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#317508 - 10/30/19 12:48 AM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: chunkstyle]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 842
Originally Posted By: chunkstyle
How dare voters stay home and not vote for candidates to screw them over! Donít they understand how politics work?! Well Trump surely showed them their errors. Maybe now voters will fall in line with another corporate hack promising access to the bananas if they can only jump high enough.
Stay at home sulkers should really take a look at themselves in the mirror and reflect on how they, and they alone, have been responsible for the Parties presidential defeat. Clearly some folks donít know whatís good for them. Who the adults in the room are and other patronizing gibberish.


If you don't like either major party candidate, you have only a few choices. Stay home and don't vote, go to the polls and vote against both major party candidates by voting third party. 9 million voters did exactly that in 2016. Or one votes for the candidate you want to lose the least, not win, but lose the least. One needs to remember that 60% of Americans disliked or view that candidate unfavorable, 58% viewed the other candidate unfavorably or negatively.

My disgust with both major party candidates in 2016 lead me to vote against both. Even knowing what I do today, I still would vote against both.

If the major parties come up with candidates that are unacceptable, who's fault is that? Neither was acceptable to me, so I didn't vote for either one of them. Others went my route, still others said to Hades with it and stayed home.

I realize that those who are party animals can't understand why who they choose are not acceptable to everyone. Each individual is different, have differing political views, different likes and dislikes, view the candidates and parties differently. I don't hold staying home against anyone or voting their preferences whether it is for a major party candidate or against both.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#317509 - 10/30/19 01:10 AM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: jgw]
chunkstyle Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 2356
Originally Posted By: jgw
For those who sulk, and not vote. PLEASE, submit an empty ballot. If you all did that a message would be sent. This is a simple fact and blank ballots are counted. voting is not a right, voting is a responsibility. Not voting does nothing, other than prove, to yourself (and others when you brag on it), that you are not responsible, don't give a damn, and, certainly, part of the problem.


That happened in Michigan. It doesn't appear that the DNC got the message.

Politics works like this:

You have to get more votes to get elected. If you get less votes you lose. In order to win again you have to find a way to appeal to more voters so you can get more votes again.

Hectoring people, saying your better than the 'other side', and outright putting your thumb on the scales to rig the primary is not coming up with better appeals for voters to turn out. It's an admission that you have no ideas to lead with but want to maintain your good thing you got going at the expense of election victories.

Addressing peoples material concerns with proposals that have popular support does. It's been proven here in the past and abroad in the present.



Edited by chunkstyle (10/30/19 01:12 AM)

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#317510 - 10/30/19 01:11 AM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: perotista]
chunkstyle Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 2356
Agree with that.

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#317511 - 10/30/19 02:09 AM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: chunkstyle]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17282
Loc: Florida
Quote:
it's to early to say it's in the bag.


But you have reason to be hopeful.

I'd be thrilled if it turned into a race between progressives with Joe Biden left out in the cold.
_________________________
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

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#317524 - 10/30/19 12:01 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 842
I think it is dangerous to think the election is in the bag. I think most of us thought 2016 was in the bag for Hillary. That includes me and almost every political pundit with the exception of Nate Silver. He gave Trump a 30% chance to win and was derided by almost everyone. I know I resigned myself to a Hillary win the moment it became clear Trump would be the GOP nominee. I didn't pay the election much attention after that. I even forecast a Hillary win.

I don't know how much you all pay attention to polls. I do a lot. If you look at the generic presidential poll, you have this. Question 53. The Democratic Candidate 40%, Trump 36%. Independents 26% the Democratic Candidate, Trump 28%.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/s96v7z4zoa/econTabReport.pdf

Now there are quite a lot of folks in the "It Depends," column. That I take to mean their vote will be decided by who is the Democratic nominee. There is also a lot of folks in the "I won't vote," category which make YouGov unique. Most polls force a person to choose even though they have no intention of voting.

Now here are your mythical head to head match ups thanks to RCP averages.

Biden 50.1% Trump 43.4%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Warren 49.7% Trump 44.0%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...arren-6251.html

Sanders 50.0% Trump 43.5%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...nders-6250.html

Buttigieg 47.8% Trump 44.2%

Now there are three kinds of polls, all Adults which history shows 55% of them vote on average. Registered Voters, an average of 65% of them vote and likely voters which shoots the average of those who vote up to 80%. Historical averages give or take a point or two.

