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#307213 - 07/02/18 01:55 AM Re: The End of the Independent Judiciary [Re: pondering_it_all]
chunkstyle Offline
member

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 1722
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
All of those different things combined to give us Trump. Just about any single one of them could have given Clinton a win. It's no use arguing over it. We're all right.

If third-party voters and Sanders supporters had turned out and voted for Clinton, we would not have Trump appointing his second SC nomination now. If Comey had timed his press releases differently, we would not have Trump appointing his second SC nomination now. If the Russian Troll Farm had not attacked relentlessly, we would not have Trump appointing his second SC nomination now. If Republicans had not spent the last 30 years defaming the Clintons, we would not have Trump appointing his second SC nomination now.


A lot of things gave us trump. I would disagree with your list. THAT is the main point of my argument.

Sanders primary supporters defected at the historical average that all losing primary candidate voters have defected. An exception to this is the amount of Hillary supporters who went republican in her failed primary bid against Obama. Stop scapegoating Sanders supporters. They did they're job and voted for her at historical levels of losing candidate support.

The Russian troll farm is a joke when compared to the hundreds of millions of dollars that were spent by both candidates campaigns and the hundreds of millions of dollars more spent by their dark monies. Well over a billion dollars was spent on propaganda by both candidates to influence public perception. Last I heard, the estimated amount of buy in by the Russians was around 600K.They must be internet Clickbait and Meme geniuses! I must admit, I was almost swayed when I saw Jesus arm wrestling Satan for Trump. For a moment I thought 'Maybe I'm wrong about this guy from Manhattan'.
Comey was a dick. No argument here.




Edited by chunkstyle (07/02/18 01:56 AM)

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#307214 - 07/02/18 02:26 AM Re: The End of the Independent Judiciary [Re: NW Ponderer]
chunkstyle Offline
member

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 1722
Originally Posted By: NW Ponderer
Chunk, just admit it. You are the problem. wink

I think, by and large, the voting population simply didn't see the Supreme Court as the issue that it was in the 2016 election, consistent with past history. I am more sensitive to it, since that is the bailiwick that I've lived in for 30+ years. Now, alas, it is too late. (By the way, cs, I don't think you can establish your claim empirically. To wit: Family Feud: Democratic Activists v. Dem...tained Majority.)


PIE CHART FIGHT!!!

Rilly NWP, what is with centrists and their pie charts and graphs!

O.K., I read the article and the first thing that struck me is that it's relevant only in as much as it's looking at the people who voted. What about the people who didn't vote? Why aren't they voting? Cortez's win may give some clues.

Working in a primary can give you some more. Democratic primaries are decided by a very small percentage of voters. single digits. Candidates like this as they only have to focus on the reliable voters that show up and vote and can forget the rest. Costs less too. That worked until, in Crowley's case, it didn't. She brought in more voters than the usual. Enough to do the job to win and show the vulnerability of counting on a small slice of the electorate. How did she bring them in? By going populist and going left she energized a base of voters that had been ignored.....

Finally, the primaries themselves are closed off from Independents. Sanders has called for allowing independents to vote in the primaries to make the party more inclusive to the process. The party has said NO. An independent that is invested in a candidate by voting in the primary is one, I'm gunna guess, that will stick around and vote thru in the general. But again, your referenced article doesn't address these concerns or observations.
I hate to break it to you, bruddah, but the Brooklyn squad was looking at similar numbers and analytics. Remember all the pre-election hype of the amazing machinery the Clinton machine was. Guess what?
It didn't have a left turn signal and couldn't drive to Michigan. The numbers told them they didn't have to.


Edited by chunkstyle (07/02/18 02:35 AM)

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#307215 - 07/02/18 05:09 AM Re: The End of the Independent Judiciary [Re: NW Ponderer]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 8778
Loc: North San Diego County
The Russians may have only spent $600,000 but they spent it on bots, and bots are fantastically cheap. Not to mention that they spent most of that money paying their Russian employees in Russia, where wages are a lot less than the other people spending non-bot dollars for American products.

Simply based on my experience in the months before the election, everywhere I went online that allowed user posts was FLOODED with Russian troll posts. As such it was probably the most massive campaign ever carried out online.

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#307217 - 07/02/18 01:52 PM Re: The End of the Independent Judiciary [Re: NW Ponderer]
chunkstyle Offline
member

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 1722
Almost all comment sections devolve into food fights and have been since the dawn of the internet. It may have re-enforced some voters bias, others not so much. Have you had your mind changed by comment postings? How deep into a 3k post comment thread do you go PIA?

