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#307739 - 07/30/18 06:58 PM the economy
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2153
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
I have been preaching, for some time, that the economy of the jackass will fail. Here is a link to some charts:
http://time.com/money/5290948/stock-market-2018-7-investing-charts/

Basically, its starting to fail. Its down 1.2% since the first of this year and has been waaay too volatile. Its virtually impossible to time the market but there are long time trends and this one seems to be on a down curve. If you can't afford to hold on through a downturn I would suggest you get out right now.

The reason I am posting this is because I have had waay too many friends who get out when it hits bottom and never get in again so they just lose their money. Remember, its a veritable surety that if its behaving this way during a Republican administration, we are going to have an economic downturn as this this seems to be an historic fact.

Just saying............



Edited by jgw (07/30/18 07:00 PM)

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#307743 - 07/31/18 10:12 AM Re: the economy [Re: jgw]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 16303
I had been meaning to address this over the last week of Trump crowing about economic numbers. Virtually everything he has taken credit for are what are known in economics as "trailing indicators". In other words, the trends her takes credit for have largely nothing to do with Trump policies. This time last year, the New York Times published the story,The Markets Are Up, Unemployment Is Down.
How Much Credit Should Trump Get?
(NYT, subscription). Then, as now, the answer remains, "largely, none." The full story on Trump's 'economic turnaround' - CNN. The upshot? Like most every pronouncement of Trump, it is mostly misdirection and downright prevarication. Fact Check: More lies, false claims by Trump - Capitol Hill Blue.

It's basically still Obama's economy he's taking credit for. As you've noted, when Trump's economy kicks in, we're headed for a fall. A big one.
_________________________
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich

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#307744 - 07/31/18 02:04 PM Re: the economy [Re: jgw]
Ujest Shurly Offline
newbie

Registered: 10/16/16
Posts: 362
Loc: Sterling Heights, MI, USA
Just chumming the waters...


The chum ... MSN
_________________________
Vote 2020.

Life is like a PB&J sandwich
The older you get, the moldery and crustier you get.

Now, get off my grass!

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#307745 - 07/31/18 03:31 PM Re: the economy [Re: Ujest Shurly]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 16303
Here's how the Trump economy works: Trump weighs big tax cut for rich: report - THE HILL. Note, this is intended to be a unilateral gift, not going through Congress.
Quote:
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin at a recent G-20 meeting in Argentina said if the tax cut can't be done through Congress, the administration will "look at what tools" are necessary to consider the move.

"If it can't get done through a legislation process, we will look at what tools at Treasury we have to do it on our own and we'll consider that," Mnuchin said. "We are studying that internally, and we are also studying the economic costs and the impact on growth."
The problem, of course, is that it has already been studied: Indexing Capital Gains to Inflation - the Wharton School.
Quote:
Our analysis suggests that this policy would cost $102 billion dollars over the next decade. While high-income households would benefit most, the share of taxes paid by AGI would not change meaningfully.

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#307746 - 07/31/18 08:55 PM Re: the economy [Re: NW Ponderer]
rporter314 Offline
old hand

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 6541
Loc: Highlands, Tx
Quote:
when Trump's economy kicks in, we're headed for a fall
and that is where you are wrong. Mr Trump has taken credit for the gift from Pres Obama but when his economy tanks he will turn it back over to Pres Obama.

Do you not understand how narcissism works? grin
_________________________
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty

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#307747 - 07/31/18 09:49 PM Re: the economy [Re: rporter314]
Greger Online   content

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 14367
Loc: Florida
Quote:
we're headed for a fall


Boy Howdy are we ever.

Everybody in the world except Republicans knows this. World leaders are talking behind our backs now, making plans without us...we're not cool anymore. Just like us, they know that, along and along, the grits are gonna hit the pan.

Trump has said and done a lot of really awful stuff. But so far nothing that has really roiled the markets. Business is ticking along as usual in spite of Mr. Trump. The world is holding its breath. A favorable turnout for Democrats in November would render him virtually powerless. Otherwise everybody has to wait until 2020. If we don't correct this mistake by then, things might get really dicey...This is like slowly clacking up the tallest roller coaster in the universe...

