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#327976 - 08/14/20 05:15 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: perotista]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 17429
I will never agree that the impeachment was a waste of time, energy and money. As a prosecutor, I only looked at whether the evidence established the charge, not whether it could be won. Sometimes one has to take a dog of a case to trial, even when you know you will likely lose. I think the failed impeachment demonstrated the absolute obeisance of the Senate to Trump, as everyone was perfectly aware he was guilty. He was, and is, guilty of so much more. And, I believe that the impeachment may be largely responsible for his standing now. Yes, the COVID crisis has emphasized his incompetence and corruption, but the hearings, charges and joke of a Senate mistrial, I think, has forever tarnished the Republican Senators - with the exception of Romney. I think the peril Republicans have in the Senate is a direct result of the failed impeachment.

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#327978 - 08/14/20 01:21 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 846
Politics to include impeachment is all about perceptions of the people that they have for the candidates, the political parties and the president. Impeachment is a political process, not necessarily a legal one in the sense we see with a judge and jury trial. There's no doubt that every Democrat and every Republican had their minds made up prior to any vote from the initial House opening investigation to the trials end. The results were never in doubt.

Tarnished Republican Senators, no. Impeachment is ancient history. It will go down in the history books as a footnote, an asterisk next to Trump's name just like Bill Clinton's. Impeachment has nothing to do with Trump's standing for this election, it isn't even an issue. It's long forgotten by the average American except for folks on sites like this one.

Right now it is the Pandemic and Trump's obnoxious personality and his childish antics, his very unpresidential behavior that are the driving force for the upcoming election. That could change, but I doubt it. In the end it will come down to how independents view Trump, their perception of him more so than their perception of Biden or anything else.

Right now averaging all the polls available on RCP, independents are relative divided between Biden and Trump. Biden 40%, Trump 38%, other 10% undecided, not sure 12%. That's close. But close is okay, the Democratic Party is still the larger of the two major parties and as long as they keep the independent vote close, they win. The Republicans must win the independent vote or lose the election. They probably need to win independents by around 5-6 points to even things out. Remember Trump won independents by 4 points in 2016 and still lost the popular vote by 2. Obama in 2012 lost the independent vote by 3 points and still won by 4. Having the larger party is a great advantage.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#327980 - 08/14/20 04:25 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 17429
You misapprehend my point, my friend, for which I take responsibility. Impeachment was the incident that began the erosion. The pandemic is the flood, but the impeachment was the breach in the dikes that allowed the flood waters to stream through.

Impeachment was the moment people began to pay attention to the behavior of the President and, more importantly, their legislators. The pandemic arrived in time to keep the focus on their behavior. Republicans at all levels are being viewed with disfavor through the lens of Trumpism because they have kowtowed to Trump and his views, and they are being judged for how incompetent they all are.

Yes, there are still loyal sycophants like Noem and DeSantis and Kemp, but they are being viewed with a new perspective. After the Sturgis debacle takes root in other communities the wave will become a tsunami. I don't know how long it will last, but the damage to the GOP will be intense.

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#327981 - 08/14/20 04:52 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: NW Ponderer]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 846
I think folks have paid attention to Trump's childish antics, his unpresidential behavior since he first took office. I really think a lot of folks thought Trump would change. His schoolyard bullying, name calling, feuds, etc during the campaign was just that, a campaign tactic.

The midterms in 2018 I think proved folks had recognized the true nature of Trump's personality. The midterms were a show of displeasure of Trump more than an appreciation of the congressional Democrats. This election is a continuation of that. More about getting rid of the man-child than electing Democrats. I doubt when the Democrats win they will recognize this.

The disapproval of both major parties is still very high. They dislike the GOP more than the Democratic Party at the moment, probably because of Trump. Tread carefully here, just because they dislike one party more than the other doesn't mean they like the other either.

Looking at the recent wave elections, 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018 none of them was because most Americans liked or wanted the out of power party, they were just very dissatisfied and even angry at the party in power. You have to go back to 1948 for the last wave election prior to 1994. So historically, wave elections don't take place very often. at least they used not to. To have 4 in 12 years and 5 in 24 is highly unusual. Then again, these wave election may reflect the increase in the number, percentage of independents and the shrinking of both major parties as people are becoming more and more annoyed with them. If annoyed is the right word.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#327984 - 08/14/20 07:41 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: NW Ponderer]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17282
Loc: Florida
Quote:
Impeachment was the moment people began to pay attention


There's some truth to that. It takes a lot to get "people" to actually pay attention to politics at all, except for the punch lines on late night tv.

I'm obsessed with politics. It's a dark game played with real lives. It's real children that are starving while the aristocrats enjoy luxuries beyond our imagination. Like dragons sitting on their hoard of wealth they think nothing of the scorched countryside and the bleached bones.

The Will of The People is broken. It's beyond their control, like the weather. Voting is a meaningless gesture when a candidate wins by Three Million votes but loses the election.

Millions upon millions will sit home November 3rd because they literally don't give a f*ck.

Impeachment was a spectacle. It turned heads, most didn't understand it because they didn't know the rules. But they knew there would be winners and losers so the game was on. He got impeached...but it meant nothing and changed nothing.

Trump won. Boring.

Election coming up...Biden vs Trump...again it's a competition so everybody kind of watches the race but doesn't really care who wins.

