Democratic Party: ‘what happens in Nevada stays in Nevada’
So I guess they don’t want another voting mishap like Iowa. If I was to guess, they don’t want precinct captains posting their caucus results online when the numbers are different than the state numbers?
Loc: North San Diego County
Actually, I'm beginning to wonder if it's so smart to vote for Bernie. I'm a Democrat, so "Socialist" or any of it's variations don't scare me. Most Democrats feel that way. But what about Independents? I've looked at some poll numbers and turns out Independents don't feel that way at all.
It won’t surprise you to hear that Democrats are far more willing than independents to support a socialist candidate. But you might be surprised by how much bigger the partisan gap is for a socialist than for other kinds of candidates. In a Gallup poll taken last month, Democrats didn’t differ much from independents in their stated willingness to vote for a black, female, gay, or atheist presidential nominee. For a Muslim nominee, the gap was more then 30 net percentage points. For a socialist, it was more than 60 points. Three-quarters of Democrats were willing to vote for a socialist. Most independents—and, consequently, most of the Gallup respondents—weren’t.
The 2016 election had a slight edge for Democrats, but it's a lot more complex than "more Democrats than Republicans". 30-40% are actually Independents and Democrats can't win without them. If they are freaked out by socialism, Democrats will lose. And I have a distinct feeling that when Bernie is crowned as Democratic nominee, the Republicans (and the Russians) are going to make sure every Independent in America thinks he's a communist.
The real question will be: Will Independents vote for a communist or a crook? Because that's how each side will be portraying the other by November.
My gut reaction is not taking to much from a poll trying to predict what will be this far out. There’s not much evidence they’ve been right. Also, centrist Dem insider candidates typically lose in presidential election. Electability is another con in a pragmatic wrapper. Carter, Clinton we’re outsiders with a whiff of populism. Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry ran as establishment picks that wouldn’t offend Republican sensibilities. Ditto now very rich HRC.
There’s a lot of hand wringing by the establishment these days to slow Sanders roll. Get ready to watch them latch on to any evidence of his ‘unelectabity’ as he continues to grow his base and rallies.
Apparently, Blue no matter who has a lot of asterisk and fine print.
Blue no matter who has a lot of asterisk and fine print.
Among the punditry perhaps...but among the voters not so much. Trump hatred will overpower socialism fears when it comes down to brass tacks.
Polling seems to indicate that independents are predominantly right leaners. I suspect this is false or misleading at best. Perotista and I need to talk about this.
My issue with poll results are primarily that all polls are taken among people willing to take polls. And my theorem is that people who take polls skew older and more conservative. That's why Biden has ruled the national polls for months. That's why Bernie got stuck in the polls earlier in the race.
Now that the official polling has begun the numbers are changing. Skewing left of earlier polls as younger less conservative voters(who typically don't take polls) are making their voices heard.
Primary voters tend to skew older and more conservative as well, but something has gone wrong with the plan...Voters are feeling the Bern a lot more than people who take polls.
This feeds into my belief that independents are farther left than most imagine, and that Bernie has a massive following among independent millenials who are only going to vote if Bernie is the candidate. Once in the voting booth they will vote a straight blue ticket and help out the down ballot candidates. Bernie will pull more Z-Gen voters off the couch too.
That's how we take the Senate with Bernie! By getting voters out to vote who wouldn't otherwise. It's a vast pool to draw from.......
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...