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#231781 - 08/02/12 08:53 PM Obama Holds Big Lead Over Romney
Ozymanithrax Offline
member

Registered: 04/11/11
Posts: 1347
Loc: California
Quote:
Obama Holds Big Lead Over Romney
A new Pew Research survey shows President Obama opening up a wide lead over Mitt Romney in the presidential race, 51% to 41%.

Key findings: "By a 52% to 37% margin, more voters say they have an unfavorable than favorable view of Romney... Obama's image remains, by comparison, more positive -- 50% offer a favorable assessment of the president, 45% an unfavorable one."

Republicans nominated a candidate that nobody likes.
_________________________
ďIf you think you've got an inside track to absolute truth, you become doctrinaire, humorless and intellectually constipated." Saul Alinskey

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#231782 - 08/02/12 09:03 PM Re: Obama Holds Big Lead Over Romney [Re: Ozymanithrax]
Schlack Offline
veteran

Registered: 07/22/04
Posts: 9715
Loc: Ireland
Nate silver has it much closer

but currently giving obama a 70% chance of victory.
_________________________
"The basic tool for the manipulation of reality is the manipulation of words. If you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use the words."
(Philip K.Dick)


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#231789 - 08/02/12 09:32 PM Re: Obama Holds Big Lead Over Romney [Re: Schlack]
Ozymanithrax Offline
member

Registered: 04/11/11
Posts: 1347
Loc: California
Or you can go over to Andera Mitchel and see why all those polls are wrong, at least according to AM.
Quote:
Gallup reveals Obama in deep trouble with polling numbers in important swing states
All these oversampled Democrat polls trying to fool people into believing Obama is doing great in swing states is nothing more than a load of crap. One great example is Ohio, where recently skewed polls have shown Obama with sizable leads over Mitt Romney with an average of 8-11% more Democrats polled than Republicans. Obamaís approval rating in Ohio on Gallup over the first half of 2012 is just 44%. You donít win states with 44% approval ratings. In other states like Iowa, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Obama is only at 46% approval. In Nevada, New Mexico Obamaís approval is only 45%. In Colorado and New Hampshire itís only 43%. Even in what is expected to be a safe blue state like Oregon, Obama is only polling at 47%. So when you cut through all the BS of other biased polls, you can see Obama is in deep trouble, and with four more lousy jobs reports to come, those numbers arenít likely to improve.

Both sides have polls that show why Obama will win or lose.
_________________________
ďIf you think you've got an inside track to absolute truth, you become doctrinaire, humorless and intellectually constipated." Saul Alinskey

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#231815 - 08/02/12 11:54 PM Re: Obama Holds Big Lead Over Romney [Re: Ozymanithrax]
rporter314 Offline
old hand

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 6315
Loc: Highlands, Tx
Quote:
Both sides have polls

pay no attention to polls the right has rush, hannity etc who have already declared romney the winner
_________________________
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty

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#231820 - 08/03/12 12:19 AM Re: Obama Holds Big Lead Over Romney [Re: Ozymanithrax]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 15760
I think it was Fivethirtyeight that had a great analysis about how voter suppression efforts might have a big impact on the accuracy of the polling. I will try to relocate that article to provide a link, but my computer crashed, so I don't know how much excavation I will have to do.
_________________________
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich

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#231823 - 08/03/12 12:40 AM Re: Obama Holds Big Lead Over Romney [Re: Ozymanithrax]
Greger Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 13886
Loc: Florida
Quote:
All these oversampled Democrat polls trying to fool people into believing Obama is doing great in swing states is nothing more than a load of crap.

This is not a great analysis. While President Obama' job rating is less than stellar, Mitt Romney lacks the charisma to get voters off the couch in November.
Is Romney beginning to fade? That's what the current polling suggests.
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"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."ó Oscar Wilde

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#231826 - 08/03/12 01:06 AM Re: Obama Holds Big Lead Over Romney [Re: Schlack]
Happy Birthday logtroll Offline
veteran

Registered: 04/26/10
Posts: 8733
Loc: New Mexico (not old Mexico)
Originally Posted By: Schlack
Nate silver has it much closer

but currently giving obama a 70% chance of victory.

Nate's a natural... though he is so judgmental! You know, how he takes a look at the facts and draws some tentative conclusions that are constantly adjusted by emergent facts. Just like those crazy right-wingers!
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"You can't fix a problem until you understand what the problem is." Logtroll

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#231828 - 08/03/12 01:28 AM Re: Obama Holds Big Lead Over Romney [Re: Ozymanithrax]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 15760
That was an interesting piece of self-deception on fireandreamitchel.com, Ozy. Completely missing is the dismal values that Romney engenders in those same States: Negative Ratings For Obama, Romney Are High, But Little Moved By Attack Ads Views of Obama, Romney More Strongly Negative Than Positive

Obama at least engenders a positive net.
_________________________
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich

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#231841 - 08/03/12 03:43 AM Re: Obama Holds Big Lead Over Romney [Re: NW Ponderer]
Ozymanithrax Offline
member

Registered: 04/11/11
Posts: 1347
Loc: California
That is the thing about polls, they can be twisted more ways that a bad plot. Clearly, fireanddream was looking for a pony in a pile of dressage horse crap.
_________________________
ďIf you think you've got an inside track to absolute truth, you become doctrinaire, humorless and intellectually constipated." Saul Alinskey

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#231850 - 08/03/12 05:58 AM Re: Obama Holds Big Lead Over Romney [Re: Ozymanithrax]
Irked Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 12/14/05
Posts: 3465
Loc: Somewhere out in left field
The awful Truth is that Real America has been played for fools by an insidious Progressive infiltration of God's Own Party, a faction who would prefer that the president be allowed to continue to perpetrate an Alien, Socialist agenda on the American People rather than see a True Conservative win the Presidency. The Governor means well, but he just isn't an instinctive, True Conservative. One cannot hope to wrestle power from the usurpers by offering a blander version of the same Collectivist power grab. For Real America to once again emerge from under the yoke of oppression the Republican candidate needs to be a Real American. Look what is happening in Texas and Wisconsin and Florida and Maine, Virginia and South Carolina and so many other places across this country that are electing people who understand that their job as lawmakers is to dismantle the government so that Individuals and Markets are Truly Free and everyone can reach their True Potential.
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How eager they are to be slaves - Tiberius Caesar

Coulda tripped out easy, but I've changed my ways - Donovan

I consider myself to be a laid back type and quite tolerant on most issues - AB Breivik

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