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#315113 - 09/09/19 12:03 AM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: pondering_it_all]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 595
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
That analysis ignores who the Third Party candidate is: A popular leftist Third Party candidate would indeed take votes from the Democrat and help elect the Republican. Likewise, a popular right wing candidate would take votes from the Republican and help elect the Democrat. In general, a Third Party candidate can only help elect the mainstream candidate the least like them. This is why people say Third Party runs can only hurt their cause.

It would be completely different if we had a parliamentary form of government, where a Third Party could form a coalition with the mainstream Party most like them, But we don't.


I say you're correct in your synopsis. The reason I stated third party candidates usually hurt Republicans more is that the Libertarians are on the ballot in all 50 states presidential wise. They also run candidates for governors and senators. Most Libertarians would vote Republican if limited to just the GOP and Democratic candidates.

Johnson received 3.28% of the total vote in 2016, Jill Stein 1.07%, McMullin 0.54%. Libertarian and Conservative votes to Johnson and McMullin dwarf Stein's. My word usually doesn't mean every time, just most of the time.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#315124 - 09/09/19 03:45 AM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline
It's the Despair Quotient!
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 15728
Loc: Whittier, California
By the way, Perostista...Northwest Ponderer is NWRatCon on DP, in case you didn't know.
_________________________
"The Best of the Leon Russell Festivals" DVD
deepfreezefilms.com

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#315363 - 09/15/19 02:16 AM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline
It's the Despair Quotient!
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 15728
Loc: Whittier, California
Too many on the Left sat home and sulked, too many Dems sat home, thinking we already had it in the bag, and that left mostly people who have been conditioned to not trust our institutions, not trust any form of government or even trust what they see and hear in the media....i.e. acting like the lady who stayed on the toilet for two years.

Basically by sitting home and sulking, or believing we had it in the bag, we let the idiots on the right make our choices for us.
But by being complacent, or acting like spoiled brats, we were the bigger idiots, bigger because we ought to have known better.

I sincerely hope that this four year long Trump bukkake party will permanently disabuse enough liberals of the idea of staying home and not bothering to vote. If not, then they will get treated to another four year long Trump bukkake session, with some scatological fun thrown in for good measure.
_________________________
"The Best of the Leon Russell Festivals" DVD
deepfreezefilms.com

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#315364 - 09/15/19 03:37 AM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 16845
Loc: Florida
Quote:
I sincerely hope that this four year long Trump bukkake party will permanently disabuse enough liberals of the idea of staying home and not bothering to vote


This time it's personal. Voters want to hurt this guy and they want to hurt him bad. Everybody is going to want to be part of it. Like the Popeye's Chicken sandwich!

Something on my radar is how Trump is gonna play the China agreement into his re-election plan. Early guess is a shoddy agreement that makes him a hero for ending the trade war that he started. He declares it a victory and throws himself a parade. Republicans love him all the more for ending the trade war that THE DEMOCRATS started.....

Anybody imagine a future where that doesn't happen?
_________________________
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

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#315384 - 09/15/19 11:29 AM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Greger]
Ujest Shurly Offline
journeyman

Registered: 10/16/16
Posts: 627
Loc: Sterling Heights, MI, USA
Originally Posted By: Greger
Quote:
I sincerely hope that this four year long Trump bukkake party will permanently disabuse enough liberals of the idea of staying home and not bothering to vote


<snip

Something on my radar is how Trump is gonna play the China agreement into his re-election plan. Early guess is a shoddy agreement that makes him a hero for ending the trade war that he started. He declares it a victory and throws himself a parade. Republicans love him all the more for ending the trade war that THE DEMOCRATS started.....

Anybody imagine a future where that doesn't happen?


Nope, that is how it will be played out, and the Bubbas on the right, better known as Republicans, are going to take it hook, line and shaft.

Bukkake: a type of ... several men ... on another person. ROTFMOL Bow allhail
_________________________
Vote 2020!

Life is like a PB&J sandwich. The older you get, the moldery and crustier you get.

Now, get off my grass!

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#315435 - 09/16/19 01:23 AM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline
It's the Despair Quotient!
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 15728
Loc: Whittier, California
Jill Biden admits her husband's policies SUCK, but please settle for him anyway.
Joe won't even be in the race next March if he's already stumbling this badly at this point.
If he is, God help us.

_________________________
"The Best of the Leon Russell Festivals" DVD
deepfreezefilms.com

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#315451 - 09/16/19 12:49 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
chunkstyle Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 2356
How dare voters stay home and not vote for candidates to screw them over! Donít they understand how politics work?! Well Trump surely showed them their errors. Maybe now voters will fall in line with another corporate hack promising access to the bananas if they can only jump high enough.
Stay at home sulkers should really take a look at themselves in the mirror and reflect on how they, and they alone, have been responsible for the Parties presidential defeat. Clearly some folks donít know whatís good for them. Who the adults in the room are and other patronizing gibberish.


