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#317569 - 10/31/19 12:45 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 711
Has the South soured on Trump?

Iíve been going over polls looking at census regions instead of party ID and the like. What Iíve been seeing is the Midwest is now Trumpís and the GOPís strongest region. Not the south. Hereís what I found in several categories.

Trumpís very favorable/very unfavorable, Northeast 30/49, Midwest 32/41, South 27/49, West 26/48%

Generic presidential vote, Democratic Candidate/Trump, Northeast 44/36, Midwest 36/39, South 42/34, West 42/34%

Should Trump run for reelection, Yes/No, Northeast 40/52, Midwest 43/46, South 36/50, West 37/51

Should Trump be impeached and removed from office, yes/no, Northeast 49/39, Midwest 41/46, South 49/37, West 48/40%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zgaz948hzw/econTabReport.pdf

Thereís other categories in the link if you care to check them out. It does seem that the Midwest is now Trumpís strongest region of the country. The south is more in line with the Northeast and West Coast than the Midwest. To be sure that somehow YouGov didnít make a miss print, change the southís figures with the midwestís, I went back to an old poll, 31 July 2019 and found the same trend. The Midwest more pro-Trump than the south and the rest of the country.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/hash0nbry8/econTabReport.pdf

You can check the differences over time also, using the 30 July poll vs. the 29 Oct poll. I always assumed the south was Trumpís strongest region, the numbers say differently. I was surprised to say the least. What effect if any this has on the 2020 election is hard to tell, too early. I do know Trump is in Trouble in Georgia. With the right candidate the democrats can take my home state, maybe even fairly easily. I found this very interesting, thought Iíd share it.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#317571 - 10/31/19 01:17 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 17403
I found it very interesting, my friend. As I thought about it, though, I'm not surprised. There are two things that account for this, in my view:

First, most of the South is coastal. It is more dynamic (people moving in), physically closer to the Northeast than the Midwest, and more involved in international trade. It has more of a migrant population, too. The urban-rural population divide leans urban (Atlanta, Miami, Nashville, Memphis, etc.) The skew is the rural- urban ratio, and the fulcrum is the suburbs. The more and bigger the suburbs, the weaker the GOP gets (think Virginia and Johnson County Kansas, suburbs of KC, where Sharice Davids won).

Second - and remember, I'm a native Missourian - Midwesterners are extremely stubborn people. They come from pioneer stock, and stay set in their ways much longer. If you were to break down those survey results further, you would find a stark difference between the rural and urban areas of those representative States (and elsewhere in the country, too). In the rural Midwest, preachers hold sway. Radio personalities like Hannity, Limbaugh, Erickson, are just the modern equivalents of old time "revivalists". They just don't travel to the communities they preach to. There's a distinction between the bible belt and the rust belt, too.

Trump will remain strong with "believers", but industrial workers are skeptics. They went with him in '16 because they were skeptical of the establishment. But, now HE'S the establishment, and they haven't got what THEY were going for. They may not vote for dems, but they're more likely, like you, to "sit this one out".


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#317581 - 10/31/19 03:04 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: NW Ponderer]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 711
Originally Posted By: NW Ponderer
I found it very interesting, my friend. As I thought about it, though, I'm not surprised. There are two things that account for this, in my view:

First, most of the South is coastal. It is more dynamic (people moving in), physically closer to the Northeast than the Midwest, and more involved in international trade. It has more of a migrant population, too. The urban-rural population divide leans urban (Atlanta, Miami, Nashville, Memphis, etc.) The skew is the rural- urban ratio, and the fulcrum is the suburbs. The more and bigger the suburbs, the weaker the GOP gets (think Virginia and Johnson County Kansas, suburbs of KC, where Sharice Davids won).

Second - and remember, I'm a native Missourian - Midwesterners are extremely stubborn people. They come from pioneer stock, and stay set in their ways much longer. If you were to break down those survey results further, you would find a stark difference between the rural and urban areas of those representative States (and elsewhere in the country, too). In the rural Midwest, preachers hold sway. Radio personalities like Hannity, Limbaugh, Erickson, are just the modern equivalents of old time "revivalists". They just don't travel to the communities they preach to. There's a distinction between the bible belt and the rust belt, too.

Trump will remain strong with "believers", but industrial workers are skeptics. They went with him in '16 because they were skeptical of the establishment. But, now HE'S the establishment, and they haven't got what THEY were going for. They may not vote for dems, but they're more likely, like you, to "sit this one out".



