Current Topics
When police join a community, great things happen
by Greger
01:07 AM
An unexpected cure for COVID-19?
by pondering_it_all
12:36 AM
Burn and Destroy
by perotista
12:36 AM
covid-19 cure
by pondering_it_all
11:06 PM
RoundTable - SPRING 2020
by logtroll
09:59 PM
The Maximum Wage
by logtroll
09:16 PM
First Bernie Sanders Thread 2020
by logtroll
01:23 PM
Is it too soon to be talking 2020?
by perotista
11:38 AM
A Thought Experiment about COVID-19
by pondering_it_all
05:48 AM
The CFO Act
by jgw
06/03/20 07:16 PM
The Far-Right's Civil War aka "boogaloo"
by pondering_it_all
06/03/20 06:18 PM
Anonymous dumps a treasure trove of docs
by Greger
06/02/20 04:47 PM
Edward Snowden Interview
by danarhea
06/01/20 03:45 AM
The Unmasking of Michael Flynn
by Irked
05/31/20 05:30 PM
Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid
by Greger
05/30/20 07:21 PM
Trump may be ahead!
by rporter314
05/29/20 01:29 PM
Is there a free market solution for the pandemic and economic collapse?
by Greger
05/25/20 08:59 PM
Genius: how to make of a surgical mask, an N95-equivalent
by GreatNewsTonight
05/25/20 03:51 AM
The Way We Were
by Jeffery J. Haas
05/25/20 12:46 AM
What's for dinner?
by GreatNewsTonight
05/24/20 08:18 PM
Forum Stats
6292 Members
60 Forums
16922 Topics
300281 Posts

Max Online: 294 @ 12/06/17 12:57 AM
Google Adsense
Page 83 of 129 < 1 2 ... 81 82 83 84 85 ... 128 129 >
Topic Options
Rate This Topic
#322614 - 03/08/20 02:14 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Greger]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 603
Originally Posted By: Greger
Biden and Trump both are for cutting Medicare and Social Security!

Honestly it looks like Trump is doing everything in his power to lose the election and Democrats are trying to force him to win it.


Personal feelings or are numbers in play. As a numbers guy, I'm more interested in independents than Republicans and Democrats. History has shown that on average Republicans and democrats vote for their party's candidate 90% of the time regardless of who that candidate is.

But let's look at swing states, Trump vs. Biden, Trump vs. Sanders. Too early to put much stock in these, but interesting and they might reflect why 66% of democrats think Biden can beat Trump vs 52% that sanders could. I don't have numbers on all swing states, but the one's I do.

Arizona, Biden leading Trump, Trump leading Sanders
Florida, Biden tied with Trump, Trump leading Sanders
Iowa Trump leading both Biden and Sanders
Michigan Both Biden and Sanders leading Trump
Minnesota Both Biden and Sanders leading Trump
Nevada Both Biden and Sanders leading Trump
New Hampshire Trump leading both Biden and Sanders
North Carolina Biden leading Trump, Trump leading Sanders
Ohio Biden leading Trump, Trump leading Sanders
Pennsylvania Both Biden and Sanders leading Trump
Wisconsin Trump leading both Biden and Sanders

As of today, Biden does give the democrats a better chance of winning certain swing states, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio. But the general election campaign hasn't kicked in and there's been no personal attacks. Those could change these dynamics. But in almost every swing state, Biden is doing 2-4 points better against Trump than Sanders is.

The national averages it's Biden 50-44 over Trump, Sanders 48-46 over Trump. As of today, numbers say Biden has the best chance of defeating Trump. Come November, no one knows. Things can change in a hurry as proved pre and post South Carolina.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

Top
#322615 - 03/08/20 03:21 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: perotista]
chunkstyle Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 2356
Things can change on a hurry between exit polling and official reporting.
The party has been engaged in a media narrative since day one and the polling numbers will be used when itís convenient to do so.

But they are transitory especially when it comes to Trump vs. Biden.

