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#305434 - 02/01/18 04:49 AM Re: Dems poised to gain seats after court throws out Pa. congressional map [Re: pdx rick]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 7565
Loc: North San Diego County
This is really the State Senate Republicans refusing to draw a new map, but it could be quite painful if the leader doesn't like sitting in a jail cell. That's what usually happens when you refuse to submit to a State Supreme Court order.

No matter: The court gave them some time to draw a new map and if they refuse or produce one that has a similar goofy shape, then the court said right in the order that they will appoint a Special Master to draw the map. He's already been selected and is working on it. So Republicans are just going to screw themselves even more by non-participation.

It is very complex to draw a gerrymander map. It takes about one day to draw a fair one. All you need is the population data for the state and a program that divides the state into equal-population districts.

Actually though, even if the population is about equally divided between Democrats and Republicans, I would not be surprised if there was a Democratic sweep even if they don't fix the map. When you gerrymander, you try to put just enough Republicans in as many districts as possible. There are no "safe" seats because you doled out Republican voters into other nearby districts. With a 10 point lead, Democrats could conceivable win EVERY district!

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#305442 - 02/01/18 06:29 PM Re: Dems poised to gain seats after court throws out Pa. congressional map [Re: pdx rick]
Ujest Shurly Offline
newbie

Registered: 10/16/16
Posts: 292
Loc: Michigan, USA
Unless there is a constitutional issue, SCOTUS almost never intervenes in matters the constitution puts squarely in the states control. Drawing voter district maps is squarely in the authority of the state. So the refusal of the State Senate Leader is between the him and the State Supreme Court.

At least that is my vote...

Lets have another Tea Party! Take politicians out of re-redistricting!
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#305446 - 02/02/18 06:04 AM Re: Dems poised to gain seats after court throws out Pa. congressional map [Re: Ujest Shurly]
pdx rick Offline
Member
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Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 40878
Loc: Puget Sound, WA
Originally Posted By: Ujest Shurly
Lets have another Tea Party! Take politicians out of re-redistricting!

California did that eight years ago. Why do you think the state is so prosperous today - besides the fact that Republicans not being able to ruin it for everybody who lives there? Hmm
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#305449 - 02/02/18 02:18 PM Re: Dems poised to gain seats after court throws out Pa. congressional map [Re: pdx rick]
Ujest Shurly Offline
newbie

Registered: 10/16/16
Posts: 292
Loc: Michigan, USA
I knew that California did this as had several other states. Last election, 2016, I and the wife signed a petition for Michigan to do the same thing.

State-by-State redistricting process.
_________________________
Vote 2018

Life is like a PB&J sandwich
The older you get, the moldery and crustier you get.

Now, get off my grass!

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#305504 - 02/05/18 07:18 PM Re: Dems poised to gain seats after court throws out Pa. congressional map [Re: pdx rick]
pdx rick Offline
Member
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Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 40878
Loc: Puget Sound, WA


SCOTUS denies request to get involved. smile
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#305505 - 02/05/18 07:56 PM Re: Dems poised to gain seats after court throws out Pa. congressional map [Re: pdx rick]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 13120
Loc: Whittier, California
BLAMMO!!!
Rick and PIA called it!
PA Repubs are TOAST, the decision stands.

Look, we got beat when the SCOTUS ruled on Citizens United, bludgeoned when they gutted the Voting Rights Act, and we're stuck with the Electoral College, at least for now and for the foreseeable future.
But there is no universe where democracy survives where one party gets to have the EC + CU + gerrymandering + gutting the Voting Rights Act.

Personally I think they should be forced to pick ONE and ONLY one.
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#305507 - 02/06/18 12:22 AM Re: Dems poised to gain seats after court throws out Pa. congressional map [Re: pdx rick]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 7565
Loc: North San Diego County
I will be very interested to see the new House delegation, come November. If current trends continue, I predict not 50% Democratic but more like 80%.

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#305514 - 02/06/18 07:54 PM Re: Dems poised to gain seats after court throws out Pa. congressional map [Re: pdx rick]
jgw Offline
member

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 1937
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
It was reported this morning that they have 2 weeks to get the job done. Nobody thinks that they can do that in that amount of time.

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#305517 - 02/07/18 12:05 AM Re: Dems poised to gain seats after court throws out Pa. congressional map [Re: pdx rick]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 7565
Loc: North San Diego County
I'm sure these maps already exist. They had to start with a simple model and then refine it to gain advantage. But if not, no problem. I'm sure the Special Master and the SC are ready to do it. In fact, I bet THEY already have maps drawn because they had to have something to compare the current gerrymandered maps to in making the decision it was unconstitutional.

It's actually a very well known computer science problem. You start with a square grid of the required number of squares. Then you let it adjust the grid boundaries to try to get equal populations in each "square". All boundaries have to be fairly straight. Let it run for a few hours and it will draw a near-perfect map. You don't even need to know how many Democrats and Republicans are in each location. It will draw some predominantly Republican districts and some predominantly Democratic districts, just because geography is like that. MUCH, MUCH easier than trying to gerrymander.

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#305519 - 02/07/18 01:20 AM Re: Dems poised to gain seats after court throws out Pa. congressional map [Re: pondering_it_all]
Spag-hetti Offline
member

Registered: 09/10/08
Posts: 1659
Loc: Middle, USA
Quote:
PIA said:
MUCH, MUCH easier than trying to gerrymander.


Yeah, but nobody said the cheaters were lazy.
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