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#295495 - 11/07/16 12:21 PM EV predictions
Schlack Offline
veteran

Registered: 07/22/04
Posts: 9718
Loc: Ireland
Using the 270 to win template, post your predictions here




I have based my prediction on Clinton's polling strength in the NE Firewall (barring some outlier polls) and also the early voting reports in NV, NC and FL. The Latino vote to drag her over the line in AZ.

Ohio may go to Trump and I was tempted to add Georgia to the Clinton column.

Also watch Texas, I've given it to Trump based on polling but the female/Latino vote might give a very outside chance to Clinton (highly improbable).



Edited by Schlack (11/07/16 12:22 PM)
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#295497 - 11/07/16 01:15 PM Re: EV predictions [Re: Schlack]
NW Ponderer Offline
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Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 16814
I gave Ohio and Arizona to Trump but Clinton all of Maine. I have her between 323 and 324 EV (Nebraska's split vote). I thought the thing to watch, though, was the transit strike ongoing in Philly that could disrupt inner city voting and depress Clinton's vote there. (Philly is a big, big need for her.) But, the strike ended this morning! The end of the email saga really put the wind in her sails. The LA Times has your same prediction, by the way, adding Arizona and Ohio to her column.

I also have the Senate going 49-49, but with the two Independents caucusing with the Dems, that gives them 51%. It's too close. I was hoping for 54 seats. Comey fixed that.
_________________________
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich

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#295498 - 11/07/16 01:51 PM Re: EV predictions [Re: NW Ponderer]
Schlack Offline
veteran

Registered: 07/22/04
Posts: 9718
Loc: Ireland
oops, should have had a closer look at Ohio! Still I'm counting on women to bring this home for Clinton.

edit:

one further piece of info for digestion is the large number of undecideds. In the GOP primaries, until Trump had the nomination tied up, the undecided never broke for him, always his opponents.



Edited by Schlack (11/07/16 02:12 PM)
_________________________
"The basic tool for the manipulation of reality is the manipulation of words. If you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use the words."
(Philip K.Dick)


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#295501 - 11/07/16 02:51 PM Re: EV predictions [Re: Schlack]
rporter314 Offline
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Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 6741
Loc: Highlands, Tx
wow ... it appears many folks have a "blowout" going to Sec Clinton (and it is not just you guys)

I still see a white knuckle, nail biter
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ignorance is the enemy
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#295504 - 11/07/16 03:11 PM Re: EV predictions [Re: Schlack]
pdx rick Offline
Member
Ink Stained

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 41348
Loc: Puget Sound, WA


My predictions:

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#295506 - 11/07/16 03:24 PM Re: EV predictions [Re: rporter314]
Schlack Offline
veteran

Registered: 07/22/04
Posts: 9718
Loc: Ireland
Originally Posted By: rporter314
wow ... it appears many folks have a "blowout" going to Sec Clinton (and it is not just you guys)

I still see a white knuckle, nail biter


She has a solid 2-3% lead in most aggregators. A polling miss one way would give a narrow Trump victory, a polling miss the other way would give Clinton a blowout (had to be careful with my workding there considering the history).
_________________________
"The basic tool for the manipulation of reality is the manipulation of words. If you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use the words."
(Philip K.Dick)


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#295512 - 11/07/16 05:55 PM Re: EV predictions [Re: Schlack]
Jeffery J. Haas Online   happy

It's the Despair Quotient!
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 14001
Loc: Whittier, California
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#295515 - 11/07/16 06:16 PM Re: EV predictions [Re: Schlack]
Ezekiel Offline
old hand

Registered: 08/06/05
Posts: 6387
Loc: New York
My one cent...

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"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce

"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky




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#295578 - 11/08/16 05:54 PM Re: EV predictions [Re: Schlack]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 16814
If yours was a penny, Zeke, mine is a ha'penny.
_________________________
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich

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#295648 - 11/09/16 05:03 AM Re: EV predictions [Re: Schlack]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 16814
God was I wrong.
_________________________
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich

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