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#299477 - 03/12/17 03:35 AM Will gerrymandering ruling turn Texas blue?
pdx rick Offline
Member
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 40075
Loc: Puget Sound, WA


In a 2-1 ruling, a panel of federal judges invalidated three Texas districts late Friday, saying the GOP-controlled state legislature had unconstitutionally drawn boundaries to discriminate against minorities.

via The Chrisitan Science Monitor
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#299483 - 03/12/17 05:14 AM Re: Will gerrymandering ruling turn Texas blue? [Re: pdx rick]
Greger Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 13700
Loc: Florida
They re-drew a few districts here under the same sort of ruling last year. It didn't turn Florida blue.
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#299484 - 03/12/17 05:21 AM Re: Will gerrymandering ruling turn Texas blue? [Re: pdx rick]
NW Ponderer Offline
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Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 15118
What really needs to happen is for the Court to finally say District lines cannot be drawn for purely partisan advantage. The problem is, that's what they owe their appointments to. Since Shelby County v. Holder, which struck down section 4 of the Voting Rights Act, the Republican party has gone whole hog in pushing those principles to the max. Only when the correlation between party affiliation and race is overwhelming will a court even consider the question, and given the partisan nature of the current Supreme Court, it's obvious where they will take it when they get the opportunity.
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#299500 - 03/12/17 05:46 PM Re: Will gerrymandering ruling turn Texas blue? [Re: pdx rick]
rporter314 Offline
old hand

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 5966
Loc: Highlands, Tx
Recently there was a guy on one of the talk shows who said gerrymandering really did not skew elections. I didn't pay close attention (doing something else at time) but I suspect what he argued was rural vs urban demographics. As the general election map showed more rural areas voted one way and urban centers voted a different way. The point being, conservative states do not have to work too hard to maintain a conservative presence.

The bottom line is a closer look at the gerrymandering question is needed to see if there is a real difference rather than a perceived difference.
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#299502 - 03/12/17 07:13 PM Re: Will gerrymandering ruling turn Texas blue? [Re: rporter314]
pondering_it_all Offline
old hand

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 6528
Loc: North San Diego County
It doesn't affect Presidential or Senate elections at all, since votes are counted for each entire state. It does very much affect Representatives in the House. A state could have 10 representatives and 55% minority population. You could fiddle the district boundaries to put 100% of that race in a single district and 49% in every other district so they get one representative instead of the 10 you would expect. Huge difference!

Saying it doesn't skew elections is just ignoring the facts.

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#299517 - 03/12/17 10:09 PM Re: Will gerrymandering ruling turn Texas blue? [Re: pdx rick]
rporter314 Offline
old hand

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 5966
Loc: Highlands, Tx

Evaluating partisan gains from Congressi... the U.S. House
Quote:
The analysis reveals that while Republican and Democratic gerrymandering affects the partisan outcomes of Congressional elections in some states, the net effect across the states is modest, creating no more than one new Republican seat in Congress. Therefore, the partisan composition of Congress can mostly be explained by non-partisan districting, suggesting that much of the electoral bias in Congressional elections is caused by factors other than partisan intent in the districting process


I have been seduced by "common sense" arguments regarding gerrymandering (as well as other topics and issues) but perhaps a factual analysis reveals something entirely different. This is but one instance of a contrary argument.
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#299521 - 03/13/17 05:51 AM Re: Will gerrymandering ruling turn Texas blue? [Re: pdx rick]
pondering_it_all Offline
old hand

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 6528
Loc: North San Diego County
Well, somebody certainly spends an inordinate amount of time and money redrawing district lines then, for nothing. You would think with more Democrats then Republicans in the US, The House would reflect that.

Maybe Democrats simply fail to vote to a greater extent.

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#299522 - 03/13/17 11:56 AM Re: Will gerrymandering ruling turn Texas blue? [Re: pdx rick]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 15118
I would put big money on the notion that a non-partisan redistricting process would yield a substantially different party makeup in Congress. On the one hand, I agree with the analysis that most of the result is geographic. In some areas, the political makeup will never put a member of the other party in office. On the other, the modeling of the analysis is way off, using party affiliation rather than voting pattern as the baseline.

Of greater concern to me are the active vote-suppression efforts.
_________________________
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich

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#299524 - 03/13/17 01:26 PM Re: Will gerrymandering ruling turn Texas blue? [Re: pdx rick]
rporter314 Offline
old hand

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 5966
Loc: Highlands, Tx
I don't have an answer to any question regarding gerrymandering (it was historically implemented for precisely the purpose of achieving a desired result) as the evidence is no longer as clear. Perhaps that study's assumptions skewed the results .... I just dont know. It is something worth thinking about.

On the other hand voter suppression is clear cut as the perpetrators have stated that is their goal. I suspect even more Republican/conservative states will pass legislation to disenfranchise certain classes of voters i.e. those who would tend to vote for the opposition.
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