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#314487 - 08/31/19 02:30 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Greger]
logtroll Offline
veteran

Registered: 04/26/10
Posts: 10157
Loc: One of the Mexicos
Trump vs Dems polling
Quote:
Trump trails Democrats by a historically large margin

... it's worth pointing out the historically bad position Trump is in. No incumbent president has ever polled this poorly against his likely challengers at this point in the campaign.
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#314488 - 08/31/19 02:57 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: logtroll]
NW Ponderer Offline
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Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 17387
Let us hope the polling continues its current trend. Two more Republicans pulled the plug on reelection just yesterday, which bodes well for Dems in the Senate and House, as well as influencing the GOP turnout. More than a dozen Republicans are leavin...g again in 2020 (USA Today). I don't want to get overexcited, as it is still 2019. I'm also impressed by Biden's staying power. I think the "gaffe-machine" mantra is baked in and he is still popular with a wide swath of the Democratic electorate. In fact, he's never been unpopular. He'll need a strong, young, probably female running mate. Trump, I think, is pretty much maxed out. He'll get the Republican vote, hands down (although his approval even there is down), but his standing among independents is eroding rapidly. Majority of independents oppose Trump reelection, undecided on 2020 Democrats: poll (Marist via npr)

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#314492 - 08/31/19 03:10 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: NW Ponderer]
logtroll Offline
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Apparently, The Mooch is predicting that Trump will drop out if the polls get too bad, and blame Fake News and the media. Sounds par for the course, at least for Trump Golf Rules!
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#314495 - 08/31/19 03:26 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: logtroll]
NW Ponderer Offline
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Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 17387
Originally Posted By: logtroll
Apparently, The Mooch is predicting that Trump will drop out if the polls get too bad, and blame Fake News and the media. Sounds par for the course, at least for Trump Golf Rules!
I'll give Mooch this much credit: he knows Trump well enough to get under his skin.

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#314497 - 08/31/19 04:02 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: logtroll]
Greger Online   content


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Registered: 11/24/06
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I been tellin' y'all this for weeks.

Trump is un-electable.

I wouldn't trust those polls to be an accurate prediction of a future election but they're a snapshot of what's going on.

People Don't Like Trump. Even people who like him don't like him and wish he'd just shut the f*ck up.

When you poll a candidate(like Trump) who is universally disliked against a candidate(like Biden) who is liked by all, you're gonna get a result like this. It's non binding. An actual election wouldn't yield the same results. Biden would still win, but not by that margin.
Against Trump, a glass of water would win.

Republicans are embarrassed too. Hatrack wouldn't even talk about him.
Mumbled some platitude and went back to ruminating about the FFs. Our colleague in Massachusets says simply "he's not my cup of tea".

He's the candidate that nobody wants to have a beer with.
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#314867 - 09/05/19 01:07 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Greger]
logtroll Offline
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Registered: 04/26/10
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Is Trump trying to lose in 2020?
Quote:
Trump’s policies hit barely-red states hardest

As Thursday’s state-level figures suggest, the categorical eligibility smackdown is going to hit especially hard in four states where very narrow Trump wins in 2016 tilted the electoral college irrevocably in his favor.

Trump won Wisconsin by less than 23,000 votes last time. He’ll have dumped 118,000 Wisconsin residents off of food stamps by Election Day if the rule goes through as planned.

One in every nine people currently benefiting from SNAP in Michigan will be booted under the rule – roughly 165,000 men, women, and children in total. Trump won the state by just 10,704 votes last go round.

In Pennsylvania, which Trump carried by just under 47,000 votes, his food stamps cut will dump more than five times that many people off the food-aid rolls.
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To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.”
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#314877 - 09/05/19 04:48 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: logtroll]
Greger Online   content


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Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 16859
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He never wanted to win in the first place. The whole campaign was just a publicity stunt for his hotel in the old post office building.

After eight stultifying years under Obama where nothing was ever accomplished due to the Republican blockade in Congress. Voters wanted to see some action in Washington.

So they strapped Trump with dynamite and elected him to do a job he couldn't do.

Hasn't been a boring moment since.
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#314893 - 09/05/19 07:19 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Greger]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline
It's the Despair Quotient!
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Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 15728
Loc: Whittier, California
Originally Posted By: Greger


So they strapped Trump with dynamite and elected him to do a job he couldn't do.

Hasn't been a boring moment since.



Are you sure about that?
I don't think the American people strapped anything onto Trump.
I am pretty sure Donald Trump tricked the Acme folks into loaning him the dynamite and he just SHOWED UP all strapped and ready to go.

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#314940 - 09/06/19 01:08 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: logtroll]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 601
I'd say it depends on what poll you're looking at. IBD/TIPP had Biden up by 12 over Trump, but Warren, Harris and Sanders all within the margin of error. Basically tied. Quinnipiac had all four with double digit leads over Trump. Emerson has Biden up by 8, Sanders by 4, Harris and Warren tied. With the margin of error of plus or minus four points.

Those are the three latest polls of head to head match ups against potential Democratic opponents to Trump. As you can see there is a huge difference in the polls.

Polls this far out in my opinion are basically meaningless. Historically in presidential races after we know who is facing whom. Romney had a 50-44 lead over Obama in May 2012. Kerry had a 50-44 lead in March 2004 and a 50-45 lead in July.

Now if you look at the latest generic presidential vote poll, 40% say Democratic candidate, 37% Trump. But of most interest to me is how independents stack up, Trump leads 29-26 over the generic democratic candidate. Question 43.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3gj4ffirhi/econTabReport.pdf

Independents make up approximately 40% of the electorate, how they vote is usually decisive in the general election. Just keep on eye on what independents are up to.


Edited by perotista (09/06/19 01:17 AM)
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#314944 - 09/06/19 01:43 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: perotista]
Greger Online   content


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 16859
Loc: Florida
I'm an independent. I'm not pleased at all with the thought of Biden as the nominee or the president, but I'm kind of "middle of the road" so I'd rather have Warren than Sanders. But since I am independent I'm not allowed to vote in my state primary. My voice once again silenced by the authorities....
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