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#322508 - 03/06/20 01:51 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Greger]
chunkstyle Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 2356
Originally Posted By: Greger


It won't matter much since both are toast as far as this election is concerned. Biden appears to be the shoo-in at this point. Were there shenanigans? I think so...


There has been shenanigans since the beginning of the primary starting in Iowa. It looks like the same unaccountable discrepancies between final vote totals reported being outside the margin of error of exit polls are happening now as they did in 2016.
States having paper ballot back were reported not having the same discrepancies as the exit polls.:

“Presidential candidates Biden’s and Bloomberg’s vote counts exhibited the largest disparity from their exit poll projections. Biden’s unobservable computer-generated vote totals represented a 15.7% increase of his projected exit poll share. Given the 1,342,905 voters in this election, he gained approximately 60,900 more votes than projected by the exit poll. Bloomberg increased his vote share by 28.2% and approximately 34,500 more votes than projected. Their gain came largely at the expense of candidates Sanders and Warren whose combined vote counts were 97,000 less than projected by the exit poll.[i]

Noteworthy is the fact that the 2016 Massachusetts Republican Party exit poll taken at the same time and at the same precincts as the Democratic Party primary, and also with a crowded field of five candidates, was matched almost perfectly by the computer count—varying by less than one percent for each candidate.”

MASSACHUSETTS 2020 DEMOCRATIC PARTY PRIMARY Exit Poll Versus Reported Vote Count

No one was interested then, I doubt they will be any more now.

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#322510 - 03/06/20 04:03 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
chunkstyle Offline
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Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 2356
Biden’s life long political underwriters would be the very targets for Warren. Can’t see her getting anywhere near financial regulation should Biden somehow become president.

I saw a Biden tweet earlier expressing how great she was as a candidate and he’ll need her in the Senate to continue her good work.

Early to draw any conclusion from it.

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#322512 - 03/06/20 05:13 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
chunkstyle Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 2356
And in 2016:

“For the numbers I can find (nearly all of them) on the GOP side for the same states, the overall bias is virtually nil, with most results getting the margin between first and second place in each contest right within a percentage or two. In 17 of the 25 contests on the Dem side, the exit polling miss on the marginal difference was 3.5% or more; this has happened just four times on the GOP side. On the GOP side, the misses of 3.5% or more were distributed across candidates. On the Dem side, 16 of 17 were in Clinton’s favor. For 9 of the 25 contests, the polling miss was 7.0% or greater, all in Clinton’s favor. This happened just once for Republicans (Texas).”

2016 primary elections fraud allegations

I’m of the opinion that the party just did a multi state Iowa on Super Tuesday.
The Massachusetts point swing was absurd. The exit polling discrepancy errors should
be randomly distributed. As we watched in Iowa, they keep disadvantaging in one direction. Just as they did in the 2016 primary but not the GOP’s.

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#322513 - 03/06/20 07:27 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
pondering_it_all Offline
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Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 10004
Loc: North San Diego County
Or maybe Biden voters are not as enthusiastic as Sanders voters, so they don't want to tell exit poll people how they voted. I think you are grasping at straws here. Actual vote tallies are 100 times as credible as exit polls. There is so much transparency in reporting tallies that any number rigging would be obvious to too many people for it to be kept a secret. This is a very important factor in any conspiracy theory: How many people would it take to pull this off? Would that many people actually keep it a secret for x number of years?

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#322514 - 03/06/20 07:38 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: olyve]
pondering_it_all Offline
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Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 10004
Loc: North San Diego County
Great to see you back here, olyve! Please hang around. It's a sausage fest around here! We need more input from women.

Sad that Warren had to fold. She was probably the most qualified candidate, but after 2016 I'm convinced that women are a female candidate's worst enemy. If women really wanted a female President they could have voted for Clinton, but they didn't. Most White women actually preferred a rapist over a woman. Sad.

That's actually why I voted for Sanders instead of Warren. I would prefer a progressive, but I guess there are just too many Democrats scared of the Socialist label.

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#322519 - 03/06/20 11:15 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: pondering_it_all]
chunkstyle Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 2356
It is obvious to many people. Iowa was obvious to many people. Iowa had to change their vote totals after the outrage. Exit polling was the most accurate polling until recently.
The results are in and the errors keep happening in one direction.

