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#321802 - 02/22/20 05:40 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 10347
Loc: North San Diego County
I think it was shyte to begin with. But nobody noticed until Trump touched it. He seems to have a nose for such things.

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#321842 - 02/22/20 10:10 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
chunkstyle Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 2356


Democratic Party: ‘what happens in Nevada stays in Nevada’

So I guess they don’t want another voting mishap like Iowa.
If I was to guess, they don’t want precinct captains posting their caucus results online when the numbers are different than the state numbers?

Just one possibility of many, unfortunately.

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#321929 - 02/25/20 05:20 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
pondering_it_all Offline
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Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 10347
Loc: North San Diego County
Actually, I'm beginning to wonder if it's so smart to vote for Bernie. I'm a Democrat, so "Socialist" or any of it's variations don't scare me. Most Democrats feel that way. But what about Independents? I've looked at some poll numbers and turns out Independents don't feel that way at all.

Quote:
It won’t surprise you to hear that Democrats are far more willing than independents to support a socialist candidate. But you might be surprised by how much bigger the partisan gap is for a socialist than for other kinds of candidates. In a Gallup poll taken last month, Democrats didn’t differ much from independents in their stated willingness to vote for a black, female, gay, or atheist presidential nominee. For a Muslim nominee, the gap was more then 30 net percentage points. For a socialist, it was more than 60 points. Three-quarters of Democrats were willing to vote for a socialist. Most independents—and, consequently, most of the Gallup respondents—weren’t.


The Great Socialism Gap

The 2016 election had a slight edge for Democrats, but it's a lot more complex than "more Democrats than Republicans". 30-40% are actually Independents and Democrats can't win without them. If they are freaked out by socialism, Democrats will lose. And I have a distinct feeling that when Bernie is crowned as Democratic nominee, the Republicans (and the Russians) are going to make sure every Independent in America thinks he's a communist.

The real question will be: Will Independents vote for a communist or a crook? Because that's how each side will be portraying the other by November.

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#321931 - 02/25/20 01:24 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: pondering_it_all]
chunkstyle Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 2356
My gut reaction is not taking to much from a poll trying to predict what will be this far out.
There’s not much evidence they’ve been right.
Also, centrist Dem insider candidates typically lose in presidential election. Electability is another con in a pragmatic wrapper.
Carter, Clinton we’re outsiders with a whiff of populism.
Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry ran as establishment picks that wouldn’t offend Republican sensibilities. Ditto now very rich HRC.

There’s a lot of hand wringing by the establishment these days to slow Sanders roll. Get ready to watch them latch on to any evidence of his ‘unelectabity’ as he continues to grow his base and rallies.

Apparently, Blue no matter who has a lot of asterisk and fine print.


Edited by chunkstyle (02/25/20 01:28 PM)

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#321936 - 02/25/20 06:15 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
Greger Online   content


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17277
Loc: Florida
Quote:
Blue no matter who has a lot of asterisk and fine print.


Among the punditry perhaps...but among the voters not so much. Trump hatred will overpower socialism fears when it comes down to brass tacks.

Polling seems to indicate that independents are predominantly right leaners. I suspect this is false or misleading at best. Perotista and I need to talk about this.

My issue with poll results are primarily that all polls are taken among people willing to take polls. And my theorem is that people who take polls skew older and more conservative. That's why Biden has ruled the national polls for months. That's why Bernie got stuck in the polls earlier in the race.

Now that the official polling has begun the numbers are changing. Skewing left of earlier polls as younger less conservative voters(who typically don't take polls) are making their voices heard.

Primary voters tend to skew older and more conservative as well, but something has gone wrong with the plan...Voters are feeling the Bern a lot more than people who take polls.

This feeds into my belief that independents are farther left than most imagine, and that Bernie has a massive following among independent millenials who are only going to vote if Bernie is the candidate. Once in the voting booth they will vote a straight blue ticket and help out the down ballot candidates. Bernie will pull more Z-Gen voters off the couch too.

That's how we take the Senate with Bernie! By getting voters out to vote who wouldn't otherwise. It's a vast pool to draw from.......
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#321938 - 02/25/20 06:38 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Greger]
Hamish Howl Offline
journeyman

Registered: 11/21/19
Posts: 608
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Originally Posted By: Greger

Primary voters tend to skew older and more conservative as well, but something has gone wrong with the plan...Voters are feeling the Bern a lot more than people who take polls.


It's only to be expected, with Trump jabbering about slashing SSI and Medicare.
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#321939 - 02/25/20 06:38 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
Hamish Howl Offline
journeyman

Registered: 11/21/19
Posts: 608
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Originally Posted By: chunkstyle

Apparently, Blue no matter who has a lot of asterisk and fine print.


Of course it does. Would you vote blue if Bloomberg or Biden won the primary?
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#321964 - 02/26/20 07:35 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Hamish Howl]
chunkstyle Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 2356
No. I never argued that self serving party B.S.

Now that there’s a clear unifying candidate that polls best head to head with Trump were also seeing the phonyness of the ‘I don’t care who wins the nomination as long as we beat Trump’ crowd.

Clearly, over the events of the last week, with millionaire media hacks and party leadership, that was all B.S. too.

Makes you wonder what the Democratic Party is all about or has become.


Edited by chunkstyle (02/26/20 07:35 AM)

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#321972 - 02/26/20 02:01 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
Hamish Howl Offline
journeyman

Registered: 11/21/19
Posts: 608
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Originally Posted By: chunkstyle
No. I never argued that self serving party B.S.


See, I'm voting against Trump. It would be nice to have a socialist or socialist democratic candidate, but in the end, I am voting against Trump. Doesn't matter who they nominate.

ETA: Except Gabbard, because she's just Trump with better fashion sense.


Edited by Hamish Howl (02/26/20 02:01 PM)
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#321977 - 02/26/20 03:58 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Hamish Howl]
chunkstyle Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 2356
Anyone but Trump. Sure.

Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be a winning play.

It wasn’t in 2016 when Democrats wanted him as an opponent in the general.
It’s obvious who would beat him now.

Yet here we are, with the party in full freak out mode to stop the guy.

The DNC helped bring you Trump. The DNC is working to keep Trump.







Edited by chunkstyle (02/26/20 03:59 PM)

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