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#313987 - 08/19/19 01:38 PM Global warming predictions
logtroll Offline
veteran

Registered: 04/26/10
Posts: 9481
Loc: One of the Mexicos
I spent a half hour this morning watching videos of river running, looking for a good metaphor for our approach to the climate crisis. Didn't find what I was looking for, I think because watching a boat go though a big set of rapids from the shore is nothing like actually being in the river.

Many rivers in the western U.S. with big rapids are a type that's known as 'pool and drop', the product of a geologic situation where tributary streams deposit boulders and such into the main river from floods, or ridges of solid rock from granitic or igneous formations. You will float along on stretches of fairly calm water, sometimes for a mile, then around a bend up ahead will come a gradually increasing noise of turbulent water. You can tell big water from the pitch of the sound and how long it takes to get to it. When it comes into view, the first thing you see is not big waves and white water - you see a flat horizon of water across the river, with maybe a few splashes coming up from below. And a loud roar... The steeper the gradient, the closer you have to get to see where to go. We usually have maps and descriptions of the rapids, of course, which provide guidance about where to enter the run and how best to maneuver on the way through. In my experience, you can run a Class II rapid pretty casually as set up and maneuvering are not critical, and you can see the rocks and hazards from quite a distance away. A Class III will have a horizon and set up at the top is fairly important, but emergency maneuvers on the way through are possible. Class IV is a type you had better scout and run correctly, as the wrong line is a probable swim - and swimming in whitewater is no fun (it's not really even swimming...). I have never run a Class V, but can speculate that you'll want to take a quick s*** while you're on the shore scouting in order to avoid an unwanted distraction as you risk your life. Class VI is un-runnable without a serious mishap probably resulting in death...

As I see it, many people can hear the global warming rapids coming from down the river, but we are drifting slowly through the long pool, warm sun shining, laying back in the raft sipping a beer and watching the canyon above for Bighorn sheep - it's still not anything to start preparing for. Unfortunately, no one has run The Big One that's around the bend, and it's a Class V or VI. The proper action at this point would be to put ashore to do some serious scouting (unmetaphorically speaking, to begin making some radical changes to the lazy, thoughtless, and indulgent way we have become accustomed to living). The river of our culture is approaching a major drop, which will likely need portaging, or maybe abandoning our gear entirely and hiking out of the canyon.

But my prediction is that we will not manage any meaningful proactivity before the pool ends at a horizon across the river, and will panic when reaching the top of The Big One rapids without a decent set up or the ability to maneuver on the way down.

Hey, would somebody pass me a cold beer?
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#313989 - 08/19/19 02:21 PM Re: Global warming predictions [Re: logtroll]
Greger Online   content

Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 15534
Loc: Florida
Waterfall. Sharp rocks. Who survives the fall will likely drown.
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#314022 - 08/20/19 02:21 PM Re: Global warming predictions [Re: Greger]
logtroll Offline
veteran

Registered: 04/26/10
Posts: 9481
Loc: One of the Mexicos
Interesting, but I take note that the author didn't actually name any local actions that people can implement to fight the climate crisis.

I believe the primary reason that folks generally don't know what they can do, is that what can be done on a personal level involves a conscious and willing choice to make some effort... (please see my new signature line below).

Think globally, act locally.
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#314025 - 08/20/19 05:05 PM Re: Global warming predictions [Re: logtroll]
Greger Online   content

Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 15534
Loc: Florida
Local efforts are a crap waste of time. Recycling is a local effort. We have failed miserably. Microplastics have just been found in pristine arctic snow. Plastic has been found at the bottom of the Marianna Trench. Mt. Everest is littered with tons of garbage, dead bodies and frozen s*** as a daily queu of "climbers" wanders up the airless slope in a disillusioned line. Each laden with more garbage and s***. Locals try to keep things clean but they just can't keep up.

We all try to keep our carbon footprint as small as possible without actually giving anything up. But when the beach is covered with footprints who can tell what size they are?

Follow the science.

A massive extinction event is demonstrably underway.

Atmospheric CO2 rising. Temperature rising. Ice melting. Seas rising.

