Republicans nominated a candidate that nobody likes.

Nate silver has it much closer

but currently giving obama a 70% chance of victory.

Or you can go over to Andera Mitchel and see why all those polls are wrong, at least according to AM.

Both sides have polls that show why Obama will win or lose.

pay no attention to polls the right has rush, hannity etc who have already declared romney the winner

I think it was Fivethirtyeight that had a great analysis about how voter suppression efforts might have a big impact on the accuracy of the polling. I will try to relocate that article to provide a link, but my computer crashed, so I don't know how much excavation I will have to do.

This is not a great analysis. While President Obama' job rating is less than stellar, Mitt Romney lacks the charisma to get voters off the couch in November.
Is Romney beginning to fade? That's what the current polling suggests.

Nate's a natural... though he is so judgmental! You know, how he takes a look at the facts and draws some tentative conclusions that are constantly adjusted by emergent facts. Just like those crazy right-wingers!

That was an interesting piece of self-deception on fireandreamitchel.com, Ozy. Completely missing is the dismal values that Romney engenders in those same States: Negative Ratings For Obama, Romney Are High, But Little Moved By Attack Ads Views of Obama, Romney More Strongly Negative Than Positive

Obama at least engenders a positive net.

That is the thing about polls, they can be twisted more ways that a bad plot. Clearly, fireanddream was looking for a pony in a pile of dressage horse crap.

The awful Truth is that Real America has been played for fools by an insidious Progressive infiltration of God's Own Party, a faction who would prefer that the president be allowed to continue to perpetrate an Alien, Socialist agenda on the American People rather than see a True Conservative win the Presidency. The Governor means well, but he just isn't an instinctive, True Conservative. One cannot hope to wrestle power from the usurpers by offering a blander version of the same Collectivist power grab. For Real America to once again emerge from under the yoke of oppression the Republican candidate needs to be a Real American. Look what is happening in Texas and Wisconsin and Florida and Maine, Virginia and South Carolina and so many other places across this country that are electing people who understand that their job as lawmakers is to dismantle the government so that Individuals and Markets are Truly Free and everyone can reach their True Potential.