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#316652 - 10/13/19 03:36 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: Greger]
perotista Online   content
stranger

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 186
Originally Posted By: Greger
Quote:
So we’ll sit on the sidelines and wait to see how 2020 plays out.


I dunno...to my notion it appears to be pretty much a done deal. Unless trends change dramatically, Warren will continue to rise and Trump will lose to any Democrat. Donald Trump is not "shrinking" government, he is not adhering to any conservative principles that I am aware of unless chaos is among them. Republicans will vote Republican regardless of how bad their candidate might be. Democrats will sit home if they haven't got a candidate they like.

But Democrats are united against Trump. You won't see many sitting home or voting third party this time around. Can Trump's base overwhelm this tsunami? I don't think so.

I think you're right. It will be Trump vs. Warren. If so I will vote third party once again. I can't see replacing someone I dislike with someone else I dislike and disagree with her policies. One is as good as the other to me or as bad ala 2016.

It's all a matter of personal perspectives. Independents are deeply divided when it comes to their vote. Question 53. 25% the democratic Candidate, 32% Trump, 18% state it depends which I take it as meaning their vote depends on who the Democrats nominate. This despite that 44% of independents don't want Trump to run for reelection, only 36% do. Question 89. Of course all of this is very dynamic and changes constantly. This far out it means little. We don't know how impeachment will fair and there are always other major events that will happen that can reshape the race.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/x3neaunoh2/econTabReport.pdf

Interesting in comparing Warren to Trump among independents. 14% view Warren very favorably, 14% somewhat favorably, 12% somewhat unfavorably and 31% very unfavorably. Although she has a lot of growing room with 29% in the don't know column. She could use that 29% to increase those who view her favorable or they could join the unfavorable crowd. Question 44R.

Trump, Question 71A is seen very favorable by 22% of independents, somewhat favorable by 19%, somewhat unfavorable by 13% and very unfavorable by 36%. Only 11% fall into the Don't know column, so I imagine his number won't change much.

I have this gut feeling it is Warren the Trumpers want him to face in 2020. Warren doesn't have much charisma, neither did Hillary. I'm not sure how her far left policies and stances will play with the more moderate independents, those whose political philosophy falls in-between the left and the right. If they even pay much attention to them.

In short, I'm not ready to concede 2020 to Warren beating Trump. Not yet. I will concede that at the moment it seems she would. But it would be really close.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#316653 - 10/13/19 03:45 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: Greger]
perotista Online   content
stranger

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 186
Originally Posted By: Greger
Quote:
So we’ll sit on the sidelines and wait to see how 2020 plays out.



But Democrats are united against Trump. You won't see many sitting home or voting third party this time around. Can Trump's base overwhelm this tsunami? I don't think so.


Oh, only 3% of Democrats voted third party, 4% of Republicans, 12% of independents in 2016.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

That's not many. in 2012 1% of both Democrats and Republicans voted third party, 5% of independents.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/

The big difference, more than third party Democratic voters was turnout. In 2012 the Democrats had a 5 point advantage in party affiliation which increased to a 6 point advantage in those who actually turned out to vote. 2016, the democrats held a 6 point advantage in party affiliation, but that shrunk to just a 3 point advantage among those who actually turned out to vote.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#316654 - 10/13/19 04:59 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: NW Ponderer]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 17148
I agree that turnout is the key, politically. That is, I think, the core of Trump's election strategy. He feels if he can keep his base committed, he can win because of turnout. I think he's wrong, but that's a political calculation.

At the risk of incurring chunk's derisive wrath, I don't think either party is conservative, in the traditional sense. It is clear, to me, that the Democratic party is more pragmatic, and the Republican more ideological. Yes, there are ideologues in the Democratic party, of course, but the party is distinctly left-leaning but broader in the approach. The apparent radicalization is really just a visceral reaction to 40 years of gross Republican incompetence and mean-spirited rhetoric and policies (and brazen corruption). It is just that so many things have gone horribly wrong during Republican control.

