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Israel negotiating with Hungary on revisionist Holocaust museum
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Brexit Eve
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Our political elders
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Round table NOVEMBER 2018
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12/01/18 07:59 PM
Historic Corruption
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Sleazy Slimeball or Slimy Sleazebag?
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11/30/18 08:25 PM
2 million federal workers receive memo warning they can’t use the word ‘resist
by pondering_it_all
11/30/18 06:45 AM
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#308942 - 10/17/18 05:15 PM Debt Crises
NW Ponderer Offline
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Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 16372
As we prepare for the 116th Congress to be seated in 2019, the nation faces a series of debt crises. First, of course, is the giant hole the 115th Congress created with the most irresponsible tax cut in the nation's history: Federal Deficit Jumps 17 Percent As Tax Cuts Eat Into Government Revenue (npr). As virtually every economist noted beforehand, a plunge in revenues was inevitable, and can't be made up. It is unlikely that the next Congress will be able to overcome this disaster. But that is not the end of the crises the 115th (and previous congresses) have delivered.

The Student Loan Debt Crisis Is About to Get Worse (Bloomberg).
Quote:
Student loans have seen almost 157 percent in cumulative growth over the last 11 years. By comparison, auto loan debt has grown 52 percent while mortgage and credit card debt actually fell by about 1 percent, according to a Bloomberg Global Data analysis of federal loans. All told, there’s a whopping $1.5 trillion in student loans out there (through the second quarter of 2018), marking the second largest consumer debt segment in the country after mortgages, according to the Federal Reserve. And the number keeps growing.
Moreover, new available data shows The looming student loan default crisis is worse than we thought (Brookings). The default rate is growing and is being led by for-profit "universities" that prey on the underprivileged (read Non-White) and have been unleashed by Betsy DeVos.

Finally, medical bankruptcy remains the number one cause of personal bankruptcy (Motley Fool). These bankruptcies are occurring despite increased coverage under the ACA, are having a profound ripple effect, especially in rural areas (Healthcare bankruptcies more than triple in 2017), and are a significant drag on the economy.

The American people in general, and Congress in particular, are not very good at seeing second- and third-order effects of their actions. They are so focused on the here and now, and the next election, that 5-10 years out are beyond their comprehension. That is why the deficit grows, climate change accelerates, and the economy cycles from crisis to crisis, while tales are told (and offices occupied) by idiots.
_________________________
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich

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#308943 - 10/17/18 05:58 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: NW Ponderer]
jgw Offline
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Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2194
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
You have to give the Republicans credit. It was looking, at least a year ago, that the Republicans and Jackass were not going to leave yet another fiscal mess for the Dems to deal with. Now, however, they are starting to think that our debt will soon be bigger than our GDP and one can only imagine what happens then.

Remember, Jackass claimed to be the master of debt - he just didn't pay his debts (a number of suits will arise as soon as he is no longer president). Now, however, there is some evidence that he doesn't want to pay anything on the national debt either. After this one hopefully gets fixed by the Dems I would hope that they actually start 'educating', regularly and with vigor, every day, why we have yet another Republican mess to fix.

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#308944 - 10/17/18 05:59 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: NW Ponderer]
chunkstyle Offline
member

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 1158
Yeah, more shock doctrine for us all...
Gotta cut us some programs and get whole again


Edited by chunkstyle (10/17/18 06:00 PM)

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#308947 - 10/17/18 06:36 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: NW Ponderer]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2194
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
This is just part of the Republican long term plan - get rid of ALL entitlements. Now that they feel they have fixed the courts this is their next long term plan. I also find it interesting that the Republicans are big on using the term "entitlements". EVERY Democrat running should point out, exactly, what "entitlements" mean, ie. healthcare, socials security, etc (you know, all expenditures not related to the military).

Its really kinda interesting. We are now spending more on paying the interest on the national debt than medicare costs us and that is going to get a LOT worse. They now have the deficit up to 3/4 of a trillion and climbing. They cleverly cut taxes during good times. Any economist, on either side, would tell you how bad a mistake that one was.

The last time we were in this fix was during WWII. The Dems fixed that one and they will have to fix this one too.

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#308948 - 10/17/18 08:15 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: jgw]
chunkstyle Offline
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Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 1158
Originally Posted By: jgw
This is just part of the Republican long term plan - get rid of ALL entitlements. Now that they feel they have fixed the courts this is their next long term plan.


Makes you Nostalgic for the days when Clinton and Gingrich wanted to merely privatize social Security. Privatization may be in the cards still. Memories of the meltdown are hazy and the reasons for it obscure.

Guess we'll have to wait and see what Mitch has on his mind.