I hear you. There is a huge divide between urban and rural, no doubt. Another difference is in 2016 Hillary Clinton had all the baggage, Trump was an unknown. This time around, it will be Trump with the baggage. I like your explanation, it makes sense to me.

I'm not sure about the other southern states, but here in Georgia in the 50's, 60's, 70's and 80's we got a lot of conservative businessmen and their companies fleeing the higher state taxes and state regulations of the Northeast to resettle here. That trend has changed. Now we're getting the more liberal folks from the northeast. Guess they ran out of conservatives.

Our politics is certainly changing, as is North Carolina's to go along with Virginia's. We're certainly much more urban. Concrete and asphalt has been replacing farmland at a steady pace. I live 25 miles south of Atlanta and it is fast becoming a suburb of that city. In my county alone, I seen the population grow from around 20,000 30 years ago to close to 250,000 today. What was farm land and small towns of less than 10,000 are large towns of 50,000 with hardly no farmland at all. I was born and raised on a farm.

I suppose that is called progress, but I hate it. One of these days there will be no farmland left, Soylent Green will become a reality.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#317583 - 10/31/19 03:56 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: perotista]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17040
Loc: Florida
Yeah...progress. I don't care much for it either but we've got to deal with it...Hence the need for progressive candidates. My little town is never going to be the sleepy little farming village it used to be. This country is never going back to what it once might have been.

City dwellers recognize the need because they live in the middle of it.

Rural voters find it much easier to hide their heads in the sand and pretend that progress will pass them by. Even as their farmlands are swallowed up by corporate industrial farms and everything else is paved over.

You can't go back. I don't look back and dream of how things used to be. I look to the future and dream of how things can be.
_________________________
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

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#317586 - 10/31/19 04:08 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Greger]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 711
Originally Posted By: Greger
Yeah...progress. I don't care much for it either but we've got to deal with it...Hence the need for progressive candidates. My little town is never going to be the sleepy little farming village it used to be. This country is never going back to what it once might have been.

City dwellers recognize the need because they live in the middle of it.

Rural voters find it much easier to hide their heads in the sand and pretend that progress will pass them by. Even as their farmlands are swallowed up by corporate industrial farms and everything else is paved over.

You can't go back. I don't look back and dream of how things used to be. I look to the future and dream of how things can be.



Welcome to Solent Green. Enjoy.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#317597 - 10/31/19 07:59 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: perotista]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17040
Loc: Florida
Your view of the future is somewhat more bleak than mine.

Quote:
Georgia has 9.9 million acres of land devoted to farms, with an average farm size of 235 acres. In 2017 Georgia had more than 42,000 individual farms, and the state's farmers sold more than $9.5 billion worth of agricultural products


Quote:
Florida has 47,740 farm operations; 9.5 million acres of farmland.


I think you're a little premature with your food shortage predictions.

But keep electing conservatives and you'll make it all come true!
_________________________
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

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#317598 - 10/31/19 08:02 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Greger]
pdx rick Offline
Member
CHB-OG

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 43111
Loc: Puget Sound, WA
Originally Posted By: Greger
I think you're a little premature with your food shortage predictions.

But keep electing conservatives and you'll make it all come true!


:ohsnap:


smile
_________________________
Contrarian, extraordinaire



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#317609 - 10/31/19 10:48 PM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Greger]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 711
Originally Posted By: Greger
Your view of the future is somewhat more bleak than mine.

Quote:
Georgia has 9.9 million acres of land devoted to farms, with an average farm size of 235 acres. In 2017 Georgia had more than 42,000 individual farms, and the state's farmers sold more than $9.5 billion worth of agricultural products


Quote:
Florida has 47,740 farm operations; 9.5 million acres of farmland.


I think you're a little premature with your food shortage predictions.

But keep electing conservatives and you'll make it all come true!


It's not political ideology that is causing the dwindling farm land. It's people. Neither conservatives nor liberals are even worried about it. Just the next election.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

Top
#317610 - 11/01/19 12:01 AM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: perotista]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17040
Loc: Florida
Lots of liberals are worried about it. Ever heard of Planned Parenthood, birth control, sex education? You know...far left stuff.

The conservative plan seems to mostly revolve around keeping the poors out of their neighborhoods. And denying them education and medicine.

Because Jesus.
_________________________
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

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#317613 - 11/01/19 12:21 AM Re: And we're off and running! [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
chunkstyle Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 10/02/07
Posts: 2356
Urban sprawl is progress?
This country was founded on real estate hustling. How did it get equated with progress I wonder.

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