Such a ride...good times, eh?
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken." Oscar Wilde

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#309122 - 10/29/18 01:03 PM Re: the economy [Re: Greger]
logtroll Offline
veteran

Registered: 04/26/10
Posts: 8906
Loc: New Mexico (not old Mexico)
Bonus Decade
Quote:
Some of us have a different view. From our minority perspective, the global economy as currently configured is inherently not just unstable, but unsustainable. The economy depends on perpetual growth of GDP, whereas we live upon a finite planet on which the compounded growth of any material process or quantity inevitably leads to a crash. The economy requires ever-increasing energy supplies, mostly from fossil fuels, whereas coal, oil, and natural gas are nonrenewable, depleting, and climate-changing resources. And the economy, rather than being circular, like ecosystems (where waste from one component is food for another, so all elements are continually recycled), is instead linear (proceeding from resource extraction to waste disposal), even though our planet has limited resources and finite waste sinks.
_________________________
"You can't fix a problem until you understand what the problem is." Logtroll

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#309127 - 10/30/18 05:42 AM Re: the economy [Re: jgw]
chunkstyle Offline
member

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 1076
Good article Logs.
I had been doing some reading lately on the fracking bubble as I'm anxious of where the next commodity bubble will occur.
All in all, the brief reprieve from the notion of a global economic collapse due to its reliance on fossil fuel production having peaked is a hard idea to swallow. The authors recognizing their disappointment of the lack of sales with their two books describing this overshoot of civilization doesn't surprise.
Chris Hedges has been lecturing audiences for awhile now on the pathology of civilization collapsing and has covered quite a few first hand as a journalist. One of the things he noted was how governments are no longer responsive to its people in fundamental ways, its ruling elites retreat into their forbidden cities and hit the mat on the accelerator. The name I'm hearing for the current global crises is being called NeoLiberal Fascism.
The idea that we would willingly give over our political governance and social organizing to capitalism was lunacy but here we are. It looks as though democracy has had it and when the next financial crises hits, my guess is authoritarian corporate dictatorship.
Cold comfort to note that it wasn't the left that brought this crises on the world. That force, which was a traditional bulwark against state oppression and fought savage fights for democratic political space, was eradicated decades ago.
Neoliberalism on the other hand has been exported nearly everywhere. Masquerading as some kinda tide that was going to lift all boats and bring in a new day.

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#309131 - 10/30/18 05:40 PM Re: the economy [Re: jgw]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 16303
The economy really is a zero-sum game - it's just that some of the costs are not recognized: Pollution, diminishment of fixed resources, economic disparities. Rising "GDP", stock markets, etc., are false measures of prosperity. The quality of life for much of the world has improved, it is true, but there are costs borne by others that we do not take into account - the squalid conditions in the poorer regions of the world, extinction of species, population migration, war and famine. There will come a reckoning. Unfortunately, as always, the elites will avoid the brunt of that reckoning, and a disproportionate share will fall on those with the least resources.

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#309132 - 10/30/18 08:26 PM Re: the economy [Re: logtroll]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 7997
Loc: North San Diego County
Quote:
we live upon a finite planet on which the compounded growth of any material process or quantity inevitably leads to a crash. The economy requires ever-increasing energy supplies, mostly from fossil fuels, whereas coal, oil, and natural gas are nonrenewable, depleting, and climate-changing resources.


Of course, that is only true if the human race limits it's inputs to those on the planet and doesn't develop fusion power. Either bringing in resources from off-planet or unlocking fusion sends the equilibrium of in a wildly different direction. And if there's one thing humans are good at, it's getting around "inherent" limits.

Just fusion alone (which we have had some success with for over 60 years) would give us the energy needed to run the carbon cycle backwards and transfer all that carbon from the atmosphere back into the ground. There are vast areas of the Earth that are not feasible for growing crops or livestock, but with cheap water and fertilizers they would flourish.

Population growth can be reversed too: Just pay people enough to have zero or one child per couple. Offer them security in their old age, and the need for lots of kids is gone.

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