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#307034 - 06/20/18 09:36 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
Greger Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 14365
Loc: Florida
Quote:
Trade War with the entire rest of the world!

I was wondering what path President Trump would follow in his bid to wreck the World Economy. Self destructive trade wars seems like a perfect way to do it. Destroying the strong(if unequal) economy that Obama built isn't gonna be easy. But I have faith, Trump can do it!
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken." Oscar Wilde

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#307056 - 06/22/18 08:10 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2153
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
Here are the job figures that the jackass want stopped.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccart...c/#53b99650538e

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nearly-5-million-us-jobs-depend-on-mexico-2017-01-27

Add in the efforts at shutting down medicare and medicaid, and let everybody know what's happening and the Dems might even have a chance?

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#307078 - 06/23/18 11:28 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
matthew Offline
newbie

Registered: 03/24/16
Posts: 353
'
Adolf Hitler also wanted economic autarchy for his country.
.
_________________________
Once, weapons were manufactured to fight wars; today, wars are manufactured to sell weapons

It is far easier to deceive folks than to convince them they are deceived

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#307081 - 06/24/18 03:30 AM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline


Pooh-Bah

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 13338
Loc: Whittier, California
Originally Posted By: jgw
apparently we are, right now, in a Trade War with the entire rest of the world! The latest I saw was that Trump is now threatening China with 200 billion more in tariffs. Eventually China will have enough and setting the problem. It would be very easy for them.


I have news for you...
China's five thousand year old civilization brings with it some rather daunting characteristics, particularly as they switched in the last century from a dynastic model to a command communist system.
They might be "practicing" a highly modified form of state capitalism as a means of thriving on an economic level but make no mistake about it, China is more than willing to go to any length to create a sudden and direct reaction to anything it perceives as a threat to its governance model.

Given what we observed in the Mao era, we would do well to remember what they are capable of if they feel the need, even if it involves great sacrifice on the part of its citizens.
I daresay that if China's ruling faction decides that it has had quite enough of a bellicose USA, they're probably more than willing, ready and able to deliver a near fatal blow to our economy via any of a handful of severe scenarios.

China's private wealthy elite enjoy what they have at the pleasure of the Chinese government but it's barely even a nanosecond in their history, so small as to be not even a blip on their timeline. Imagine what would happen to our economy if Xi decided to put China back on a "1949" diet of "black pajamas, a bowl of rice and one bicycle per household."

Does anyone honestly think Xi and his ruling faction would care if up to two hundred million died?
I don't think so...not with almost one and a half billion population.
All China has to do is commit to a "five year plan" (Communists LOVE 5-year plans, remember?) of severe austerity where manufacturing is curtailed to the point where they can cut out the American economy entirely and still survive.

All they have to do is impose strict limits on what every individual is allowed to have, earn and keep for five years.
We're not talking about cutting out the economic junk food, we're talking an ANOREXIA diet.

Not only HAVE they done similar things in the past, they can do it now, and I seriously doubt they would hesitate if it means teaching the Americans a lesson, and firmly establishing China as the dominant power.
And I firmly believe that they could accomplish such "strategic emergency austerity measures" in what would appear to be the blink of an eye.
Think about what that would do to the US economy.

Oh and, by the way, at the same time they would also call in ALL of their markers, all of their notes, and demand payment, on the threat of even more "austerity" measures and even more "internal security" moves.
I do not for one second think China would have any difficulty in turning out the lights on the United States if they decided it was necessary. For them, it would be a matter of "starving the beast into submission".

We better think long and hard about what will happen if China decides to "Party like it's 1949".
_________________________
"The Left ones think I'm Right, the Right ones think I'm wrong."
Leon Russell - Magic Mirror"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-H1iQ5Y6Eg

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#307088 - 06/24/18 05:21 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2153
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
I believe that most governments need either the army, or the will of the people governed, to actually govern. If they don't have one, or the other, then the government collapses. I have been to China a number of times and most of the people of that nation support their government. They are not a stupid people and can remember the bad old days. When their pollution gets really bad the government reacts to fix the problem, for instance.

It is true, however, threaten them and they will react. If the jackass continues then, eventually, they will start selling off our debt. If they do that we will be in serious trouble. I remember when we went after Japan and they were quite clear about it. Keep it up and they would sell off the debt - we stopped going after them. My fear is that the jackass will just keep it going. As far as I can tell there is very few things (can't even think of any) that he has done which Russia doesn't like. They continue to praise the jackass as a great man and he keeps doing things that denigrate the nation.

Strage times.............

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#307089 - 06/24/18 07:57 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 7997
Loc: North San Diego County
China does not own callable debt. They own regular treasury bills that they can only hold or sell. They could sell them all, and other people, companies, and governments would buy them. If they tried to sell everything at once, they would get a lot less than they are worth now. That would depress the price, but we don't have to sell T-bills until the price comes back up.

They would lose a lot more than we would. In the long term, it would transfer a lot of China's wealth to other countries.

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#307090 - 06/24/18 11:13 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline


Pooh-Bah

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 13338
Loc: Whittier, California
Sorry but I don't think China's governing elite would not hesitate to do a lot more than sell off our debt. If they feel threatened, I don't think they'd hesitate to pull the entire Band-Aid off quickly and cauterize the wound.

Don't forget what's potentially at stake:
If they decide that we're too much a liability and too much a threat, and if they decide that a temporary sacrifice will ultimately leave them in the top position, both in terms of trade and overall power, they'll take the gamble.
_________________________
"The Left ones think I'm Right, the Right ones think I'm wrong."
Leon Russell - Magic Mirror"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-H1iQ5Y6Eg

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#307095 - 06/25/18 06:35 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2153
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
What happens when a major bond owner starts to sell is that others jump on that bandwagon as they fear the price slippage. This is standard behavior. It happens in the stock market too. When the price of our bonds fall, however, other things start to happen as well. One of those things is a decrease in price and an increase interest to encourage them that buy. This also effects the American dollar. All in all it can get a bit messy.

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#307311 - 07/08/18 05:19 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2153
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
I thought I had posted this but can't find it. This has to do with the current trade war. China, in retaliation to us put a large tariff on our Soy exports. Before they did they also setup to buy soy from Russia who is absolutely delighted with the deal as they get money they don't have. So, the United States has now lost the soy trade to Russia and its unlikely we will ever get it back. This is also true of other items currently being imported. by China. They are simply replacing agricultural imports from America to other suppliers. So, basically, no matter what the end result of it all is, we will have already lost markets which are unlikely to come back as we do not keep our word and are unreliable. I fully expect this will be true with the rest of the world as well. They will find new places to get what they need and its unlikely we will ever get that trade back.

I also find it interesting that this is yet another example of where Russia wins and we lose. Seems the jackass is going all out to make sure Russia wins? Does ANYBODY know of a single deal the jackass has made wherein we have gained anything?

I wonder if the farmers, who are now losing markets unlikely to return, and feeling about this, or even if they realize what is actually happening. The jackass is, apparently, telling them everything is going to be dandy - this is seriously wrong! The reason for the question, however, is that apparently most of the farmers voted for the jackass and now get to reap their just rewards. The reason for my question is that they didn't think it through when they voted and, I suspect, are not thinking it through now.


Edited by jgw (07/08/18 06:11 PM)

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#307313 - 07/08/18 07:56 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 7997
Loc: North San Diego County
They might think about that at the auction of their farm equipment.

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