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#289684 - 07/07/16 09:39 AM Re: Campaign 2016 [Re: pdx rick]
Ezekiel Offline
old hand

Registered: 08/06/05
Posts: 6387
Loc: New York
Originally Posted By: pdx rick
Originally Posted By: Greger
Blast off, Rocketman.



I could do without the threads. wink But the song is cool.
_________________________
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce

"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky




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#289688 - 07/07/16 12:16 PM Re: Campaign 2016 [Re: pdx rick]
NW Ponderer Online   sad
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Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 16560
The Polls Are All Wrong. A Startup Called Civis Is Our Best Hope to Fix Them - Wired.

I don't know whether to be inspired or very scared.
_________________________
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich

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#289692 - 07/07/16 02:21 PM Re: Campaign 2016 [Re: Scoutgal]
Ezekiel Offline
old hand

Registered: 08/06/05
Posts: 6387
Loc: New York
Nothing new. Correct application of random and stratified sampling as well as competent machine learning. I started working with that in the early 90s. And, as is the case with all probabilistic modeling, it is very often wrong when the assumptions are wrong. The only thing new is that with today's hardware, Monte Carlo simulation is much faster and the random number generators are more efficient. So, it is possible to get results faster and more accurately than in the past.
And of course big data - storage, collection and analysis is faster and easier.


Edited by Ezekiel (07/07/16 02:26 PM)
_________________________
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce

"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky




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#289696 - 07/07/16 05:37 PM Re: Campaign 2016 [Re: Ezekiel]
pdx rick Offline
Member
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 41128
Loc: Puget Sound, WA
Originally Posted By: Ezekiel
Originally Posted By: pdx rick
Originally Posted By: Greger
Blast off, Rocketman.



I could do without the threads. wink But the song is cool.

Notice that the lyrics overemphasize "...and I'm gonna be high...and I'm gonna be high...and I'm gonna be higher than a kite by then."

It's the special Dance Club version of the track. X-cellent smile
_________________________
Contrarian, extraordinaire



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#289697 - 07/07/16 05:47 PM Re: Campaign 2016 [Re: pdx rick]
Ezekiel Offline
old hand

Registered: 08/06/05
Posts: 6387
Loc: New York
I saw him perform this piece in person at the Nassau Colliseum back when dinosaurs roamed the earth grin
_________________________
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce

"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky




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#289701 - 07/07/16 08:36 PM Re: Campaign 2016 [Re: NW Ponderer]
rporter314 Offline
old hand

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 6645
Loc: Highlands, Tx
Originally Posted By: NWP
I don't know whether to be inspired or very scared

i have always thought those kind of responses are strange. I see it as simply another evolutionary step in data analysis.

Now if one of those guys used a crystal ball ...
_________________________
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty

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#289708 - 07/08/16 01:21 AM Re: Campaign 2016 [Re: Scoutgal]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 8243
Loc: North San Diego County
I do think the article made one very important point: If your poll depends on random landline calls, it is worthless now. Unless you want to know how elderly white ladies are going to vote.

A lot of younger voters don't even have landlines, and those that do rarely answer them.

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#289813 - 07/12/16 12:40 AM Re: Campaign 2016 [Re: pondering_it_all]
logtroll Offline
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Registered: 04/26/10
Posts: 8942
Loc: New Mexico (not old Mexico)
_________________________
"You can't fix a problem until you understand what the problem is." Logtroll

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#289817 - 07/12/16 04:21 AM Re: Campaign 2016 [Re: logtroll]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 8243
Loc: North San Diego County
Quote:
Hillary insight


And that is why I think she will make a particularly effective President: She is not motivated by status competition: She doesn't need "to win". She wants to form relationships and find common ground in order to move forward.

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#289818 - 07/12/16 09:30 AM Re: Campaign 2016 [Re: logtroll]
Ezekiel Offline
old hand

Registered: 08/06/05
Posts: 6387
Loc: New York
Originally Posted By: logtroll


It's sounds like the guy/gal who gets married and then realizes he/she ain't what they thought. So you start to justify your mistake. Rationalizing away the obvious.
Hillary has a record. It hasn't been the best of records, but like all politicians (human beings) it has high points and low points.
And I don't give a shyte what she's like personally. She could be the nicest person or a mean ahole. Makes no nevermind. The only thing that matters is what she will do once she's in office.
And that remains to be seen.
Klein is not exactly an impartial observer. So I take his opinion with a grain of salt.
_________________________
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce

"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky




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