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#306882 - 06/01/18 05:30 PM TrumpTrade
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2153
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
the jackass has a trade war starting with China and our agriculture economy is starting to tank. I understand thathe is also going after Korea. He has also gone after Europe as well. Now, however, he has also decided to go after Canada and Mexico over Steel and Aluminum. So, pretty much, we seem to be at the beginning of a trade war with the entire rest of the world!

That being said its also interesting that Canada accounts for 50% of our entire steel exports (from a steel industry, incidentally, which the jackass tells us is dead or dying). Mexico and Canada represent 83% of our steel exports. So, basically, we have now lost 83% of our steel exports to save American steel jobs which are now even more at risk because of the new tariffs.

Here is a site that explains this: https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/2017/q3/exports-us.pdf

This means, of course, that we are well on our way to actually being in a trade war with the entire rest of the world! History is not kind to what happens when a trade war happens.

On top of that the jackass has turned the banking industry loose yet again. History tells us that when the banking industry is turned loose it takes about a year for the entire economy to tank. So, they are now saying, 2019 will be yet another year where we all get to experience yet another Republican economic downturn, whilst being screwed over by the 1%.

All this also means that the left will, yet again, have the 'opportunity' to fix the economy, as well as dealing with the huge debts run up by that self proclaimed king of debt - The Jackass. This time, hopefully, the left will give up their 'civilized' behavior in favor of reminding everybody, consistently and constantly, that the problem came, yet again, from the Republicans instead of doing their normal dance of saying nothing mean about the competition.

Its also interesting that the American steel industry is starting to rebuild. However, that being said, the mills being built are hugely automated and will not be hiring a while lot of workers (not unlike most other industries these days).

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#306885 - 06/01/18 07:01 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 7997
Loc: North San Diego County
The basic problem with every one of Trump's policies is they are a third grader's idea of how the world works. America needs more shiny tanks and planes, so we need to promote steel and aluminum producing. It ignores the facts that producing steel and aluminum are cheaper somewhere else and that far more jobs are impacted by making the raw materials more expensive. We are way beyond raw material production. We still have companies that make products out of steel and aluminum, but you make them more expensive and they might as well move off-shore! Are we Communists now with a government-planned economy?

The game is 3 dimensional chess and we have a checker player making policy decisions.

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#306888 - 06/02/18 04:03 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
pdx rick Offline
Member
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 41049
Loc: Puget Sound, WA

The Wall Street Journal says Fatasss is lame at deal-making:

Quote:
So much for Donald Trump as genius deal-maker.


The Wall Street Journal

smile
_________________________
Contrarian, extraordinaire



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#306889 - 06/02/18 05:16 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 7997
Loc: North San Diego County
I guess leading economists feel the same way as I do:

Renowned Economist Jeffrey Sachs Rips Trump As A Gibbering, ‘Delusional’ Threat

Quote:
Trump’s “so-called policies are not really policies,” he added. “Trade wars are on, off, on hold, on again, within the span of days. ... Foreign companies are sanctioned today and rescued the next. ... Global agreements and rules are ripped to shreds. Trump’s garbled syntax and disorganized thoughts are impossible to follow.”

Sachs has bashed Trump’s economic actions several times. Earlier this year, he said the president’s tariffs prove he “flunked economics” and makes “primitive errors because he hasn’t a clue as to how the world economy works.”

Regarding the steel tariffs, Sachs wrote for CNN, “whatever US steel producers might gain from a trade war would be offset by the losses to steel users and consumers, plus the social costs of protecting uncompetitive jobs.”

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#306900 - 06/04/18 10:45 AM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
Kaine Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 08/25/04
Posts: 2154
Loc: Pennsylvania
I don't understand how Trump can do this just by his own hand. Why doesn't congress or senate have to approve such measures?

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#306902 - 06/04/18 02:18 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: pondering_it_all]
Greger Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 14365
Loc: Florida
Quote:
The basic problem with every one of Trump's policies is they are a third grader's idea of how the world works.

Let's be clear on this...they are an average Republican's idea of how the world works.
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."— Oscar Wilde

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#306903 - 06/04/18 07:50 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: Greger]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 7997
Loc: North San Diego County
Quote:
they are an average Republican's idea of how the world works.


Republican voters yes, but Republican Congressmen used to be smarter and didn't actually believe all of their own propaganda.