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#308952 - 10/17/18 10:24 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: jgw]
Greger Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 14415
Loc: Florida
Quote:
This is just part of the Republican long term plan - get rid of ALL entitlements.

Which is balanced out by the Democrat's long term plan - making everything an entitlement.
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."— Oscar Wilde

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#308953 - 10/17/18 10:47 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: NW Ponderer]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2194
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
Just curious. "making everything an entitlement" what are the new entitlements you have in mind? I, consider "entitlements", for the Republicans, to be any gov expenditure that is not for the military. My suspicion is that healthcare for all, with gov taking over the entire healthcare industry, to be one that should be put in place before the entire nation is broke. If most of Europe has been able to do this successfully I expect we could too.

I also find it interesting that Obamacare, even though it was poorly written and seriously over regulated, was starting to reduce the cost curve, gather a huge database on what was working and what was not, and standardized much of the paperwork. If another run is made hopefully it will be a complete takeover and all the insurance companies will go away and all the reset (drugs, equipment, etc) will also get seriously regulated (suggest a movie called "the bleeding edge" to understand the greed, corruption and incompetence in the medical device industry).

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#308957 - 10/18/18 03:33 AM Re: Debt Crises [Re: NW Ponderer]
pdx rick Offline
Member
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 41065
Loc: Puget Sound, WA

Every Republican administration for the past 110 years - repeat, EVERY ONE has seen a recession.

Hmm


...and guess who gets America out of these recessions? It's not the Republicans.

coffee
_________________________
Contrarian, extraordinaire



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#308968 - 10/18/18 09:39 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: NW Ponderer]
jgw Offline
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Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2194
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
I thought it was only from Hoover up. In any case I find it really strange as I have yet to hear a single Dem mention it. Instead they let the Republicans tar them with the "raise taxes" thing. Right now the debt is spiraling and we will have a really dandy mess to fix this time around yet few, if any, are mentioning this one. I particularly liked the Republican plan to cut taxes, during a boom and then notify everybody that they gotta cut "entitlements" as they are out of money. At least Reagan actually raised taxes "to pay the bills". Now we have Jackass who, I think, just plans to not pay any debts, just as he has done his entire life (and has the law suits against him to pay his debts to prove it.

If the Dems actually do get the house the very first thing they should do is to roll back the gifts given to the 1% in the "tax cut" and, as far as I am concerned, go right ahead and raise their taxes too!

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#309023 - 10/22/18 07:00 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: NW Ponderer]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2194
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
Jackass, yesterday, tweeted that he wants to have another tax cut, this time for just the middle class. The current deficit is nearing a TRILLION dollars and another tax cut will take that one right over the top. This will mean that this administration has manager to do what no other has been able to do, raise the national debt by 3 TRILLION dollars all within 2 years!

Paying off the interest on the debt is getting very close to the amount we spend on the military and will probably actually be more by the end of the year. Our national debt is now larger than our entire GDP!

So, I guess, the mantra of the current administration goes something like; "tax cuts for everybody and the greatest debt increase EVER!" All of this will, of course, eventually collapse our economy, probably just in time for the Dems to step up and try and fix a Republican economy - yet again.

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#309027 - 10/23/18 01:32 AM Re: Debt Crises [Re: NW Ponderer]
pondering_it_all Offline
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Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 8069
Loc: North San Diego County
Of course, cutting Middle Class taxes now only to cut their Medicare and Social Security later is not really a tax cut. It's just a way to make them poor when they can no longer work.

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#309033 - 10/23/18 06:13 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: NW Ponderer]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2194
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
Jackass has proven that he has a pied piper talent - just not for rats but, rather, for the entranced. He can claim ANYTHING and they will believe. When they are asked about that their response, as far as I can tell, is absolutely nothing. I think, basically, they just don't care.

Who says that there is no magic - I would suggest that, given his obviously super powers of persuasion we are obviously dealing with a kind of magic. The only real question is where these powers come from, the Lord or the Devil?

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#309034 - 10/23/18 07:40 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: jgw]
Greger Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 14415
Loc: Florida
Quote:
I, consider "entitlements", for the Republicans, to be any gov expenditure that is not for the military.

Entitlements, exactly as their name implies, are monies or services that "we" are entitled to or guaranteed to receive. They have nothing to do with the belief that one is "entitled" or inherently deserving of privileges or special treatment.

Even Republican governments have expenditures and expenses outside the military that are not "entitlements".

