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#322669 - 03/09/20 06:34 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 603
Here's how Sanders did in the primary states on tap tomorrow against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Let's see how he does against Biden.

10 Mar 2016 2020
Idaho 78%
Michigan 48%
Missouri 49%
Mississippi 17%
North Dakota 64%
Washington 73%

If the polls are accurate, Sanders had a 20 point lead in Washington State a week ago, they now show a tie. Sanders was behind Biden in Missouri by 11, they show Biden has increased his lead to 20 points. Where Sanders was up by 11 in Michigan a week ago, it's Biden by 20 today. Of course the only poll that counts is to be taken tomorrow. No polling on Idaho, Mississippi or North Dakota.
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It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#322720 - 03/11/20 08:13 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 9855
Loc: North San Diego County
It looks like Biden wins in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri. Still a toss-up in Washington state: They are counting mail-in ballots. Clear win for Sanders in North Dakota. (Really? North Dakota?)

Biden 153 to Sanders 89 delegates on March 10.

Total now is Biden 823 to Sanders 663. If you count Pete and Mike's delegates for Biden, and Liz's delegates for Sanders it gets even worse for Sanders. I still think Biden is going to walk into the convention with > 50% and win on the first ballot. (Delegates for candidates who have dropped out become free agents, and can vote as they please at the first ballot of the convention.)

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#322721 - 03/11/20 11:20 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: pondering_it_all]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 603
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
It looks like Biden wins in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri. Still a toss-up in Washington state: They are counting mail-in ballots. Clear win for Sanders in North Dakota. (Really? North Dakota?)

Biden 153 to Sanders 89 delegates on March 10.

Total now is Biden 823 to Sanders 663. If you count Pete and Mike's delegates for Biden, and Liz's delegates for Sanders it gets even worse for Sanders. I still think Biden is going to walk into the convention with > 50% and win on the first ballot. (Delegates for candidates who have dropped out become free agents, and can vote as they please at the first ballot of the convention.)



Agreed, the upcoming primaries in Ohio, Illinois, Florida, Arizona, then a week after, Georgia are all in Biden friendly territory. Sanders strength was in the very progressive west coast. Biden's in the more moderate to conservative south and Midwest. Flyover country.

As a numbers guy, I find it very interesting that on 4 Mar Sanders had a 20 point lead in Washington and an 11 point lead in Michigan. He lost both leads for whatever reason.

Larry Sabato in his Crystal Ball Report had an interesting point why Sanders is doing much worst in 2020 than in 2016. That being sanders received a lot of anti Clinton support in 2016. Biden isn't Hillary and he is more liked by democrats as a whole. Possible.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#322727 - 03/11/20 05:36 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3251
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
Well, apparently Bernie is looking forward to a 'debate' with Biden to settle it all. This is really important given that Bernie no longer, according to everybody, has a path to winning. I think what this means is that we are going to be entertained with yet another Democratic food fight in their ongoing effort to make sure they don't beat Trump.

Just gotta wonder - again.................

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#322732 - 03/11/20 06:47 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 9855
Loc: North San Diego County
Why should Biden agree to such a debate?

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#322733 - 03/11/20 06:49 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: jgw]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 16862
Loc: Florida
You imagine that a bumbling, uncertain, and unpopular candidate like Biden will be able to beat Trump?

The way Bernie's supporters have been maligned and insulted over the course of the primaries, do you imagine they will just "vote blue"?

Young voters didn't even come out for Bernie this time, they certainly aren't going to come out and vote for Biden.

Biden has shown himself to be weak under pressure, Trump will apply pressure in copious amounts. We knew that this race would depend on turnout, democrats as always, feel that everyone is going to come out and vote for anybody with a D beside his name.

After four more years of Trump "socialism" is gonna start looking pretty good...
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#322734 - 03/11/20 06:52 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: pondering_it_all]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 16862
Loc: Florida
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
Why should Biden agree to such a debate?


Yeah, the race is over and Bernie's grasping at straws. Trump vs Biden is about the only thing left to talk about in this thread.
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#322742 - 03/12/20 01:01 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 603
Biden has taken the lead in Washington State with 76% of the votes counted.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/washington?xid=ec_flip_hz_washington_d

The outlook for the 17 Mar primaries doesn't look good. If Sanders is having problems winning a very progressive state like Washington, I wouldn't expect too much in the more moderate to conservative states of the south and midwest. What you refer to as flyover country.


As of 11 Mar for the primaries on 17 Mar
Florida - Biden by 36
Ohio - Biden by 18
Illinois - Biden by 22
Arizona - Biden by 19

then on 24 Mar

Georgia - Biden by 33
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#322751 - 03/12/20 03:51 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Greger]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 17388
Originally Posted By: Greger
You imagine that a bumbling, uncertain, and unpopular candidate like Biden will be able to beat Trump?
According to polling by YouGov, Biden is the fifth most popular Democrat.

Quote:
Young voters didn't even come out for Bernie this time, they certainly aren't going to come out and vote for Biden.
But apparently they are. "It's true that the raw number of young voters may be up in some states, particularly those where total turnout has gone up." It's also true that they are a smaller percentage of the electorate, because more Democrats, in general, have shown up.

Quote:
Biden has shown himself to be weak under pressure, Trump will apply pressure in copious amounts. We knew that this race would depend on turnout, democrats as always, feel that everyone is going to come out and vote for anybody with a D beside his name.
Apparently your perception is not widely shared. Here Are The Voters Who Powered Biden To His 'Big Tuesday' Wins (NPR)
Quote:
Biden came out ahead of Sanders on the question of who would be better in a crisis.

About half of Michigan voters said they thought Biden was best equipped to handle a crisis, compared to about 31% who sided with Sanders. In Missouri, Biden edged Sanders 61% to 26% on the question.


I agree with you, and Bernie, by the way
Quote:
"Today, I say to the Democratic establishment, in order to win in the future, you need to win the voters who represent the future of our country," Sanders said. "And you must speak to the issues of concern to them."
Biden needs to do that. But, I think, ultimately, the Democratic nominee (likely Biden) will have the wind at his back, because Trump is so toxic and inept. Biden may not be exciting, but he's known, and that's something the electorate clearly wants.

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#322755 - 03/12/20 05:35 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3251
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
The problem with Bernie remains exactly the same. Bernie does not give a single inch. He has stuck by his views for over 30 years and has not strayed even a bit. This is the reason, for instance, that he has such a poor record of getting legislation passed. There is no reason to believe anything would change should he become president except that he would be on TV more often.

Oh, and Saturday, I think, we will get to watch the Biden/Bernie food fight with, I suspect, Bernie REALLY having at Biden (who he also claim to be willing to support should Biden get the nomination) and after Bernie proves, during the 'debate', that Bernie is the scum of the earth, against all he (Bernie) believes, and hates the poor, sick, infirm, young, etc. So, if Biden does become the Democratic candidate, Bernie will have created quite a mountain to climb if he actually does 'support' Biden. I, for one, can't wait to see that!


Edited by jgw (03/12/20 05:39 PM)

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