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#306919 - 06/05/18 07:31 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2153
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
"by his own hand" is interesting. When Obama came into office the Republicans swore to never let him pass another bill and, pretty much, lived up to it. 'This is why, for instance, its been so easy to revoke much of what Obama did as he too did most of it "by his own hand". When you add in a congress which has given much of their power to the presidency because (little stuff like declaring war and treaties), well, just because (and they are, the whole damned bunch of 'em) lazy, self serving, ignorant, and a known waste of time by the majority of the electorate. According to real clear politics the congress disapproval rating is between 70 and 80 percent of the electorate.

I should add that its easy to carp on congress but the real villain is the electorate, the majority of which rarely even bothers to vote.

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#307031 - 06/20/18 05:55 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2153
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
apparently we are, right now, in a Trade War with the entire rest of the world! The latest I saw was that Trump is now threatening China with 200 billion more in tariffs. Eventually China will have enough and setting the problem. It would be very easy for them. All they have to do is start selling off some of our bonds and the rest will follow - basically, a serious dump of our economy and the value of our dollar, all at once. This would mean the market collapsing and those who sold high would have a bunch of cash which would also drop in value. If you see the price of gold starting to up you can bet that there are them that believe the worst and gold is the only solution.

Think about that one the next time you hear the Jackass working his mouth.

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#307033 - 06/20/18 09:26 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: pondering_it_all]
Greger Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 14365
Loc: Florida
Quote:
Republican Congressmen used to be smarter and didn't actually believe all of their own propaganda

Republican propaganda drew the true believers into becoming candidates themselves. They became elected officials and eventually formed the "Freedom Caucus".
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."— Oscar Wilde

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#307034 - 06/20/18 09:36 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
Greger Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 14365
Loc: Florida
Quote:
Trade War with the entire rest of the world!

I was wondering what path President Trump would follow in his bid to wreck the World Economy. Self destructive trade wars seems like a perfect way to do it. Destroying the strong(if unequal) economy that Obama built isn't gonna be easy. But I have faith, Trump can do it!
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."— Oscar Wilde

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#307056 - 06/22/18 08:10 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2153
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
Here are the job figures that the jackass want stopped.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccart...c/#53b99650538e

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nearly-5-million-us-jobs-depend-on-mexico-2017-01-27

Add in the efforts at shutting down medicare and medicaid, and let everybody know what's happening and the Dems might even have a chance?

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#307078 - 06/23/18 11:28 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
matthew Offline
newbie

Registered: 03/24/16
Posts: 353
'
Adolf Hitler also wanted economic autarchy for his country.
.
_________________________
Once, weapons were manufactured to fight wars; today, wars are manufactured to sell weapons

It is far easier to deceive folks than to convince them they are deceived

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#307081 - 06/24/18 03:30 AM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline


Pooh-Bah

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 13338
Loc: Whittier, California
Originally Posted By: jgw
apparently we are, right now, in a Trade War with the entire rest of the world! The latest I saw was that Trump is now threatening China with 200 billion more in tariffs. Eventually China will have enough and setting the problem. It would be very easy for them.


I have news for you...
China's five thousand year old civilization brings with it some rather daunting characteristics, particularly as they switched in the last century from a dynastic model to a command communist system.
They might be "practicing" a highly modified form of state capitalism as a means of thriving on an economic level but make no mistake about it, China is more than willing to go to any length to create a sudden and direct reaction to anything it perceives as a threat to its governance model.

Given what we observed in the Mao era, we would do well to remember what they are capable of if they feel the need, even if it involves great sacrifice on the part of its citizens.
I daresay that if China's ruling faction decides that it has had quite enough of a bellicose USA, they're probably more than willing, ready and able to deliver a near fatal blow to our economy via any of a handful of severe scenarios.

China's private wealthy elite enjoy what they have at the pleasure of the Chinese government but it's barely even a nanosecond in their history, so small as to be not even a blip on their timeline. Imagine what would happen to our economy if Xi decided to put China back on a "1949" diet of "black pajamas, a bowl of rice and one bicycle per household."

Does anyone honestly think Xi and his ruling faction would care if up to two hundred million died?
I don't think so...not with almost one and a half billion population.
All China has to do is commit to a "five year plan" (Communists LOVE 5-year plans, remember?) of severe austerity where manufacturing is curtailed to the point where they can cut out the American economy entirely and still survive.

All they have to do is impose strict limits on what every individual is allowed to have, earn and keep for five years.
We're not talking about cutting out the economic junk food, we're talking an ANOREXIA diet.

Not only HAVE they done similar things in the past, they can do it now, and I seriously doubt they would hesitate if it means teaching the Americans a lesson, and firmly establishing China as the dominant power.
And I firmly believe that they could accomplish such "strategic emergency austerity measures" in what would appear to be the blink of an eye.
Think about what that would do to the US economy.

