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#317984 - 11/15/19 10:07 PM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: Greger]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline

It's the Despair Quotient!
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 14608
Loc: Whittier, California
Originally Posted By: Greger


Socialism and capitalism are opposing economic systems, they are not governmental systems. Neither one works very well on its own but when combined they become a powerhouse.


I think what most Americans aren't getting is the fact that, when Uncle Sam extends a hand with some of the heavy lifting, the country feels the improvement.
The last time we Americans banded together that way we did not turn socialist. We were capitalists but we got to see the entire South get electrified and watched them get water and sewer, highways, bridges and all other manner of important public works.

All over the nation, idled workers got jobs building and installing these much needed public works. We still use every last one of them today.
We depend upon them.

Now, with us being capitalists, the tendency is to keep the lion's share of the economy as capitalist, and we just add a smidgeon of socialism to the works the way one puts a dab of hot sauce on a Mexican entree in a restaurant.
That's what we did in the New Deal, and nothing else since has ever worked that well, it's just that simple.
_________________________
The only people pushing the Athenian Straw Man Nonexistent Threat of Slippery Slope Windyfoggery (ASMNSSW) RE DEMOCRACY are people who have a misunderstanding/problem or hatred of democracy. (See AUTHORITARIANS)

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#317986 - 11/15/19 11:19 PM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: Greger]
perotista Offline
newbie

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 233
Originally Posted By: Greger
I don't discard polls, I just don't use them as my primary source of information when predicting the future.

I'm also not dead set on a candidate, I see a possible path for a
progressive candidate to win and I've predicted that she will win. Both in the primaries and against Trump

Quote:
What's important to me isn't who wins or loses, it is getting my election forecasts right


Ditto. Though you seem somewhat reticent to make them until you can be sure you're right.

I have a very specific agenda and it will move forward more quickly if a progressive candidate is elected, but even Trump's re-election will help to move it forward. I consider Biden the biggest impediment to my goals. Biden is also(according to polls) the most likely to win. I'm aware that I might be calling a longshot, but I calls 'em as I sees 'em, not as a thousand random people here or there might see 'em.

Polls are a good reference and I check them now and again to be sure I'm on the right track and so far nothing is indicating that I'm wrong.



My first forecast isn't due until 1 Dec. Then I do monthly updates. I'm still researching senate and house races along with the presidency which I will rely on the generic Democratic candidate. As far as the Democratic primaries goes, who they nominate will decide whether I vote for their candidate or third party again.

Without being able to gauge impeachment in these races, it would be foolish to put one forth that would be official. Now without impeachment taken into consideration. As of today, numbers wise.

Senate, Alabama goes GOP, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina to the Democrats. A net gain of two as of today. Maine, Iowa and the two Georgia races could end up going democratic, but too early to put them into any category.

House Here's exactly what I have worked up today. It will be updated by 1 Dec to reflect the new numbers available then.

Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent seats. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. That isnít going to happen. The Democrats have 33 competitive/at risk seats of switching parties to the Republicans 17. The Republicans will have a net gain of 6 seats, the Democrats win MI-3, the independent seat with result of the new House having 230 Democrats, 205 Republicans.

The presidency, as of today without impeachment taken into consideration, I have worked up Generic Democrat 51%, Trump 48%, electoral college, Generic Democrat 333 Trump 205.

We both know Generic Democrat won't be their nominee. I also haven't figured in any third party candidate into the popular vote percentages. So these are early figures, numbers, forecasts that don't hold much weight at the present. But you asked for it.

Now I don't know if you can read this, but here is my final forecast for 2018


https://www.debatepolitics.com/blogs/per...ber-2018-a.html


Edited by perotista (11/15/19 11:20 PM)
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#317987 - 11/16/19 12:33 AM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: perotista]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 15781
Loc: Florida
Quote:
So these are early figures, numbers, forecasts that don't hold much weight at the present. But you asked for it.

No, I didn't. I just mentioned your reticence to pick a horse before the race begins. But I see you generally agree with me. It's been months since I made my call and there will be no monthly updates.
I stick by my forecasts.
In 2020 the House will stand, Senate will flip, Trump will lose. If Biden wins he will be defeated by a Republican in 2024. If Warren wins she will be re-elected.

I'm calling a primary win for Warren but admit it might be a longshot, the crystal ball is cracked, the scrying glass foggy, and no one I know really trusts the bones no matter how many times you throw them...
Tarot card readings on Trump aren't pretty.

Impeachment is a non-starter. It's not going to change any minds one way or another because, simply put, minds are already made up. Nobody is up in the air about Trump. It's all going to come down to turnout, and Democrats have plenty to turn out for. Republicans on the other hand...don't.

As far as I'm concerned you can take that to the bank...or at least to the betting window.
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."ó Oscar Wilde

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#317991 - 11/16/19 02:56 AM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: Greger]
perotista Offline
newbie

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 233
Originally Posted By: Greger
Quote:
So these are early figures, numbers, forecasts that don't hold much weight at the present. But you asked for it.

No, I didn't. I just mentioned your reticence to pick a horse before the race begins. But I see you generally agree with me. It's been months since I made my call and there will be no monthly updates.
I stick by my forecasts.
In 2020 the House will stand, Senate will flip, Trump will lose. If Biden wins he will be defeated by a Republican in 2024. If Warren wins she will be re-elected.