Homo Sapiens might imagine himself to be more than just another animal dependent on the earth, air, and water for survival. But I've got news...

My actual prediction is dire. But I can see a path to our survival and future success as a species.
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#314030 - 08/20/19 06:59 PM Re: Global warming predictions [Re: Greger]
itstarted Offline
old hand

Registered: 01/27/03
Posts: 6428
Loc: Florida/Illinois
What Greger said.. 100%
.............................................
Circa 1978... On the wrong branch of a river in the Adirondaks, son in the bow, me in the stern... faster, and suddenly louder... rounding a bend and looking at 5 feet of fog/water, and a 45 degree drop between sheer sharp rocks. Heart stopping... no choice.. three minutes of sheer terror... canoe 1/4 filled with water.
It finally flattened out, a brought us to a tiny village... met on the shore by a resident asking "How did you get here?".

That's what Class V is.

I am seriously afraid that attempts at saving the environment are analogous to going back upstream in that river.

Last chance that I see is adopting the Social Credit System. Not recommending but I can see no way forward. Afraid we've run out of time. Today's population of the US, is 329M... when I was born, it was 136M.

To lighten this up a bit, read this article about Harry, and Elton John....

Quote:
The total for the two flights would therefore be 19.8 tonnes, equivalent to more than three times the annual carbon footprint of the average Briton, or 58 times the annual emissions of someone in Lesotho, where Prince Harry went on his gap year and helped found a charity.

Harry and Elton
... and then check to see if your #7 plastic bottle is recyclable. grin



Edited by itstarted (08/20/19 07:01 PM)
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#314033 - 08/20/19 07:47 PM Re: Global warming predictions [Re: logtroll]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 8791
Loc: North San Diego County
We need a complete revamp of the recyclable container industry. We have a large number of plastics we use for these containers and packaging. We need to outlaw those that are not recyclable and color code the remaining plastics. Recycling centers are closing because they can't make enough money to stay in business. We need to outlaw mixed packaging, where the recyclable components are difficult to separate. We also need to institute large fines for putting contaminated plastic in recycle bins. People actually put dirty diapers in them, and it screws up the sorting machine badly.

The recycle stream has to be easy to machine sort. There has to be real recycling on the other end of the sort facility, that really use the plastic to make other plastic items of the same color instead of shipping it to poor countries to be dumped or burned. Or there could be facilities that burn unrecyclable colors to completion to generate electricity.

We can make recycling work, it just costs more when you don't externalize. Turns out "externalization" comes right back and bites you in the ass. There really is no such thing. It's just littering on a global scale.

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#314037 - 08/20/19 09:11 PM Re: Global warming predictions [Re: Greger]
logtroll Offline
veteran

Registered: 04/26/10
Posts: 9481
Loc: One of the Mexicos
Originally Posted By: Greger
...We all try to keep our carbon footprint as small as possible without actually giving anything up. But when the beach is covered with footprints who can tell what size they are?

Here's the main local, actually personal, thing that needs to happen (but virtually no one will do it by choice) - BE LIKE GREGER. Don't do much, don't consume much, reduce your desires.
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#314040 - 08/20/19 10:23 PM Re: Global warming predictions [Re: logtroll]
Greger Online   content

Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 15534
Loc: Florida
Well, Logmeister, you sure nailed that one down. But I didn't do it by choice either. $7.21 an hour doesn't necessarily reduce your desires but it definitely reduces your options.
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#314043 - 08/21/19 12:07 AM Re: Global warming predictions [Re: Greger]
logtroll Offline
veteran

Registered: 04/26/10
Posts: 9481
Loc: One of the Mexicos
I do admire how you have adjusted your philosophy and outlook to fit your circumstances, however un-chosen they be. And as for your carbon footprint, I'd speculate that it is less than 10% of most of us here.

Maybe there's something we can do - give trophies for the smallest carbon feetprints!
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You canít solve a problem without first understanding what the problem is.

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#314044 - 08/21/19 12:23 AM Re: Global warming predictions [Re: logtroll]
itstarted Offline
old hand

Registered: 01/27/03
Posts: 6428
Loc: Florida/Illinois
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