Quote:
what are the new entitlements you have in mind

In general Democrats feel there should be more taxpayer funded items that the general populace should be entitled to.
We feel that healthcare is a right and that everyone should be entitled to receive at least basic healthcare.
Higher education is another. Rather than crushing student debt, all state schools would provide college education at no cost to the students.
A living wage. Congress needs to mandate that all businesses pay a minimum of $15 an hour.

You implement those three and a lot of other problems solve themselves.

But I was being facetious when I said that Democrats want to make everything an entitlement. That's more the view from the right where they don't believe the government should provide any services at all.
Except police and firefighters and soldiers.
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."— Oscar Wilde

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#309036 - 10/23/18 08:11 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: pondering_it_all]
Greger Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 14415
Loc: Florida
Quote:
cutting Middle Class taxes now only to cut their Medicare and Social Security later is not really a tax cut.


The problem with any tax cut is that it somehow needs to be offset by spending cuts.
Or else it goes on the credit card.

I'm more in favor of tax reform which addresses actual government spending needs.
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."— Oscar Wilde

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#309039 - 10/23/18 11:27 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: Greger]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 8069
Loc: North San Diego County
Quote:
The problem with any tax cut is that it somehow needs to be offset by spending cuts.
Or else it goes on the credit card.


Apparently not if you run up your credit card debt and then declare bankruptcy. I think that is the basic Trump MO. Nobody told him it doesn't work for the US debt, so he's sticking with what he knows.

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#309054 - 10/24/18 09:14 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: Greger]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2194
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
I do think healthcare should be an entitlement. If we had it we could save approximately 1.5 trillion dollars a year. While I do consider this to be a social right I also think that its a fiscal matter. When it comes to higher education I am not so sure. I do know that the student debt thing is an obscenity currently backed by our government, at least Obama tried to do something about it. It is interesting, however, that higher education, in other nations is free to the qualified. I have also met any number of American students in foreign places getting educationed (I don't think this is a word), doctors in Mexico, Pharmacists in Russia, etc.

The 15.00 mandate, where passed had a bunch of effects and not all of them were good. That being said it seems fair to me, especially when you are talking about places like McDonalds which are pure cash cows.

Conservatives don't like entitlements because they actually think that it takes away the right of individuals to do the right thing and take care of themselves. I have actually heard them say that if people don't do that, and die, its all their fault. When hearing this I didn't even know how to respond.

Anyway................

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#309072 - 10/26/18 03:14 AM Re: Debt Crises [Re: NW Ponderer]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 8069
Loc: North San Diego County
Even if some balk at free higher education, we could probably pass some kind of program where you trade state college grants for service for a number of years. We do that in some states for teachers, nurses, etc. The military does it for doctors. There is no reason we could not expand it massively. Any skill useful to the country or the state, could qualify. Even soft stuff like "music teacher". Everybody gets free college if they then spend four years (or whatever) working in that capacity for the government.

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#309077 - 10/26/18 04:20 AM Re: Debt Crises [Re: pondering_it_all]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline


Pooh-Bah

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 13409
Loc: Whittier, California
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
Even if some balk at free higher education, we could probably pass some kind of program where you trade state college grants for service for a number of years. We do that in some states for teachers, nurses, etc. The military does it for doctors. There is no reason we could not expand it massively. Any skill useful to the country or the state, could qualify. Even soft stuff like "music teacher". Everybody gets free college if they then spend four years (or whatever) working in that capacity for the government.


So many other countries already do this as a given, I don't get why we didn't start doing this a long time ago.
We simply must be willing to invest in our future.
_________________________
"The Left ones think I'm Right, the Right ones think I'm wrong."
Leon Russell - Magic Mirror"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-H1iQ5Y6Eg

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#309078 - 10/26/18 04:30 AM Re: Debt Crises [Re: pondering_it_all]
Greger Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 14415
Loc: Florida
I think there can be no argument that a healthier, better educated, better paid population is a plus from every direction you look at it.
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."— Oscar Wilde

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#309080 - 10/26/18 12:31 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: Greger]
chunkstyle Offline
member

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 1158
Originally Posted By: Greger
I think there can be no argument that a healthier, better educated, better paid population is a plus from every direction you look at it.




There's an amazing amount of boards of directors, shareholders and hedge fund managers that have disagreed with that notion for decades now Gregor. They also donate generously to BOTH parties.

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#309088 - 10/26/18 06:33 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: chunkstyle]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 8069
Loc: North San Diego County
Quote:
boards of directors, shareholders and hedge fund managers that have disagreed with that notion for decades


Really? Because I have heard nothing but complaints from companies that they can't find highly skilled people to hire.

I think it's just Republican politicians who want uneducated people.