Coupla things that will wreck those poll numbers:

Republicans will be hauling Biden into criminal investigations over Burisma. Subpoenas are getting readied. Joes got dirt under his nails here.

He continues to mentally deteriorate on the trail. Debates may prove difficult for him going forward between Sanders or Trump, if he makes it.

Front runner status means his consummate insider record will become an issue regarding trade, equal rights, support for reactionary Supreme Court justices, trying to cut social security, etc..,

All of this and much more makes for a lot of drag on his numbers going forward.
The left has been publicly ratf#cked by the party again. I donít think they will come out this time nor should they. Without that support I doubt his numbers will stand up to Trumps going down the road.


Edited by chunkstyle (03/08/20 03:22 PM)

Top
#322618 - 03/08/20 05:53 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 603
Originally Posted By: chunkstyle
Things can change on a hurry between exit polling and official reporting.
The party has been engaged in a media narrative since day one and the polling numbers will be used when itís convenient to do so.

But they are transitory especially when it comes to Trump vs. Biden.

Coupla things that will wreck those poll numbers:

Republicans will be hauling Biden into criminal investigations over Burisma. Subpoenas are getting readied. Joes got dirt under his nails here.

He continues to mentally deteriorate on the trail. Debates may prove difficult for him going forward between Sanders or Trump, if he makes it.

Front runner status means his consummate insider record will become an issue regarding trade, equal rights, support for reactionary Supreme Court justices, trying to cut social security, etc..,

All of this and much more makes for a lot of drag on his numbers going forward.
The left has been publicly ratf#cked by the party again. I donít think they will come out this time nor should they. Without that support I doubt his numbers will stand up to Trumps going down the road.


Probably true. But I take it you're not worried about Trump and company branding Sanders a socialist? Having many tapes of Sanders himself describing himself as a Democratic Socialist. I'm positive Trump and company will be running those tapes night and day. Will it be successful or not, who knows? But according to Gallup only 45% of independents say they would vote for a socialist. That's throwing half of the independent vote away if Trump and company are successful in branding Sanders as such.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/285563/soci...ign=syndication

I'm not saying those independents who don't like Trump will end up voting for him because of his branding Sanders as a socialist. One must remember 12% of independents voted third party in 2016, against both Trump and Clinton. That number might rise to 20% or higher if the socialist tag sticks. Which it might being the ads displaying Sanders calling himself a democratic socialist.

Is Biden the best candidate to beat Trump of the two remaining, probably in my opinion. But not in the beginning field. I would put Hickenlooper first, then Klobuchar. Both far more attractive to the independent voter. But independents don't decide who will be the Democratic nominee, Democrats do.

It's like 2016, a poll showed in Feb of that year that 56% of all Americans wanted the Democrats to nominate someone other than Hillary Clinton. The Democrats ignored America as a whole which was their right to do so. No doubt about that. But ignoring America as a whole brought about who we have in the White House today.

I'm not a partisan or an ideologue or one who has a favorite candidate. Just a numbers guy who studies who might have the better chance. You might be correct, then again perhaps neither one, Biden nor Sanders is the right candidate to beat Trump. Time will tell. I can only go by the numbers and data in hand today, I have no idea what the numbers will say come November.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

Top
#322644 - 03/09/20 03:26 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 9848
Loc: North San Diego County
And Covid-19 could dramatically change the 2020 election: Any of the three candidates could die. We could wind up with President Pelosi before the election. The Senate could lose members, as could the House. Remember, it's especially lethal to the elderly.

I suspect things will look very different in a month.

Top
#322647 - 03/09/20 03:48 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: pondering_it_all]
Greger Online   content


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 16861
Loc: Florida
Quote:
I suspect things will look very different in a month.


Stock market is liable to go off another cliff tomorrow, too.

Donald Trump is at the helm as we witness the biggest stock market crash in history.