Edited by chunkstyle (09/16/19 12:51 PM)

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#317500 - 10/29/19 07:24 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: chunkstyle]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 16845
Loc: Florida
Quote:
I assume your not for Sanders on account of your recurring 'he's not going to win you know? you know that don't you" hey chunks, Sanders isn't going to win..." Sure. O.K. Why would I want to argue with somebody who's made up their mind? Your entitled to your opinion.


And you to yours. That's what we do here is share our opinions.

I'm not trying to change your mind about Bernie. I'm neither for nor against him, same with Warren. Neither for nor against.

I'm very much against Joe Biden. I see Warren as the only one who has a chance of beating him. I've been wrong before but I'm not afraid to bet on a horse before the race begins. Too early to place a bet? Why?

I've outlined a lot of reasons why I think the race is gonna turn out like I've called it. You've mostly told me your candidate can't win because democrats are corrupt. I think that's a pretty safe bet and it's part of why I think he can't win. You don't like Warren? I'm cool with that, I don't know that I like her either, I'm just saying she's gonna win. We'll see how it turns out once she's in office.

You think Bernie can win? You see a path where I don't?
_________________________
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

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#317502 - 10/29/19 08:53 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3240
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
For those who sulk, and not vote. PLEASE, submit an empty ballot. If you all did that a message would be sent. This is a simple fact and blank ballots are counted. voting is not a right, voting is a responsibility. Not voting does nothing, other than prove, to yourself (and others when you brag on it), that you are not responsible, don't give a damn, and, certainly, part of the problem.

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#317507 - 10/30/19 12:44 AM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Greger]
chunkstyle Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 2356
Originally Posted By: Greger
Quote:
I assume your not for Sanders on account of your recurring 'he's not going to win you know? you know that don't you" hey chunks, Sanders isn't going to win..." Sure. O.K. Why would I want to argue with somebody who's made up their mind? Your entitled to your opinion.


And you to yours. That's what we do here is share our opinions.

I'm not trying to change your mind about Bernie. I'm neither for nor against him, same with Warren. Neither for nor against.

I'm very much against Joe Biden. I see Warren as the only one who has a chance of beating him. I've been wrong before but I'm not afraid to bet on a horse before the race begins. Too early to place a bet? Why?

I've outlined a lot of reasons why I think the race is gonna turn out like I've called it. You've mostly told me your candidate can't win because democrats are corrupt. I think that's a pretty safe bet and it's part of why I think he can't win. You don't like Warren? I'm cool with that, I don't know that I like her either, I'm just saying she's gonna win. We'll see how it turns out once she's in office.

You think Bernie can win? You see a path where I don't?



I never said that Sanders can't win because of DNC corruption, rather it's a very big obstacle. Just as it was last time.

There are differences between 2016 and 2020 though.
It's been said the possibilty is greater and the obstacles are greater than it was in 2016 and I'm agreeing with that sentiment.

First there's the Clinton coalition and it's tactics:
A professional class that used to be republicans of 40 years ago, their political preferences still are. I don't think that group is large enough or energized enough to beat Trump.

If there's more shenanigans like what happened with WFP endorsement Warren is sure to further alienate the left. That showed incredibly poor strategic thinking on her campaigns part. She's already alienating the left.

Then there's the match up between the candidates and Donald Trump. Here the race looks less like a walk for Biden or Warren where Sanders is just barely squeeked out by Biden for the no.2 pole position against Trump. Warrens 3rd.
Trump vs. Dem candidates

So Biden's melting like that proverbial sandcastle. His numbers have been on a downward trajectory. Which candidate is the no.2 choice among Biden leaning voters.
Biden voters pick Sanders

So either Biden supporters are not telling the truth about their second choice pick (a funny thing to be coy about wouldn't you think?) or there's something funny going on with the votes going into Warrens column as Bidens column shrinks. The polls might not be accurate. But hey, when's that ever happened before?

Then there's each candidates respective bases. Let's be honest with who's got the energy. Again. Sanders is crushing it with rallies as much as Trump is. While Warren had a good showing in NYC Sanders was much bigger. People taking time out to show up at a rally could be argued being more accurate than the polls were in 2016. That is, again, being ignored by the corporate press.

Who's Sanders coalition?

There's still a big outsider candidate sentiment and that would be Sanders again. Warren does not sound like an outsider. Her campaign is not run as an outsider. Quite the opposite. I think it would not be smart to ignore that sentiment. He also appears to be mobilizing a working class coalition, the key to most democratic victories is doing just that. It's simple. There's more of em than there are professionals though it's the professionals that insist they know what's best. S'funny that... Democrats have been losing more elections with that strategy than they ever lost with the new deal consensus.
Bartenders for Bernie

I could go on but lemme just finish it by saying it's to early to say it's in the bag.



Edited by chunkstyle (10/30/19 12:47 AM)

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