The above polls are of registered voters which means that 35% of them who answered and chose a candidate won't bother to vote. For elections, you want the likely voter polls, they more accurate on gauging the results although they too can't determine who will and will not actually vote. They still include 20% of those who will not vote.

Then there is a the margin of error of every poll. Usually plus or minus 3 points. One last thing, the electoral college. The Democratic Candidate 210, Trump 163 with the rest in the tossup column which could go either way.

Back in 2016 just prior to the election the count was Clinton 206, Trump 164 with 171 in the tossup column.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#317529 - 10/30/19 03:32 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: perotista]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17282
Loc: Florida
Quote:
I don't know how much you all pay attention to polls.


I pay almost no attention at all to them. I mostly see them in headlines but usually don't go much deeper than that. Bernie currently ahead in New Hampshire is about all I need to know for the moment. Biden is losing ground. Chunks has pointed to a possible path for Bernie so I'm adding that into my models. Warren is still going to be seen as the centrist candidate between Biden and Bernie.

Primary voters are generally more conservative than public opinion, but I'm predicting an uptick in progressive voters this time around because Trump has energized his opposition on every front. The Trump Bump won't be felt as much in the primaries but left leaning voters are energized and may sway the election towards a more progressive candidate than Biden.

Quote:
I think it is dangerous to think the election is in the bag.

It's dangerous when voters don't show up because the polls tell them they don't need to. Don't know why you'd think it dangerous to be confident that your candidate can win.
_________________________
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

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#317530 - 10/30/19 04:00 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Greger]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 842
Originally Posted By: Greger
Quote:


[quote]I think it is dangerous to think the election is in the bag.

It's dangerous when voters don't show up because the polls tell them they don't need to. Don't know why you'd think it dangerous to be confident that your candidate can win.



It's one thing to think your candidate can win, it's another to take it for granted your candidate will win. Which I equate "In the bag," means.

Unless a couple of those Democratic candidates start to move up that I support, who wins the Democratic nomination is kind of irrelevant to me. But since you are interested in the states, that is where the nomination will be won or lost, not nationally. Currently in Iowa, its Warren, Biden, Buttigieg and Sanders.

In New Hampshire Warren, Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg.
In Nevada Biden, Warren, Sanders with Harris ahead of Buttigieg.
In South Carolina Biden, Warren, Sanders and Harris.

Then comes super Tuesday, a couple of states, the big ones. California Warren, Biden, Sanders and Harris.
In Texas Biden, O'Rourke, Warren and Sanders.

Around 40% of the total delegates are up for grabs on Super Tuesday, the chances are good we'll know who the democratic nominee will be after all the votes are counted then.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#317532 - 10/30/19 04:21 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3604
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
I repeat. I will vote for anybody the Dems put up - I just want Trump gone. By the time he is done we won't have a single ally left and all the courts are going to be packed. Then there are all the 'fixes', little things, like lowering drinking water standards, attacking national monuments for miners and oil folk, climate change denial, trying to log the Alaska national park forests, lies 80% of the time, etc. you know - all them little things. I may not agree with whoever the Dems choose but whoever it is they gotta be better than Trump!

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#317534 - 10/30/19 04:45 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: jgw]
pdx rick Offline
Member
CHB-OG

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 43288
Loc: Puget Sound, WA
Originally Posted By: jgw
I repeat. I will vote for anybody the Dems put up - I just want Trump gone. By the time he is done we won't have a single ally left and all the courts are going to be packed. Then there are all the 'fixes', little things, like lowering drinking water standards, attacking national monuments for miners and oil folk, climate change denial, trying to log the Alaska national park forests, lies 80% of the time, etc. you know - all them little things. I may not agree with whoever the Dems choose but whoever it is they gotta be better than Trump!

Amen brother jgw Bow

smile
_________________________
Contrarian, extraordinaire



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#317539 - 10/30/19 06:40 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: jgw]
chunkstyle Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 2356
Simple enough.
I guess we have to hope thatís enough reason for people to come out and vote then.
With that logic, Dems should be able to run a sack of door knobs and win.

Or Biden. Same thing really.

Thatís not fair. Door knobs wonít throw you in jail for selling weed.


Edited by chunkstyle (10/30/19 06:49 PM)

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