Like slaves before the whip, they have little time or attention to spare for their bosses fighting in luxurious offices over their rations of gruel. They no longer have hope they will thrive or prosper and struggle only to survive.

This is where we find ourselves.

And the obeisance of the Republican Party to the fat lazy fraud is astounding. That there is even a debatable chance he might win this upcoming election is more than I can fathom.
_________________________
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

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#327985 - 08/14/20 08:49 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 846
Just received this from Gallup.

"25% in U.S. Say Neither Candidate Would Be a Good President"

https://news.gallup.com/poll/317474/say-...ign=syndication

The problem is Gallup didn't include independents like they did in 2016. Here's the 2016 one if you want to compare.

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-...candidates.aspx

They're a bit different. 2016 was about likes and dislikes, 2020 is about being a good president or not. Interesting nonetheless.

Beware, I have found this site full of democrats and one lone wolf, non-partisan swing voter. Don't assume the opinions of just Democrats are the opinions of all Americans. Their perceptions of events and candidates can be completely the opposite of those who belong and adhere to the philosophies of each major party.

Actually it fascinates me, it's very interesting to get your view points in a very friendly manner. I've learned some and hope some of what I passed on might give you an insight that politics is all about impressions and perspectives. Especially among the less to non-partisans who we call independents who now make up 40% of the electorate.

This place is addictive.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#327989 - 08/15/20 02:02 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: perotista]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17282
Loc: Florida
Quote:
"25% in U.S. Say Neither Candidate Would Be a Good President"

And they would be right. We have sufficient proof that Trump is a terrible president. Biden might be the best guy for the job right now because he's just a placeholder with no chance of a second term. I don't think Biden will be a bad president...I just don't think he will be a good one.

Quote:
This place is addictive.


It's a shame more haven't stuck around. We don't have an admin anymore so we can't accept any new members and I'm not going to do it. Three in a row died and the last one went crazy.
_________________________
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

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#327991 - 08/15/20 05:41 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: perotista]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 10355
Loc: North San Diego County
Quote:
Tarnished Republican Senators, no.


Well, we'll see in about 81 days if Republican Senators are tarnished or not. Considering their behavior supporting Trump at his worst and the current polls about Senate races, I think they are more than tarnished. I think I can smell the corruption from the West coast.

Mitch seems to think they are above the law, just like Trump. I doubt many are going to vote for Biden but vote to keep their craven Republican senator. Even Susan Collins is in trouble, and she poses as a fair-minded and reasonable independent agent.

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#327996 - 08/15/20 12:36 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Greger]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 846
Originally Posted By: Greger
Quote:
"25% in U.S. Say Neither Candidate Would Be a Good President"

And they would be right. We have sufficient proof that Trump is a terrible president. Biden might be the best guy for the job right now because he's just a placeholder with no chance of a second term. I don't think Biden will be a bad president...I just don't think he will be a good one.

Quote:
This place is addictive.


It's a shame more haven't stuck around. We don't have an admin anymore so we can't accept any new members and I'm not going to do it. Three in a row died and the last one went crazy.

I think after Trump, a caretaker or a place holder is exactly what most Americans want. Someone to bring sanity and normalcy back to the country and having a president who will actually act like a president instead of a WWE wrestler in a pre-fight interview to the white house.

I don't think at least for the first couple of years most Americans want a ton of new programs. They just want a chance to get back into their comfort zone which Trump took them out of. Not by his programs or policies, but by his unruly and very distasteful behavior. By his childish antics of throwing temper tantrums, calling other names, being the third grade schoolyard bully.

Pushing a bunch of new programs through in the first two years would be a bad political mistake in my opinion. The country as a whole isn't ready for that. This election so far has been all about getting rid of Trump, not electing Biden or Democrats. But I fear the Democrats, especially in congress won't see it that way, they'll take it as a mandate for a host of new Democratic programs and not as an election to get rid of Trump and company. If the Dems don't pay heed, another 2010 will be the most likely outcome for 2022.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

Top
#327997 - 08/15/20 12:50 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: pondering_it_all]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 846
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
Quote:
Tarnished Republican Senators, no.


Well, we'll see in about 81 days if Republican Senators are tarnished or not. Considering their behavior supporting Trump at his worst and the current polls about Senate races, I think they are more than tarnished. I think I can smell the corruption from the West coast.

Mitch seems to think they are above the law, just like Trump. I doubt many are going to vote for Biden but vote to keep their craven Republican senator. Even Susan Collins is in trouble, and she poses as a fair-minded and reasonable independent agent.


as of today, I see Alabama returning to the Republicans. Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa going to the democrats. Keep an eye on both Georgia's senate races, a good possibility for those to switch also. Montana which looked like a Democratic pickup 3 weeks ago doesn't anymore. Montana will stay red.

It's not that their impeachment vote tarnished these senators, except in Colorado and possibly Maine. They voted their constituents or the majority of the people in their states wishes which was not guilty. It's basically that they want to be rid of Trump and anyone associated with him.

Presidential election years are all about the president or the candidates at the top, midterms become about senators and congressmen. A good presidential candidate can have coat tails which brings in a bunch of new congress critters that normally would have lost. The reverse is also true, a presidential candidate that the people want to get rid of has reverse coat tails and takes down a bunch of congress critters of his own party that in a non-presidential election, they wouldn't have lost.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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