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#316720 - 10/14/19 08:37 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: Senator Hatrack]
Greger Offline

Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 15619
Loc: Florida
I beg your pardon! This cracked crystal ball is an ancient relic and is priceless! But if it makes you happy I'll get a new set of tarot cards from Amazon. I hear Bezos makes $168Million a day and I'm sure he'll appreciate my order.

The ex was just up in Cincinnati to a convention. She spoke with a farmers wife who told her that the young men are still sticking with Trump but the old guys are about over Him. He's fecked up the markets and they may never return.

Much as you'd love for Trump to reign until he dies and his eldest son Prince Junior take the throne upon his passing it's just not going to happen. One term and he's out. You can take that to the bank.
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."— Oscar Wilde

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#316724 - 10/14/19 09:38 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: Greger]
Senator Hatrack Offline
member

Registered: 08/14/07
Posts: 1655
Originally Posted By: Greger
I beg your pardon! This cracked crystal ball is an ancient relic and is priceless! But if it makes you happy I'll get a new set of tarot cards from Amazon. I hear Bezos makes $168Million a day and I'm sure he'll appreciate my order.

The ex was just up in Cincinnati to a convention. She spoke with a farmers wife who told her that the young men are still sticking with Trump but the old guys are about over Him. He's fecked up the markets and they may never return.

Much as you'd love for Trump to reign until he dies and his eldest son Prince Junior take the throne upon his passing it's just not going to happen. One term and he's out. You can take that to the bank.

Don't sell the priceless relic! But if you don't rush to order some tarot cards from Amazon Mr. Bezos just might go broke. If that happened you would be responsible for the destruction of his multi-billion dollar empire. Could you live with yourself if you did that?
ROTFMOL

A conversation your ex had one farmer's wife which trumps, pun intended. two polls conducted in NY and IA? Maybe your ex is in the wrong line of work?

No, two terms of Trump is enough for me. It is because except for one President, until the XXII Amendment, all of our Presidents wisely followed George Washington's example. Since I am a YUGE classical liberal Constitutionalist I like it where the document says twice that no titles of nobility are allowed.
_________________________
The state can never straighten the crooked timber of humanity.
I'm a conservative because I question authority.
Conservative Revolutionary

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#316730 - 10/15/19 12:13 AM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: Greger]
perotista Offline
stranger

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 185
Originally Posted By: Greger
I don't put as much faith in polls as you do. Remember 2016?


The polls were right if one read them correctly. The final RCP averages of polls had Hillary winning the popular vote by 3 points. She won it by 2 point. Now one must remember those polls all had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. Hillary's 2 point victory was well within the margin of error.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...stein-5952.html

Now how newscasters and political pundits predicted the election is beyond the polls. Using state polls RCP had Clinton with 203 electoral votes, Trump with 164 and 171 in the toss up column.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

If one is interested in elections, one should ignore all adult polls as we know on average only 55% of them vote. One may pay a bit more attention to polls who poll registered voters, then again 65% of them vote. The polls I pay attention to are the Likely voter polls where 80% on average vote. Still you don't know who or which candidate those 20% supported or answered they would vote for.

Trafalgar which polled Pennsylvania on 5 Nov 2016 had Trump leading by one, in Michigan Trafalgar had Trump and Clinton tied. In fact all the late polls from 1-5 Nov showed the race tightening in those two states.

Wisconsin, no polling organization polled that state since 29 Oct 2016, which meant that poll was basically useless.

My take on all of this anyway.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#316746 - 10/15/19 04:05 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: NW Ponderer]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 17148
And it is a great take.
_________________________
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich

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#316747 - 10/15/19 04:16 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: perotista]
Greger Offline

Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 15619
Loc: Florida
Quote:
The polls were right if one read them correctly.


Yet even you were surprised when Hillary lost.

So it appears to me that polls are best read after the fact as they are essentially unreadable beforehand.

They do offer some insight though. You'll note that I'm not claiming Beto is going to make a come from behind surprise victory or that Amy Klobuchar is a dark horse just waiting to make her move. Warren has been steadily climbing, Sanders going nowhere, and Joe riding the Obama coattails.
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."— Oscar Wilde

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#316748 - 10/15/19 04:21 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: Greger]
perotista Offline
stranger

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 185
I never expected wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan for Trump. Not really the polls, but each states voting history was more important to me. In close states, with the difference of less than 5 I usually go with the history of each state. Democrats had won Pennsylvania, Michigan six straight presidential elections, Wisconsin in seven.

I should have paid attention to the trend, but didn't. That's on me.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#316750 - 10/15/19 04:39 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: perotista]
Greger Offline

Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 15619
Loc: Florida
It was on everybody because everybody trusted the polls.

I've got an alternate prediction...Biden gets the nom and Trump wins.

Everybody will be surprised but me.
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."— Oscar Wilde

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#316803 - 10/17/19 12:58 AM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: NW Ponderer]
perotista Offline
stranger

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 185
I showed you where the polls were correct. I can't help how folks interpreted them. The polls showed a real close race which it was. The polls showed Hillary winning the popular vote by 3 points, she won it by 2. Well within the margin of error.

I think were most messed up, me included was shoving the polls aside in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. The fact Wisconsin went Democratic 7 straight times, Pennsylvania and Michigan 6, over rode what the polls were showing in those states. At least for me.

Then again, most of hear and see what we want to hear and see when it comes to polling. Most folks look at the horse race numbers and nothing else.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

Top
#316907 - 10/18/19 11:17 PM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: perotista]
Greger Offline

Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 15619
Loc: Florida
I don't read or try to interpret polls. I read a lot and try to predict trends. I glance at polls occasionally to be sure I'm not totally off base. Like if trump was ticking along with a 54% approval rate I'd be resigned to him serving a second term. But he aint and he won't.

Do I recall your hoping for a president who won't upset the apple cart?

You are aware, aren't you, that the apple cart has already been upset and we need strong decisive leadership, progressive leadership, to gather up the apples and set the cart upright again. Joe Biden is not and has never been a strong leader.
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."— Oscar Wilde

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#316918 - 10/19/19 01:14 AM Re: Where have all the conservatives gone? [Re: Greger]
perotista Offline
stranger

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 185
Originally Posted By: Greger
I don't read or try to interpret polls. I read a lot and try to predict trends. I glance at polls occasionally to be sure I'm not totally off base. Like if trump was ticking along with a 54% approval rate I'd be resigned to him serving a second term. But he aint and he won't.

Do I recall your hoping for a president who won't upset the apple cart?

You are aware, aren't you, that the apple cart has already been upset and we need strong decisive leadership, progressive leadership, to gather up the apples and set the cart upright again. Joe Biden is not and has never been a strong leader.


I'm not ready to have the country move that far left in my lifetime, although it will happen sooner or later. I don't consider either Sanders or Warren to be a steady, reliable leader. Of course I never considered Trump nor Hillary to be that either, that's why I voted against both.

Actually, I was hoping the democrats would latch onto a fresh young face. Time to pass the baton to the younger generation. But if we're going to stick with 70 plus year old's, then it's Biden for me.

The Democrats must have some up and commers, someone who isn't in their 70's trying to milk a couple of more years out of their political life? 2020 could turn out to be another 1960 if you're old enough to remember. The passing of the torch. It's time for that to happen. If we must elect an ideologue, then let that ideologue be a younger person.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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