether he will win an Emmy.....
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/05/20 01:41 AM

Halting some government program until Trump understands what is going on, means halting it forever. We've actually seen this several times.
Posted by: jgw

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/05/20 06:44 PM

You have a lot more faith than I. I have never been convinced he understands ANYTHING! Well, other than his obvious superiority.
Posted by: GreatNewsTonight

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/07/20 08:36 PM

It's been explained today that people who test positive again after having been tested negative are shedding dead lung cells with virus particles and these are causing false positives of swab tests; the material collected includes these dead cells, although the person is no longer truly sick.

So far a true re-infection, that I know, hasn't been proven. Fortunately.
Posted by: pondering_it_all

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/22/20 01:21 AM

MedCram number 73 on YouTube features a South Korean study that looked at hundreds of people who were recovered but then tested positive on PCR: They found no intact viruses in them. They even looked at all their close contacts after recovery and found ZERO people infected. So this pretty much puts "reinfection" to bed. Doesn't happen or if it does it's very rare.
Posted by: GreatNewsTonight

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/22/20 04:18 AM

Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
MedCram number 73 on YouTube features a South Korean study that looked at hundreds of people who were recovered but then tested positive on PCR: They found no intact viruses in them. They even looked at all their close contacts after recovery and found ZERO people infected. So this pretty much puts "reinfection" to bed. Doesn't happen or if it does it's very rare.


Yay, that's great news!
Posted by: jgw

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/22/20 05:48 PM

Now all we need is a really good, quick, antibody test available to EVERYBODY! If we can get that then we will be on the way to success. That is because everybody that has antibody against covid-19 are in theory, done with Covid-19 and can neither get infected again nor can they spread it to others. There have been speculations that there are a LOT of folks who have had it and moved on. Many, we are told, don't even know that they had it in the first place. This means there is an entire cadre of folks who can work, and be in public spaces, with no fear of covid-19.

The problem is with the antibody test and I expect that one to get fixed pretty soon (probably more wishful thinking) <sigh>
Posted by: Greger

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/22/20 06:05 PM

The problem is the federal government and it's not gonna get fixed until November so buckle up and stay home.
Posted by: jgw

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/23/20 05:17 PM

Yah, not gonna fight that one. One thing that Trump has consistency on is tests, ALL tests. What comes out of his mouth are promises and then remarks about tests, none of which are either true nor in favor of. He REALLY is against them! I have no idea why. Had he dealt with the testing problem, a long time ago, we would have been a LOT further down the road and opening stuff up might almost make sense. Now, however, when nobody, basically, knows nuth'n (well, except in a kindofa macro scale)
Posted by: NW Ponderer

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/23/20 05:26 PM

Trump has never done well on tests... any of them. So he hates them. All of them. Tests provide data. And if there is one thing Trump despises it is data. When he was in school his tests demonstrated he didn't understand what he was being taught. Personality tests showed he was a sociopath with personality disorders. Tests, in Trump's mind, are bad, bad, bad.
Posted by: GreatNewsTonight

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/23/20 05:40 PM

Originally Posted By: jgw
Now all we need is a really good, quick, antibody test available to EVERYBODY! If we can get that then we will be on the way to success. That is because everybody that has antibody against covid-19 are in theory, done with Covid-19 and can neither get infected again nor can they spread it to others. There have been speculations that there are a LOT of folks who have had it and moved on. Many, we are told, don't even know that they had it in the first place. This means there is an entire cadre of folks who can work, and be in public spaces, with no fear of covid-19.

The problem is with the antibody test and I expect that one to get fixed pretty soon (probably more wishful thinking) <sigh>


The "a lot of folks" part is unproven. Sweden deliberately tried to create herd immunity by not going into lockdown. They have only 7% of the population with antibodies, as of now.

The CDC has just revised the idea that the number of cases is ten times bigger than the name of confirmed cases. As of now, we have tested 14 million people in the US and only 1.6 million came back positive. The idea that the contagion is much more widespread than we think, is losing traction.
Posted by: jgw

Re: Reinfection of COVID19 - 05/23/20 06:42 PM

The only way to prove any of this stuff is testing. Testing people and testing tests - forever or until we have all we need - both tests and results.

It seems to be getting a bit more complex that I had first thought.