Final thought NWP, How does the articles' analysis square the dynamics of the past election with all the left/right leaning activists vs moderates, etc, regarding the decidedly left Sanders primary campaign? Polls were showing him leading by wider margins against Trump as compared to Hillary.
I wonder if the politico's who are downplaying Cortez's victory over Crowley are also looking at pie charts and graphs and concluding it was an anomaly based on race identity and her opponents neglect and drawing the wrong conclusions because, you know, the data informs their logic, etc....

My apologies for pulling the thread off topic (again).


Edited by chunkstyle (07/02/18 01:56 PM)

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#307228 - 07/02/18 08:17 PM Re: The End of the Independent Judiciary [Re: NW Ponderer]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2567
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
Couple of things. First, not all states force the voters to declare for a party. I live in the state of washington and our voting thing is, I guess, different. We don't have to tell anybody anything about our party stuff, we also have the top 2 system (the top two in a primary are the final candidates, regardless of party so, for instance, two dems could face off against one another). We also have our ballots mailed to us so we have the onerous duty that requires us to put a stamp on the ballot and mail it back or drop it off at the courthouse. The ballot system is so hard that, in our last election, a whole 38% voted (the final NOT the primary).

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#307233 - 07/03/18 05:04 AM Re: The End of the Independent Judiciary [Re: NW Ponderer]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 17092
Here's the thing, Chunk. Pie Charts are just graphical representations of the empirical evidence. They are just a way of demonstrating in digestible form the information they are derived from. There's a lot of grousing going on, here. But there is no refuting Pondering's point: "All of those different things combined to give us Trump. Just about any single one of them could have given Clinton a win." Clinton did win the popular vote. It should not have been close, actually. But it was. The difference, really, was discipline. The Republicans voted for their candidate. The Democrats didn't (in the right places). A change of 80,000 votes out of 128,838,342 or .0621% would have changed the result (or about 1/36th of Clinton's popular vote margin).

I'm sorry, but, having been steeped in Political Science since I was a Freshman in college, I tend to think in terms of analysis rather than speculation. The argument that "Bernie would have done better" is meaningless for all kinds of reasons, not the least of which is that it is purely counterfactual. The same polls that are used for that argument also projected Clinton to win by a landslide (she didn't). Statistically speaking, the margin of Trump's victory can be entirely demonstrated to have been the result of Comey's actions. The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election - Fivethirtyeight. There are other reasons, of course, but that is as good as any.

As you noted, of course, this should all have been relegated to a different thread. This thread is supposed to be about the judiciary (or lack thereof).

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#307236 - 07/03/18 06:12 AM Re: The End of the Independent Judiciary [Re: pondering_it_all]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline

It's the Despair Quotient!
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 14303
Loc: Whittier, California
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
The Russians may have only spent $600,000 but they spent it on bots, and bots are fantastically cheap. Not to mention that they spent most of that money paying their Russian employees in Russia, where wages are a lot less than the other people spending non-bot dollars for American products.

Simply based on my experience in the months before the election, everywhere I went online that allowed user posts was FLOODED with Russian troll posts. As such it was probably the most massive campaign ever carried out online.



Do corporate controlled "bots" have free speech rights?
According to the logic of Citizens United, it would appear that they do.
_________________________
The only people pushing the Athenian Straw Man Nonexistent Threat of Slippery Slope Windyfoggery (ASMNSSW) RE DEMOCRACY are people who have a misunderstanding/problem or hatred of democracy. (See AUTHORITARIANS)

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#307240 - 07/03/18 03:33 PM Re: The End of the Independent Judiciary [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 17092
America's Red and Blue Judges - the Atlantic. "Not since the New Deal crisis of 1937 has the Supreme Court been so clearly revealed to the world as fully enmeshed in the rankest partisan politics. There seems little prospect of disengagement any time soon." This year, every major decision by the Court was a Republican decision.
_________________________
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich

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#307296 - 07/06/18 10:27 PM Re: The End of the Independent Judiciary [Re: NW Ponderer]
Greger Offline

Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 15461
Loc: Florida
Quote:
This year, every major decision by the Court was a Republican decision.


You'll hafta get used to it, there's gonna be a bunch of years like that.
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken." Oscar Wilde

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#307305 - 07/08/18 03:13 AM Re: The End of the Independent Judiciary [Re: NW Ponderer]
rporter314 Offline
old hand

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 6846
Loc: Highlands, Tx
The problem I see with any nominee is whether he/she is loyal to Mr Trump, which would should be of great concern as that person probably will be involved in any SC proceedings regarding Mr Trump and his possible criminal activities.

He would have the current crop of Republicans who have no integrity and a SC which would side with him on every issue.

This could be as close to a dictatorship in America as we have ever seen or imagined. We may actually be frakked.
_________________________
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty

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