It could be a completely different world in a month.
_________________________
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

Top
#322654 - 03/09/20 05:22 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: pondering_it_all]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline
It's the Despair Quotient!
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 15728
Loc: Whittier, California
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
How about AOC as VP? Unfortunately, she isn't old enough. But next term, President Biden could pick her. She is actually fairly well qualified. Republicans all call her a bartender but she majored in international relations and economics at Boston University, graduating cum laude in 2011.


With a few tweets, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez HAS CHANGED EVERYTHING.

Quote:
If AOC can continue to be that effective a messenger for progressive politics for, say, the next 40 years, imagine what she'll be able to do. I promise you, the right-wing media has and that's why Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has them freaked out so badly.


ROTFMOL

Goddamn the Righties HATE her with a passion.
It is HILARIOUS.
_________________________
"The Best of the Leon Russell Festivals" DVD
deepfreezefilms.com

Top
#322655 - 03/09/20 08:46 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
Ujest Shurly Offline
journeyman

Registered: 10/16/16
Posts: 627
Loc: Sterling Heights, MI, USA
Quote:
If AOC can continue to be that effective a messenger for progressive politics for, say, the next 40 years, imagine what she'll be able to do. I promise you, the right-wing media has and that's why Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has them freaked out so badly.


Would we allow another 30 year assault on another female potential candidate?
_________________________
Vote 2020!

Life is like a PB&J sandwich. The older you get, the moldery and crustier you get.

Now, get off my grass!

Top
#322656 - 03/09/20 12:38 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: pondering_it_all]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 603
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
And Covid-19 could dramatically change the 2020 election: Any of the three candidates could die. We could wind up with President Pelosi before the election. The Senate could lose members, as could the House. Remember, it's especially lethal to the elderly.

I suspect things will look very different in a month.

Very true. Things could look very different on Wednesday,11 Mar if Sanders wins Michigan and Washington State tomorrow.

All it takes to change things 180 degrees is one huge mistake or some major unforeseen event or happening.

Here's the latest delegate count going into tomorrow. Updated by RCP as of this AM.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

And the popular vote totals.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_vote_count.html
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

Top
#322658 - 03/09/20 03:15 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Ujest Shurly]
Hamish Howl Offline
journeyman

Registered: 11/21/19
Posts: 573
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Originally Posted By: Ujest Shurly
Quote:
If AOC can continue to be that effective a messenger for progressive politics for, say, the next 40 years, imagine what she'll be able to do. I promise you, the right-wing media has and that's why Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has them freaked out so badly.


Would we allow another 30 year assault on another female potential candidate?


Well, yeah. The dems lack the cojones to do anything about it.
_________________________
What can we do to help you stop screaming?

Top
#322659 - 03/09/20 03:25 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Ujest Shurly]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 603
Originally Posted By: Ujest Shurly
Quote:
If AOC can continue to be that effective a messenger for progressive politics for, say, the next 40 years, imagine what she'll be able to do. I promise you, the right-wing media has and that's why Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has them freaked out so badly.


Would we allow another 30 year assault on another female potential candidate?


I think it all depends on who the female candidate is. Would Republican women vote for AOC or Democratic women for Nikki Hailey? No they wouldn't. I don't think even independent women would vote for either of them if the other party had a more moderate candidate running.

The R and the D next to a candidates name, regardless of gender take precedence over who the candidate is among the party faithful. History shows that on average 90% of those who affiliate with either party will vote for their party's candidate regardless of who that candidate is.

So it's left to independents to decide. This time around I think independents would have gone for Klobuchar, Baldwin, Duckworth, a Rosen, but not a Warren or an AOC. The democrats themselves decided a big no on Klobuchar. Ideology plays an important fact in determing who the two major parties nominate. This year the democrats themselves chose two old 78 year old's, white, males.

The first female president will be one who can attract independent voters, either center, center left or center right who's opponent is either very far left or far right. Mark my word on it.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

Top
Page 83 of 129 < 1 2 ... 81 82 83 84 85 ... 128 129 >

Who's Online
1 registered (Irked), 18 Guests and 0 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Newest Members
Superfly, GreatNewsTonight, danarhea, RoughDraft274, CPWILL
6292 Registered Users
A2