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#307241 - 07/03/18 06:06 PM Pie Chart Fight
chunkstyle Offline
journeyman

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 965
Allright NWP,
I've moved the conversation over to a new thread regarding your thirdway article you linked to in the 'End of the Independant Judiciary'.
Again, what was there in the graphs and pie charts that would have predicted a decidedly left of center populist run as successful as the Sanders challenge?

It goes a long way to explaining centrisms lack of imagination and reliance on data driven analytics and numbers. Helps explain their contempt for the left wing of the party and constantly sidelining progressives in the primaries.

But where has the pie charts gotten them and the once progressive party it now leads?

Finally, the much talked about Clinton machine was looking at numbers from Brooklyn and concluded that they did not need to go to Michigan nor Wisconsin until it was too late. This says more about the technocratic managerial class and the feed back loop data sets they love to look at than the reality on the ground. A reality that was getting screamed at them by state operatives in these very same battle ground states!
An out of touch, professional class pandering, leadership that lost touch with broad swaths of the American public is how I and many others see it.
Cortez's victory showed you can broaden the base on issues having broad support. The third way seems to playing a game of reduction and micro targeting that has lead to this historic wipe out. The party needs to stop trying to drive the car forward by looking in the rear view mirror.

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#307254 - 07/04/18 12:45 PM Re: Pie Chart Fight [Re: chunkstyle]
chunkstyle Offline
journeyman

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 965
Originally Posted By: NW Ponderer
Here's the thing, Chunk. Pie Charts are just graphical representations of the empirical evidence. They are just a way of demonstrating in digestible form the information they are derived from. There's a lot of grousing going on, here. But there is no refuting Pondering's point: "All of those different things combined to give us Trump. Just about any single one of them could have given Clinton a win." Clinton did win the popular vote. It should not have been close, actually. But it was. The difference, really, was discipline. The Republicans voted for their candidate. The Democrats didn't (in the right places). A change of 80,000 votes out of 128,838,342 or .0621% would have changed the result (or about 1/36th of Clinton's popular vote margin).

I'm sorry, but, having been steeped in Political Science since I was a Freshman in college, I tend to think in terms of analysis rather than speculation. The argument that "Bernie would have done better" is meaningless for all kinds of reasons, not the least of which is that it is purely counterfactual. The same polls that are used for that argument also projected Clinton to win by a landslide (she didn't). Statistically speaking, the margin of Trump's victory can be entirely demonstrated to have been the result of Comey's actions. The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election - Fivethirtyeight. There are other reasons, of course, but that is as good as any.

As you noted, of course, this should all have been relegated to a different thread. This thread is supposed to be about the judiciary (or lack thereof).


Thanks for explaining how a pie chart works. I'll just add that they're the same as wood planers. Garbage in garbage out.
I, too, was steeped in politics. Well before my stint at community college. I was around eight or nine and me and my siblings had to help put strike signs together for a picket line. We ate government cheese that year and there was no family vacations.
There's other ways to learn about politics than sitting in a class room.
You still haven't responded to my critique of your article. Is it valid and. If not, why?


Edited by chunkstyle (07/04/18 01:22 PM)

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#307266 - 07/05/18 09:06 PM Re: Pie Chart Fight [Re: chunkstyle]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 16203
Alrighty, chunk, I went back and looked at the original article that (I believe) prompted this thread. (Family Feud). I reached a number of conclusions: first, there are no pie charts in it. That comment had confused me originally, because I didn't remember any. Second, the analysis seems sound to me, and didn't assert anything like you claimed, merely pointing out that "Democratic coalition voters" are less reliable than Republicans and represent broader viewpoints. Finally, I have found no empirical analyses that support your assertions, or that contradict any of mine. Indeed, nothing that refuted any of the points that either Pondering or I made. Maybe I am just missing your argument? Maybe we're talking at cross purposes?

Let me restate my premise: Anyone who voted for anyone other than Clinton (or didn't vote) in the final election is partially responsible for allowing Trump to win. I don't care how "flawed" she was, the contrast was so obvious there is no excuse.

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#307273 - 07/06/18 12:30 AM Re: Pie Chart Fight [Re: chunkstyle]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 7885
Loc: North San Diego County
So if you failed to vote for Clinton, you are going to Hell. devil

Some would say we already are living in Hell now. Hmm

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#307281 - 07/06/18 06:28 AM Re: Pie Chart Fight [Re: chunkstyle]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 16203
I'm happy to address specific pie charts, if you have some. The premise of the original article didn't address any of the assertions you raise, chunk, so I'm at a loss to respond. In the interim, here's a thought experiment: assume that Democrats have a clear majority of votes (like in the last election); also, assume that 60% of Democratic voters support the socialist candidate rather than the "centrist" candidate (Remember, it's a thought experiment). How many "centrist" voters have to vote for the socialist candidate to win the election?