I also agree with Perotista's point about the distinction between traditional conservatism and the current "factions" that claim the mantle - social, religious, fiscal, neo, TEA and political - but don't represent conservative "values". In the same way, though, Democratic socialists may be in the Democratic party, and are certainly of the left, but they don't represent "liberal" values in many respects. In the same way that I decry being static for static's sake, I don't advocate change just for change. It's just that so many things need to change, and fast. [I'd also recommend reading Warren's platform carefully, as she is most definitely a capitalist in the FDR mode, and seeks to save it, and us, from its excesses.]

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#316657 - 10/13/19 07:39 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: NW Ponderer]
perotista Online   content
stranger

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 186
Originally Posted By: NW Ponderer
I agree that turnout is the key, politically. That is, I think, the core of Trump's election strategy. He feels if he can keep his base committed, he can win because of turnout. I think he's wrong, but that's a political calculation.

At the risk of incurring chunk's derisive wrath, I don't think either party is conservative, in the traditional sense. It is clear, to me, that the Democratic party is more pragmatic, and the Republican more ideological. Yes, there are ideologues in the Democratic party, of course, but the party is distinctly left-leaning but broader in the approach. The apparent radicalization is really just a visceral reaction to 40 years of gross Republican incompetence and mean-spirited rhetoric and policies (and brazen corruption). It is just that so many things have gone horribly wrong during Republican control.

I also agree with Perotista's point about the distinction between traditional conservatism and the current "factions" that claim the mantle - social, religious, fiscal, neo, TEA and political - but don't represent conservative "values". In the same way, though, Democratic socialists may be in the Democratic party, and are certainly of the left, but they don't represent "liberal" values in many respects. In the same way that I decry being static for static's sake, I don't advocate change just for change. It's just that so many things need to change, and fast. [I'd also recommend reading Warren's platform carefully, as she is most definitely a capitalist in the FDR mode, and seeks to save it, and us, from its excesses.]


I've always said Hillary had the personality of a wet mop along with being seen as elitist and aloof. I'm not sure how to describe Warren's personality, but being energetic or being able to enthuse isn't among them. Now she doesn't in my opinion have to motivate, provide enthusiasm or energy to her supporters, Trump has done that. Democrats won't stay home like in 2000 or 2016 with the assumption their candidate is going to win. They will turnout. I think 2018 proved that. Trump providing that additional incentive a less charismatic candidate couldn't.

Obama, the candidate was charismatic, McCain and Romney not, he won. Bill Clinton had charisma, G.H.W. Bush and Dole didn't, Bill won. G.W. Bush really wasn't that charismatic, more down homey against a statue Gore. Then you had the obnoxious oaf vs. the wet mop. I wonder if anyone else always got the impression every time Hillary smiled it was a fake smile?

I don't think you're going to convince any type of conservative regardless of what her platform states that she isn't an leftist extremist. I could be wrong. But I see the more traditional conservatives who really have a distaste for Trump most likely voting third party again if it's a Trump vs. Warren match up.

I could be wrong, I just don't see it. I imagine more would support a Biden, Klobuchar, Hickenlooper etc more than a Warren or Sanders. It is probably a built in bias being from Georgia that I have and perhaps other traditional conservatives have against Northeastern Liberals. Now I have always considered Biden more of a moderate as both a senator and VP.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#316658 - 10/13/19 08:10 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: perotista]
Greger Offline

Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 15620
Loc: Florida
Gentlemen, I could be wrong **he said in a mocking tone** But I am of the opinion that Donald Trump will prove to be the greatest "get out the vote effort" **makes finger parentheses** In the history of get out the vote efforts.

They're gonna com out of the woodwork to vote against Donald Trump.

You can insult some of the people some of the time, and you can offend some of the people all of the time but you can't piss off all of the people all of the time and expect to get re-elected.

Unless something dramatic happens it's gonna be Warren vs Trump. Warren is going to win, the Senate is going to flip, four major pieces of legislation will pass in the first 100 days and it's a slam dunk.

The game pieces are in place. The dice have been rolled. The strategy is impeccable. I've dealt the cards, thrown the bones, and gazed at the Oracle for hours on end...

