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A possible run on America?
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#310848 - 02/11/19 12:12 AM A possible run on America?
chunkstyle Offline

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 1294
"The end of our monetary imperialism, about which I first wrote in 1972 in Super Imperialism, stuns even an informed observer like me. It took a colossal level of arrogance, short-sightedness and lawlessness to hasten its decline — something that only crazed Neocons like John Bolton, Eliot Abrams and Mike Pompeo could deliver for Donald Trump."

An interesting article written by economist Michael Hudson about the alienation of countries and a possible re-alignment of currency and gold reserves.

Trumps brilliant strategy to dismember US dollar hegemony

If things come to pass as described 2019 could get real bumpy!

Edited by chunkstyle (02/11/19 12:21 AM)

#310853 - 02/11/19 05:49 PM Re: A possible run on America? [Re: chunkstyle]
NW Ponderer Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 16560
Relax, Chicken Little! smile

I think this is an interesting (if once again, over-the-top) article, and the central point is valid: Donald Trump is destablizing the international monetary (and virtually every other) order. But its conclusions are, I think, more than a little overblown.

My first point is that the author has been predicting the collapse for 50 years. "It's gonna happen!" predictions are kinda uninformative when they keep not happening, like the Second Coming of Christ, or the World Communist Revolution, or the End of the World, or our Sun dying in a supernova (actually, only a nova, but why quibble).

It is true that the U.S. Dollar has not always been the "world currency" - indeed, for hundreds of years before 1776 it couldn't have been. How the U.S. Dollar Became the World's Reserve Currency (Investopedia). But, to address the question, one has to ask Why the U.S. Dollar Is the Global Currency? (the balance). By the way, it isn't, which is part of the answer. "As of the third quarter of 2018, it makes up nearly 62 percent of all known central bank foreign exchange reserves. That makes it the de facto global currency, even though it doesn't hold an official title." Now, 62% is pretty good, but it is not a complete monopoly.

The problem with the author's argument is that it doesn't address the underlying basis for the Dollar's preeminence - the strength of the U.S. economy. The fact is, we pay our bills (except when Republicans are in charge). Yes, Trump has damaged that reputation, but bankers tend to be pragmatic. Trump is going to be gone, soon, one way or another, but the United States is not likely to be. The other contenders for "world currency" are not as solid, so consider the alternatives: the Euro, the Yen (both of which are "new" currencies), the Yuan or the Pound. Any look like better bets?

That, I believe, is the fundamental fault of the argument. Indeed, the 2007-8 economic crisis actually improved the Dollar's position. Any future crises are likely to do the same, no matter how bad Donald Trump gets - and it is highly likely to get worse.

#310857 - 02/11/19 07:20 PM Re: A possible run on America? [Re: chunkstyle]
jgw Offline

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2319
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
Years ago China and Russia tried to replace the United States as the reserve currency. They failed because nobody would go along with them. This time, however, Russia has Jackass doing what needs to be done to get that done. The price we will pay will be interesting as I suspect, this time around, its gonna happen. At the very least the dollar will do a serious tank - don't even want to think about what happens "at the most".

#310872 - 02/11/19 10:18 PM Re: A possible run on America? [Re: chunkstyle]
chunkstyle Offline

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 1294
Coupla thoughts...

One is the growing economy of China and the resumption of it's historic economic role as the center of world commerce. I see that as an eventuality and don't fear it as most on the right do.
China has invested in housing, transportation, education and technology like we did after WW2 and I don't see how they will not be paid dividends on those investments made in it's people. In fact, it already has.
China is also using soft power much better than the U.S. in areas of the world having resources. There's no reason to think the world wouldn't prefer the stability of China over the Mafia approach of the U.S. as we continue or military adventurism.
Second is the Mackinder/Kissenger Eurasion nightmare. He's not the only one that has been talking about this situation and is well worth paying attention too. How can Europe not be pulled into the Asian landmass economic orbit? It literally launched an age of exploration to find a quicker route prior to the industrial revolution.
I don't see much to be encouraged about and neither did Prof. McCoy in his discussion with Chris Hedges back in 2017.
Don't get me wrong. I will not be sorry to see our Empire go. It serves no one but the rich and kills plenty of poors.

Edited by chunkstyle (02/11/19 10:36 PM)

#310903 - 02/13/19 04:15 AM Re: A possible run on America? [Re: chunkstyle]
Greger Online   content


Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 14595
Loc: Florida
Ayup. China has been playing 3D Chess while the US has been playing Whack-A-Mole.

But China needs a healthy US market too.
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."— Oscar Wilde

#310905 - 02/13/19 07:45 AM Re: A possible run on America? [Re: chunkstyle]
pondering_it_all Offline

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 8243
Loc: North San Diego County
Actually, any problem we have with automation making jobs obsolete, will only be much worse in China! It is having too many people for the available jobs and they have WAY more people than we do. Of course if a few billion Chinese people starve to death, it might not bother their leaders much.

In the mean while, I foresee them exporting much more labor in the future, like the Philippines does now. We could end up with a domestic servant guest worker program! Chinese gardeners instead of Mexicans. Chinese farm workers everywhere.

#310918 - 02/13/19 06:54 PM Re: A possible run on America? [Re: chunkstyle]
jgw Offline

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2319
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
I think its all moving very slowly, but irresistibly. Nobody is going to stop it. World population continues to grow and the industrialized nations can siphon some of excess off but, eventually (sooner rather than later, I suspect), the industrialized nations will shut down that spigot. Now throw in climate change and the coming battles over water. When its all added up I think that "problems are coming" just doesn't express.

This stuff is going to get a LOT worse. I would love to add "until it gets better", but.......................


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