Oh and, by the way, at the same time they would also call in ALL of their markers, all of their notes, and demand payment, on the threat of even more "austerity" measures and even more "internal security" moves.
I do not for one second think China would have any difficulty in turning out the lights on the United States if they decided it was necessary. For them, it would be a matter of "starving the beast into submission".

We better think long and hard about what will happen if China decides to "Party like it's 1949".
_________________________
"The Left ones think I'm Right, the Right ones think I'm wrong."
Leon Russell - Magic Mirror"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-H1iQ5Y6Eg

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#307088 - 06/24/18 05:21 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2153
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
I believe that most governments need either the army, or the will of the people governed, to actually govern. If they don't have one, or the other, then the government collapses. I have been to China a number of times and most of the people of that nation support their government. They are not a stupid people and can remember the bad old days. When their pollution gets really bad the government reacts to fix the problem, for instance.

It is true, however, threaten them and they will react. If the jackass continues then, eventually, they will start selling off our debt. If they do that we will be in serious trouble. I remember when we went after Japan and they were quite clear about it. Keep it up and they would sell off the debt - we stopped going after them. My fear is that the jackass will just keep it going. As far as I can tell there is very few things (can't even think of any) that he has done which Russia doesn't like. They continue to praise the jackass as a great man and he keeps doing things that denigrate the nation.

Strage times.............

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#307089 - 06/24/18 07:57 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 7997
Loc: North San Diego County
China does not own callable debt. They own regular treasury bills that they can only hold or sell. They could sell them all, and other people, companies, and governments would buy them. If they tried to sell everything at once, they would get a lot less than they are worth now. That would depress the price, but we don't have to sell T-bills until the price comes back up.

They would lose a lot more than we would. In the long term, it would transfer a lot of China's wealth to other countries.

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#307090 - 06/24/18 11:13 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline


Pooh-Bah

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 13338
Loc: Whittier, California
Sorry but I don't think China's governing elite would not hesitate to do a lot more than sell off our debt. If they feel threatened, I don't think they'd hesitate to pull the entire Band-Aid off quickly and cauterize the wound.

Don't forget what's potentially at stake:
If they decide that we're too much a liability and too much a threat, and if they decide that a temporary sacrifice will ultimately leave them in the top position, both in terms of trade and overall power, they'll take the gamble.
_________________________
"The Left ones think I'm Right, the Right ones think I'm wrong."
Leon Russell - Magic Mirror"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-H1iQ5Y6Eg

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#307095 - 06/25/18 06:35 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2153
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
What happens when a major bond owner starts to sell is that others jump on that bandwagon as they fear the price slippage. This is standard behavior. It happens in the stock market too. When the price of our bonds fall, however, other things start to happen as well. One of those things is a decrease in price and an increase interest to encourage them that buy. This also effects the American dollar. All in all it can get a bit messy.

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#307311 - 07/08/18 05:19 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2153
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
I thought I had posted this but can't find it. This has to do with the current trade war. China, in retaliation to us put a large tariff on our Soy exports. Before they did they also setup to buy soy from Russia who is absolutely delighted with the deal as they get money they don't have. So, the United States has now lost the soy trade to Russia and its unlikely we will ever get it back. This is also true of other items currently being imported. by China. They are simply replacing agricultural imports from America to other suppliers. So, basically, no matter what the end result of it all is, we will have already lost markets which are unlikely to come back as we do not keep our word and are unreliable. I fully expect this will be true with the rest of the world as well. They will find new places to get what they need and its unlikely we will ever get that trade back.

I also find it interesting that this is yet another example of where Russia wins and we lose. Seems the jackass is going all out to make sure Russia wins? Does ANYBODY know of a single deal the jackass has made wherein we have gained anything?

I wonder if the farmers, who are now losing markets unlikely to return, and feeling about this, or even if they realize what is actually happening. The jackass is, apparently, telling them everything is going to be dandy - this is seriously wrong! The reason for the question, however, is that apparently most of the farmers voted for the jackass and now get to reap their just rewards. The reason for my question is that they didn't think it through when they voted and, I suspect, are not thinking it through now.


Edited by jgw (07/08/18 06:11 PM)

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#307313 - 07/08/18 07:56 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 7997
Loc: North San Diego County
They might think about that at the auction of their farm equipment.