Allow me this small obsession Gentlemen, you may pat me on the back when it all happens exactly as I said. A better day is coming!
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"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."— Oscar Wilde

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#316663 - 10/13/19 08:53 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: Greger]
logtroll Offline
veteran

Registered: 04/26/10
Posts: 9528
Loc: One of the Mexicos
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#316664 - 10/13/19 09:14 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: Greger]
pdx rick Offline
Member
CHB-OG

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 42029
Loc: Puget Sound, WA
Originally Posted By: Greger
Gentlemen, I could be wrong **he said in a mocking tone** But I am of the opinion that Donald Trump will prove to be the greatest "get out the vote effort" **makes finger parentheses** In the history of get out the vote efforts.

Yup, 69% of good and decent voting Americans can't stand Trump "personally." (Read: Hate his guts laugh )

smile
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#316666 - 10/13/19 09:23 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: Ujest Shurly]
Senator Hatrack Offline
member

Registered: 08/14/07
Posts: 1655
Originally Posted By: Ujest Shurly
Madison, advocated for a Constitutional Republic; the form of government we have. A form he believed would prevent the failings of a "pure democracy" and the failings of a Republican forum of government.

In Federalist 10, Madison is talking about how the form of government prevents a factious government that is most likely to be in a pure Democracy (like ancient Greece) or a pure Republic (like ancient Rome). Madison supported a mixed form of government, the Constitutional Republic; he believed this forum protected against the previous forms failings.

Your source is a publication by an individual, a biased individual. One who has cherry-picked his facts and then expands upon those select items. A more neutral source would be better and far less biased, For Example The Avalon Project

Exactly what Madison was talking about in Federalist 10 is in the Title of that paper "The Same Subject Continued
The Union as a Safeguard Against Domestic Faction and Insurrection"
From the New York Packet. Friday, November 23, 1787.
MADISON
and of Federalist 9 titled "The Union as a Safeguard Against Domestic Faction and Insurrection "

Should read them for yourself, they can confuse you and change your mind, or just plain give you more ammunition for your positions.
Thank you for proving the truth of my comment about why there aren't many conservatives here. As I said should I post something from a conservative site, which I did, that it would be automatically rejected. Which is exactly you did U jest Shurly. Then in your rush to reject my comment, because I used a conservative source, you did not see the link on the site to the complete essay of Federalist 10 Then you incorrectly assumed that I have not read the Federalist Papers. Not only did I go to the link that the conservative source you automatically rejected I picked up my copy of the Federalist Papers that I keep on my desk.
_________________________
The state can never straighten the crooked timber of humanity.
I'm a conservative because I question authority.
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#316671 - 10/13/19 11:16 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: Greger]
perotista Online   content
stranger

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 186
The difference is I'm not willing to set the 2020 results in stone yet, while you let the concrete harden.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#316674 - 10/13/19 11:31 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: pdx rick]
perotista Online   content
stranger

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 186
Originally Posted By: pdx rick
Originally Posted By: Greger
Gentlemen, I could be wrong **he said in a mocking tone** But I am of the opinion that Donald Trump will prove to be the greatest "get out the vote effort" **makes finger parentheses** In the history of get out the vote efforts.

Yup, 69% of good and decent voting Americans can't stand Trump "personally." (Read: Hate his guts laugh )

smile


Actually you have 31% of Americans who like Trump alot or somewhat, 14% who neither like or dislike Trump, 47% who either dislike him somewhat or a lot. Question 81.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/x3neaunoh2/econTabReport.pdf

The 47% who dislike Trump today is lower than the 60% who disliked him on election day 2016. Question 11 if one equates dislike with unfavorable.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf

Ah, but you said good and decent. Am I to draw the conclusion that the only good and decent Americans are the one's who hold the same political views as you? That Trump must go, be removed? In that case only 45% of all Americans are good and decent. Question 20. The rest, I suppose you can use any derogatory adjective you like.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/x3neaunoh2/econTabReport.pdf
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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