Your Biden voters acting coy about their vote with the exit pollsters is absurd.

People in the DNC and Clinton campaigns conspiratorial illiberal and illegal behavior was exposed. The Podesta emails were published though liberals were loath to talk about it at the time. They, instead, spent 3 years hyperventilating about Russian meddling without saying a word about what those hacked emails revealed.


I think your being reliably obtuse, PIA.



Edited by chunkstyle (03/06/20 11:15 AM)

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#322521 - 03/06/20 01:35 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
Ujest Shurly Offline
journeyman

Registered: 10/16/16
Posts: 643
Loc: Sterling Heights, MI, USA
Or maybe the difference is from absentee voters, kind of hard to exit pole them...
_________________________
Vote 2020!

Life is like a PB&J sandwich. The older you get, the moldery and crustier you get.

Now, get off my grass!

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#322522 - 03/06/20 01:51 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
logtroll Offline
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Registered: 04/26/10
Posts: 10253
Loc: One of the Mexicos
It's a good thing the stock market had gotten so high, so there's room to fall a long ways before hitting bottom. Who knew that Trump's economy was so fragile? Not even Big Government bandaids like tax cuts or practically zero interest rates seem to have much effect. I guess he's toast for a second term, even a moldy ham sandwich could beat him in November.
_________________________
“You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.”
– R. Buckminster Fuller

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#322523 - 03/06/20 02:12 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
Ujest Shurly Offline
journeyman

Registered: 10/16/16
Posts: 643
Loc: Sterling Heights, MI, USA
Well, on to the next phase of who will be...

Since we will have a nominee in their late seventies, we will also be voting for their possible successor. My wife and I were talking about this and here is a shortlist of possibles and a few reasons pro or con.


Warren - Holds a seat in the Senate, can do more damage in the Senate, in her seventies herself

Kamala Harris - Holds a seat in the Senate, can do the job, needs more political seasoning, would bring in more black voters

Amy Klobuchar - Holds a seat in the Senate, no excitement, feels like Hubert Humphrey, record as a prosecutor

Cory Boker - Holds a seat in the Senate, no excitement, would bring more black voters

Barack Obama - 22nd amendment

Pete Buttigieg - young, needs more seasoning, should have held a governorship, though many like him, this country will elect a female President before it does an LGBTQ President (a shame I would vote for him)

Then we thought of

Michelle Obama - generates excitement, would give Trumpiaens and Republicans apoplexy, would bring the black vote and more women of all colors

Beto O'Rouke - Texas native son, strong Hispanic support, does not hold a seat in the Senate

Just a short list.

So who do you think could be a running mate this election.


Edited by Ujest Shurly (03/06/20 02:15 PM)
_________________________
Vote 2020!

Life is like a PB&J sandwich. The older you get, the moldery and crustier you get.

Now, get off my grass!

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#322524 - 03/06/20 02:28 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Ujest Shurly]
chunkstyle Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 2356
couple of problems with that.

The media created narrative is Joe getting the bump out of South Carolina that helped propel his victory in Mass.
He wasn’t not polling well prior to Tuesday. If his stunning upset there can be attributed with early voting wouldn’t previous polling reflect that or are Biden supporters adept peekaboo polling artists?

Hardly any advertising.
Got his arse handed to him in neighboring New Hampshire just prior.
The errors in exit polling should’ve been randomly distributed. They were not.
They were in the Republican primary of 2016. They were not in the Democratic primary.

I was on the texting Berner. Of the respondence that texted back Biden was nearly non-existant. More responses for Warren and Bernie support than anywhere else. My anecdotal observations of text response support mirrored polling reports.
He had no organization in Mass prior to Tuesday.


Risks of computer vote hacking have been widely reported on before the primary even began. Those warnings went largely ignored. Dubious Russian meddling was sold to the public instead. It’s why I my immediate response I posted here was something ain’t right in Mass.

My take away is if there is no paper back up and it can be rigged it will. Two much money is on the line for the status quo not to do it and they’ve been exposed already in doing so in 2016. Russia took the air out of the room to focus on those issues as it was intended to do, IMO.

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