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#307335 - 07/10/18 04:08 AM Re: Pie Chart Fight [Re: chunkstyle]
chunkstyle Offline
journeyman

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 965
I called it a pie chart fight because it sounded funnier than 'bar graph fight'.
To me, your referenced article serves as nothing more than a feed back loop.
If the voters self identify then are the same 'lean democrat' voters viewing politics the same? Does someone that 'leans democrat' have the same attitudes in Texas as a lean democrat does in New York?
Then there is the 'holy grail' emperical evidence of going to the center where the moderates dwell. Again, this is bunk as there is no homogeneity between self identifying moderates thruout the country. Nor is the concept of a moderate consistant thruout out time. Moderation 20 years ago meant slashing the safety net and beefing up incarceration rates.
Fancy colledge types trying to reduce politics to a formula. It's appealing to systems managers and technocrats but it's hardly inspiring to anyone else.
Was turn out low in 2016? Does third way centrism (aka republican light) do anything to boost turn out? Oh heck no. Again, Brooklyn used a strategy based on nonsense analytics as the article you referenced. Based a whole strategy on micro targeting and appealing to alienated republican voters. Meanwhile, trump ran a campaign in opposition to their own GOP 'autopsy' report, also full of facts and figures.
So how smart is your emperical evidence crafted strategy?
You don't inspire voters with a spread sheet. You don't get republicans to vote for you by trying to be republican. The last election proved that. Jill stein voters didn't cause a wipe out of the Democratic Party. Weak tea third way democrats did running a resume for president.


Edited by chunkstyle (07/10/18 04:26 AM)

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#307340 - 07/10/18 02:39 PM Re: Pie Chart Fight [Re: chunkstyle]
chunkstyle Offline
journeyman

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 965
Another case in point. From none other than our 'special friend' the UK.
Third way 'New Labour' PM Tony Blair convincing himself in the Daily Mail that Theresa May is the one to get behind as opposed to Jeremy Corbyn and his lefty politics

Yeah...he said that...

The results are what we've all seen. Corbyn engaged voters with bold ideas and he got them turned out to vote and deliver a crushing defeat to the tories.

In some ways the centrist leadership reminds me of Blair's punch left while going right. I'm convinced it's a mindset coming out of fancy colleges.

I'm not sure why aging boomers in political leadership have sold out of their principles or morphed into this bankrupt 'opportunity thru capitalism' approach for ordering society. My guess is, once in office, they smell the money and walk off in that direction. I'm guessing it's these quant articles that rationalize the palm greasing, allowing such compromised leadership in the party. It's an odd thing to see a cohort of children so enthusiastically embrace market democracy and tear down the new deal but here we are and were stuck with em in leadership. It seems to be reaching it's logical conclusion politically and economically. It will be succeeding generations that will suffer the consequences of these horrible McMansion people politics.

It also perhaps justifies meddling in primary elections.


Edited by chunkstyle (07/10/18 02:40 PM)

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#307342 - 07/10/18 02:58 PM Re: Pie Chart Fight [Re: chunkstyle]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 16203
My frustration continues. Absolutely nothing you said addresses anything in the article or its analysis except the assertion that "maybe lean Democratic means different things over time.". In other words, my friend, you are using the same anti-intellectual methodology/language used by the GOP. It's all about the gut and facts don't matter. You do understand why that tends to end, rather than further discussion, right? As my wife often reminds me, "Feelings" can't be refuted.

I do agree that winning elections has to be based upon promoting a popular agenda with popular-enough candidates. But it also involves a lot of analysis - targeting, media buys, messaging, etc. You have acknowledged as much, in your own way. Your response is "it wasn't good enough". To which I say, "Well, duh." But why?

I return to the central question: can the Democrats win without "moderates"? Definite them any way you want to. I'm a moderate.

(BTW, still no pie charts... wink Sarcasm doesn't play well on paper, but you can't have a pie [chart] fight without pies! Put up your pies! [Or charts])

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#307343 - 07/10/18 03:06 PM Re: Pie Chart Fight [Re: chunkstyle]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 16203
Okay, now I have to say this: "No, he didn't say that" If you read the article, you find out the headline misstates his statement. It's kind of like relying on Fox Noose for your information. Daily Mail bias.

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#307347 - 07/10/18 04:05 PM Re: Pie Chart Fight [Re: chunkstyle]
chunkstyle Offline
journeyman

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 965

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