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#309095 - 10/27/18 03:43 AM Re: Debt Crises [Re: NW Ponderer]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2194
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
The national debt, and the almost trillion dollar deficit, and the tariffs are taking a toll. The market, right now, is behaving like a car with a weak battery. It starts up, if backs down, it tries, it tries to start up again, it goes on and on until the the battery dies. Right now the battery is starting to die. If any of you are in the market be VERY careful. Add in the historical ability of the Republicans to wreck an economy there WILL be problems. You cannot time this market. You just have to either get out, or wait it out, and this one is going to be a duzy. Gold is already starting a run.

There is also the simple fact that the debt plus deficit, plus the current administration's disrespect for debt itself just might deal punishment to the dollar. When you add in our abandonment of European allies, and the Russian/Chinese long term, and ongoing efforts, to replace the American dollar as the world's currency..........

Just thought I would mention this one - its not going to be a whole bunch of fun..........

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#309101 - 10/27/18 01:43 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: NW Ponderer]
chunkstyle Offline
member

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 1158
I agree JGW. The debt is a ticking time bomb that could ultimately be a gift, as it's designed to be, for republicans and a hair coat for democrats as the 2008 recession was.
If the democratic corporate wing's behavior as minority party is anything to go buy I think it will be a hard landing for most Americans. At least we can look forward to Schumer shuffling his way down to a gas pump somewhere and demand the president to 'bring down these gas prices!' aping Reagan at the Berlin Wall.
Household debt, historically high mortgages as a % of average household income and the foreclosure of futures due to non dismissable student debt all seem to contradict and economy built on consumption and empire.
Another large problem is the destruction of described benefit pension plans. Were all in the market to save and protect any savings set aside for old age. Everyone is atomized into 401's and IRA', that are capable of saving. The current valuation of the market to the GDP makes me nervous.


Edited by chunkstyle (10/27/18 02:05 PM)

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#309102 - 10/27/18 01:46 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: pondering_it_all]
chunkstyle Offline
member

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 1158
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
Quote:
boards of directors, shareholders and hedge fund managers that have disagreed with that notion for decades


Really? Because I have heard nothing but complaints from companies that they can't find highly skilled people to hire.

I think it's just Republican politicians who want uneducated people.


So why did carrier leave those workers high and dry in Indiana after getting tax concessions PIA?

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#309108 - 10/28/18 03:52 AM Re: Debt Crises [Re: chunkstyle]
Greger Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 14415
Loc: Florida
Quote:
So why did carrier leave those workers high and dry in Indiana after getting tax concessions

Because they can get the sh*t built cheaper somewhere else. America's role in the new global economy might not be in manufacturing.
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."— Oscar Wilde

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#309109 - 10/28/18 01:24 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: NW Ponderer]
chunkstyle Offline
member

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 1158
Exactly. An empire who's manufacturing will be done in its low wage vassal states while it's own economy becomes dominated by the FIRE economy.
How's that been working out for the middle class?
Perhaps it's all the natural order of things for jobs, capitol and assets to go abroad. It's gods will. The invisible hand, etc... You can't do anything about it. And so what if the gobs of profit selling those products back home go largely untaxed, producing more burden of taxation on the ever shrinking middle class. It's the economic natural order, were told.
When AI becomes a threat to the livelihoods of the 'ladders of opportunity' set I think the economic savaging of our domestic industries and communities will be viewed much differently.


Edited by chunkstyle (10/28/18 01:36 PM)

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#309111 - 10/28/18 01:33 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: NW Ponderer]
chunkstyle Offline
member

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 1158
The NLRB just made the picket line unlawful.
Gods will again.

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#309118 - 10/28/18 07:48 PM Re: Debt Crises [Re: chunkstyle]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2194
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
Just a thought. "non dismissable student debt" is a subject worthy of its own place under "The Republican Fix of the Bankruptcy Law". They did this several years ago and it was pretty straight forward. If you have debt to either Government OR A Bank - you must pay it back, there is no get out free card, there are no excuses, you pay it back or live with it for the entire rest of your life. This was a wonderful solution to uppity poor trying to improve their lives and its worked wonders!

This one is akin to the law passed, again by Republicans, many years ago at the behest of the banking industry. The logic was infallible. Personal information belongs to the person to do with what they will. This means, the banks said, that they did have personal information on clients but they got that information freely from the persons themselves. This being the case they certainly should not be held responsible for an action performed by the person themselves. The congress, in its infinite wisdom bought that one, hook link and sinker, and actually extended the law they passed to include ANYBODY holding the personal information of others.

We live with this one every day but obviously, nobody, on either side, gives a damn, considers it as a problem, or even bothers to challenge the flawed logic.

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