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#307316 - 07/08/18 09:49 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: pondering_it_all]
Greger Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 14365
Loc: Florida
We should see a drop in the price of pork too...
The Chinese are hitting hard at industries that support Trump. So is Mexico, Canada, and Europe. When his base starts to squeal he'll back off and say it was all a joke. Then they'll all have a laugh and go back to squeezing brown people's balls to get their jollies.
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."— Oscar Wilde

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#307317 - 07/09/18 01:32 AM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
rporter314 Offline
old hand

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 6541
Loc: Highlands, Tx
I am not sure that would be the case. Have you listened to Navarro talk about this? I think he believes the US would win a trade war with everyone. He believes they would blink first. If I were them, I would say GFY Mr Trump and the horse you rode in on.

BTW, I don't think a failing economy as a result of a trade war would erode his support. These are ignorant people who have been touched by the Master and they will not falter. Hopefully it will galvanize and energize everyone else to vote against Mr Trump and anyone he supports.
_________________________
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty

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#307320 - 07/09/18 04:41 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: rporter314]
NW Ponderer Online   content
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 16301
Originally Posted By: rporter314
I am not sure that would be the case. Have you listened to Navarro talk about this? I think he believes the US would win a trade war with everyone.
And we could "survive" a nuclear exchange, too!
_________________________
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich

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#307325 - 07/09/18 07:18 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2153
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
Virtually everything the jackass has done has ended up helping Russia - EVERYTHING! There are a number of folks who believe he is in their pocket and I think I have joined up with that group. Hopefully, somebody will put a stop to it but who knows?

I also don't think he is going to back off of this even a little bit. There have been a number of polls about them getting beat up so far and the consensus is that they are holding fast and believe in the jackass.

I consider the whole thing to be a Republican administration doing its thing to cause an economic downturn. This is what Republicans do! The only reason everybody isn't aware of this is because they don't read their history and nobody on the other side has bothered to tell them. The difference, this time, is that we have the incredibly ignorant jackass in charge. He, obviously, wants it NOW! Unfortunately, for us, he is going to get it.

The EU, Canada, Mexico, etc. have yet to weigh into the trade war but they have announced. In spite of only china having at it, so far, we are already starting the shed jobs. Give it a couple more months and its going to be much worse. I think the jackass is on his way to insult the EU, dis NATO, and kiss the Russian rear. I suspect that will stir stuff up and everybody will jump on the tariff the United States bandwagon. I continue to believe that when its all said and done this Republican downturn will be really bad.

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#307396 - 07/12/18 07:03 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2153
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
The results are starting to come in:
[url=ps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/07/12/upshot/trade-war-cost-families.html][url=ps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/07/12/upshot/trade-war-cost-families.html][url=ps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/07/12/upshot/trade-war-cost-families.html]ps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/07/12/upshot/trade-war-cost-families.html[/url][/url][/url]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk...m=.3db409376a8b

This is just the opening bell. The Jackass has now raised the bid on China, from 20 Billion to 200 billion. This being the case the above reference will, in theory, go up by 10 times in the next month or so. Remember, Canada, the EU, and Mexico have yet to weigh in.

I do notice, however, that people are starting to talk, on TV, about the jackass being in the pocket of the Russians, right out loud. Should also mention that Ryan, in support of the ex college wrasslin coach because of his "integrity and honesty". Mr Ryan is, obviously an expert in these issues?

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#307402 - 07/12/18 10:41 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 7997
Loc: North San Diego County
I would not be too surprised to hear about gay scandals connected to wrestling. I have nothing against gays at all. I'm just saying that wrestling has a certain homo-erotic appeal to it. All those really cut guys, in full contact and skimpy costumes, sweating and grunting. It's not baseball!

Dennis Hastert was a college wrestling coach, too. And we all know how that went.

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#307410 - 07/13/18 04:46 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: pondering_it_all]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2153
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
AND a wrassler before that!

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#307569 - 07/20/18 09:08 PM Re: TrumpTrade [Re: jgw]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2153
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
The trade war continues. Texas is bracing for a 40,000 job loss, California for a loss of 1 out of every 7 jobs and the northern tier states have the same kinds of problems. The auto industry can not longer buy parts for reasonable prices so its already starting to talk about slowdowns. I think BMW has already shut down and Mercedese (largest car factory in the nation) is talking about doing the same as are the American manufacturers. Agriculture has already been hit hard and its unlikely they will regain market share even when trade wars stop. The good news, however, is that cherry prices are down since they have lost their offshore markets.

I could post sites but just google stuff like "tarrif trade war jobs"

I think the standard Republican economic downturn will be a lot quicker than normal and, even when its all over, we will have lost market share that we once owned insofar as the EU, China, Mexico and Canada are concerned. This means that the jobs lost are not likely to come back real quick as they have been replaced with new suppliers due to our tariff stuff.

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