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#213231 - 02/18/12 07:24 AM Gold - The US, and the World
itstarted Offline
old hand

Registered: 01/27/03
Posts: 6375
Loc: Florida/Illinois
Linking a few articles to offer a an outlook on the US and the World Economy... involving Gold as foreign policy catalyst that is working against the US...

The difference between in Gold in the 1980's and today

The unexpected flow of gold betweeen Iran and India

As we watch and listen to the political commentary about the economic recovery in the US, and the emphasis on jobs, and economic theories... putting together some more subtle factors may be more productive.

Very Simply... What if the experts and the politicians have it all wrong? What if... What if... Instead of the US restoring its manufacturing base, and regaining leadership based on the CURRENT strength of the US Dollar...

What if the other nations were building bridges and creating trade circles by using their own currency?

What if the trillions in US based debt, were to be devalued? What if our personal fortunes were to be supported with scrip?

Perhaps just goldbug talk. But what if it isn't?

I am aware that there have been numerous discussions about the subject. What I found unsettling was the thread that ran through all of them, that the US was somehow in control. Numan was chewed out for bringing up the alternative, that the future of the economy might be outer directed. I am not sure that he wasn't right.

Life is Good!

#213235 - 02/18/12 08:21 AM Re: Gold - The US, and the World [Re: itstarted]
Ardy Offline

Registered: 12/22/05
Posts: 11997
Loc: San Jose, Ca USA
Originally Posted By: itstarted
What I found unsettling was the thread that ran through all of them, that the US was somehow in control.

I missed that thread, link please

Numan was chewed out for bringing up the alternative, that the future of the economy might be outer directed. I am not sure that he wasn't right.

Numan has been chewed out numerous times.... usually because of his monomanina on one particular topic

I am not sure how anyone got the idea that the world is moving in a direction of ever greater US military, political and economic control. Certainly that has not been the trend of the last 40 years... and I see no reason why the trend lines would reverse.

That said, I also do not think it s obviously true that the US will collapse into a heap of rubble in the near term ... not do I think that increased strength of other countries necessarily implies that the US must surely collapse.

I wonder... is there room for a middle way... a way between absolute and complete US domination... or alternatively the US collapsing into a smoldering ruin?

Consider for example the following question... suppose that India had to for trade with either the USA or with Iran... which trading partner do YOU think they would choose? IT is true that India gets oil from iran, but I have heard rumors of an international oil market. surely India can buy their oil from elsewhere should they choose? Hmm On the other hand, India has massive facilities designed to provide back office and programming support for US firms.... In your view, what is the good alternative for India to utilize these facilities to earn revenue should they tell the USA to go F itself because India wants to buy its oil form Iran? Hmm IS that an alternative that India looks likely to pursue, or want? Hmm

Likewise China.... will china want to close it's ports to USA exports.... Sorry USA, we are through making cheap crxp for you? Is that a likely and desired path that China will want to pursue?

OK, gold is wonderful and all, but once india and china have all the gold in the world.... then what.... do they shut the country down and say game over, we got all the gold now, we win?

Given the size and importance of the USA as an export market.... please name the countries who will want the USA to disappear as a market for their goods?

I am not saying that this guarantees the survival and dominance of the USA... on the other hand, it is also not obvious to me that there is a great advantage for most nations if the USA were to disappear.

And given that most countries will not want the USA to disappear, I am suspicious that they will spend an inordinate amount of effort trying to achieve a goal that would not be in their apparent interest?
"It's not a lie if you believe it." -- George Costanza
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves. --Bertrand Russel

#213242 - 02/18/12 10:40 AM Re: Gold - The US, and the World [Re: itstarted]
loganrbt Offline
old hand

Registered: 02/20/08
Posts: 5850
Loc: Massaphuggintwoshirts
Again with the gold thing?
"The white men were as thick and numerous and aimless as grasshoppers, moving always in a hurry but never seeming to get to whatever place it was they were going to." Dee Brown

#213249 - 02/18/12 11:27 AM Re: Gold - The US, and the World [Re: Ardy]
itstarted Offline
old hand

Registered: 01/27/03
Posts: 6375
Loc: Florida/Illinois
My thinking is that the US is currently the basic conversion currency... strong through its continued acceptance, and exploited by the FED. What I took from the articles, was that this strength was tenuous at best, and subject to new alliances that may weaken the dollar.

As far as the military... The current and increasing rattling of sabres and beating of war drums, seems to me to be a departure from the past several years.

Now, as far as the idea of collapse... I'd agree that this would not be instantaneous, or even extreme, but my sense is that we are riding the crest of 60+ years of increased wealth and growth... The "crest" meaning something akin to "peak oil" or "unlimited prosperity" which has built an enduring infrastructure that will last into the future, but which needs continuous support. As with all historical empires and governments, subject to a fall. Whether a 500 year, or a 5 year event, change is inevitable. Current debt seems unsustainable... thus the "crest".

I looked at the articles as a scenario for change... decentralizing the financial operations of the global economy. Perhaps this is not correct, but then too, it may not be out of the question.

In any case, I, for one, don't follow any of the current financial theories, and keep my mind open to other possibilities.


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