I'm calling a primary win for Warren but admit it might be a longshot, the crystal ball is cracked, the scrying glass foggy, and no one I know really trusts the bones no matter how many times you throw them...
Tarot card readings on Trump aren't pretty.

Impeachment is a non-starter. It's not going to change any minds one way or another because, simply put, minds are already made up. Nobody is up in the air about Trump. It's all going to come down to turnout, and Democrats have plenty to turn out for. Republicans on the other hand...don't.

As far as I'm concerned you can take that to the bank...or at least to the betting window.


Okay, not being a party animal, I really don't have a horse in this race. At least among the big three Democrats.

I'll either vote Democratic in 2020 or third party. Warren had some fairly good momentum 2-4 weeks ago closing in on Biden. But what keeps Biden in the lead is the Democratic Party /primary black vote. Biden is getting 40% of the black vote to Warren's 19%, Sanders 12%. Among Democratic primary white voters it is Warren 30%, Biden and Sanders each with 19%. This is nationwide, which of course nationwide doesn't decide the nominee. Hispanics are closer, 24% for Biden, 20% for Sanders, 16% for Warren.

Hillary won the 2016 nomination on the black primary vote. Few know Sanders edged her out among white Democratic primary voters. You have my 2022 prediction, that is where I leave it.

One thing you have to realize is I don't like either major party, although I'll support candidates from either one I like.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#317998 - 11/16/19 06:43 PM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: Greger]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2638
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
Sorry, Democratic Socialist. He has refused to even join the Democratic Party - he is NOT a Democrat! He has never claimed to be a Democrat but he has claimed to be a plain "socialist".

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter...atic-socialist/

The good thing, I guess, is that he has not claimed to be a National Socialist?


Edited by jgw (11/16/19 06:44 PM)

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#318000 - 11/16/19 06:58 PM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: Greger]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 2638
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
I forgot. My quibble is only, really, over the term "socialist". I literally do not care about the rest of it. I don't like Bernie for a number of reasons but, if he gets the nod I will vote for him! (anybody chosen is my candidate to support as I want Trump gone before we are forced to speak Russian).

As far as "socialist" is concerned I just think its REALLY dumb to claim that term in whatever somebody is claiming. The Dems seem to have an ongoing problem with their messaging. Just the word "socialist" as any part of a self description, for a candidate is, as far as I am concerned, is just plain stupid. Remember, Hitler was a National Socialist. Socialists seem to have a bad habit of going bad over time. I have nothing to cite on the claim, its just a personal thought.

In 2020 claims of "Socialist" or "Socialism" will contribute to more people voting for Trump. Its politically destructive and dangerous to make a claim of socialism or being socialist. We REALLY don't need that especially as long as the economy holds and Trump is seen as providing jobs. Its simply common sense as far as I am concerned.

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#318002 - 11/16/19 07:16 PM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: jgw]
pdx rick Offline
Member
CHB-OG

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 42120
Loc: Puget Sound, WA
Originally Posted By: jgw
The good thing, I guess, is that he has not claimed to be a National Socialist?

National Socialists are right-wingers. You will nary hear a word from a righty who will cop to that fact, though. coffee
_________________________
Contrarian, extraordinaire



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#318008 - 11/17/19 01:01 AM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: jgw]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 15781
Loc: Florida
Quote:
My quibble is only, really, over the term "socialist".

I know that, but there is really nothing we can do about it.

Every single thing that benefits society as a whole is socialism. Everthing that benefits corporations and wealth is capitalism.

You can't have it just one way.
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."ó Oscar Wilde

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#318010 - 11/17/19 01:12 AM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: Greger]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline

It's the Despair Quotient!
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 14608
Loc: Whittier, California
Originally Posted By: Greger
Quote:
My quibble is only, really, over the term "socialist".

I know that, but there is really nothing we can do about it.

Every single thing that benefits society as a whole is socialism. Everthing that benefits corporations and wealth is capitalism.

You can't have it just one way.


A female who is filled with hot lust and desire for a guy might still be on the fence about sleeping with him if she thinks word might get out about it resulting in her being slut shamed.

In politics, being accused of being a socialist is like being slut shamed, and the drive to take the emotional charge off the word slut is only succeeding in a narrow sector of society, even in this day and age.

The patterns are similar.
_________________________
The only people pushing the Athenian Straw Man Nonexistent Threat of Slippery Slope Windyfoggery (ASMNSSW) RE DEMOCRACY are people who have a misunderstanding/problem or hatred of democracy. (See AUTHORITARIANS)

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#318016 - 11/17/19 04:47 PM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: jgw]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 15781
Loc: Florida
JGW, did you read the article you cited? or did you just get as far as Bernie claiming to be a socialist?
Go back and read it all the way through. I can't explain this to you any better than they do.

Quote:
Sanders is technically a social democrat ó he isnít calling for a red revolution, just "a way of making capitalism humane,"



You don't like the word because republicans use it as a slur for anything they disagree with. You know what I say about republicans and what they say...?

Feck 'em. That's what I say.
_________________________
"Be yourself; everyone else is already taken."ó Oscar Wilde

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