Current Topics
Is it too soon to be talking 2020?
by perotista
0 seconds ago
What happens if the election doesn't settle due to voting problems?
by Greger
11 minutes 1 second ago
Medications that might help against SARS-CoV-2
by Greger
35 minutes 14 seconds ago
Coronavirus: The Plague of The 21st Century?
by jgw
Today at 06:55 PM
RoundTable for Summer 2020
by Greger
Today at 06:33 PM
Normal Stuff
by pondering_it_all
Yesterday at 10:07 PM
Portland. A Turning Point?
by Irked
08/01/20 12:49 AM
A possible solution to rental problems.
by Irked
08/01/20 12:21 AM
Ongoing Slavery
by jgw
07/31/20 05:06 PM
The Departed - 2020
by pondering_it_all
07/29/20 01:33 AM
Seattle had a Riot!
by jgw
07/28/20 06:17 PM
The Boogaloo Bois
by pondering_it_all
07/25/20 08:08 PM
Collections
by Greger
07/24/20 11:08 PM
There needs to be a Ďreal reckoningí for Trumpís abuses if Biden wins
by pondering_it_all
07/24/20 09:35 PM
Deranged Trump supporter suspected in murdering son of judge
by Greger
07/24/20 05:54 PM
What is the purpose of Capitalism?
by logtroll
07/24/20 12:07 PM
Chad Wolf
by pdx rick
07/24/20 03:54 AM
why cities won't be able to stop Trump's secret police
by jgw
07/23/20 07:06 PM
Fox News anchor shared fabricated tweet in attempt to smear AOC
by rporter314
07/22/20 03:11 AM
We have now reached peak Libertarianism - and it is literally killing us
by jgw
07/21/20 07:07 PM
Forum Stats
6292 Members
60 Forums
16977 Topics
301704 Posts

Max Online: 294 @ 12/06/17 12:57 AM
Google Adsense
Page 3 of 7 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 >
Topic Options
Rate This Topic
#317948 - 11/14/19 01:21 PM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 708
Originally Posted By: Jeffery J. Haas
President Trump is now officially WORRIED about "Never Trumpers".
As well he should be, because their numbers are going to grow.
With every minute of these hearings, more and more a picture is beginning to emerge, and with every minute, one more Trump zombie is extinguished as they join the ranks as brand new fresh NEVER TRUMPERS.
And Trump can't stop what's coming, just like he has been unable to stop everything else that's been coming.
But we dare not take any of this for granted, despite what we see and know is happening.
A wounded pig becomes a dangerous pig.

If this impeachment is successfully quashed on manufactured conspiracy theories, the outcome literally changes this nation into a full-on kleptocracy.
We will quite literally join Russia, pre-rev Ukraine, Honduras, Nigeria, and any number of nations that end in "stan".

We will quite literally become the global capital of Chaostan.

In other words, this is the part in the mythical fairy tale where the sailors actually start to see the water rushing over the edge of the flat earth, this is the point at which we literally sail off and over the edge.

It sounds cute and trite, but.....
"Here be monsters."

Think of the kind of bedfellows we invite into our national security, our intelligence, our justice and our financial centers as a result of such a turn of events.



There's two ways to tell the effect of the impeachment hearings. One is to compare today's Trump approval rating to his approval rating once the hearings end or once the trail is over. But keep this as a starting point. 43.9% approval per RCP averages.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Number two is to keep track of Trump's impeachment and removal numbers.

Democrats for impeachment 82%, removal 81%
Republicans for impeachment 12%, removal 11%
Independents for impeachment 36% removal 37%

If you like you can add the do not impeach and the do not remove numbers. But to see the total effect, you have to have a starting point.

Democrats against impeachment 6%, removal 8%
Republicans against impeachment 80%, removal 82%
Independents against impeachment 39%, removal 38%

Questions 15 and 16

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7umtlf80ov/econTabReport.pdf

These are your starting point numbers. Keep them and compare as time goes by. they will show if your opinions on the Never Trumpers and the like are correct or wrong. Numbers are a beautiful way to show how one's theories are true or false. They aren't bias or partisan.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

Top
#317949 - 11/14/19 04:58 PM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: pdx rick]
rporter314 Offline
veteran

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 7240
Loc: Highlands, Tx
OK ... I guess polls would satisfy a personal rationalization for whatever one's bias is, but remember

Originally Posted By: wiki
In 2015, large majorities of American adults, both Republicans (79%) and Democrats (88%), supported background checks for private sales and at gun shows, according to a Pew Research Center survey. In 2017, strong majorities of American adults, both gun owners (77%) and non-gun owners (87%), supported background checks for private sales and at gun shows, according to a Pew Research Center survey with an error attributable to sampling of +/- 2.8% at the 95% level of confidence. In 2018, after the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in Parkland, Florida, nearly all Americans supported universal background checks. 88% of registered voters supported universal background checks, according to a Politico/Morning Consult poll with a margin of error +/- 2%. 94% of American voters supported universal background checks, according to a Quinnipiac University Polling Institute poll with a margin of error of +/- 3.4%.

and so despite an overwhelming (I think this is what Republicans believe rampant means or maybe only 1%) support for universal BGC, no Congress and in particular Republicans have intentionally stopped any legislation which would enact such a law.

So if public support for conviction (if impeached) is in a majority, what would that mean? Could I buy a cup of java with that knowledge?

Let me include a couple of quotes which I believe reflect the attitude of the only jury which makes a difference.

Originally Posted By: Sen Graham
Iíve written the whole process off... I think this is a bunch of B.S.


Originally Posted By: Rep. Landgrebe
Donít confuse me with the facts. Iíve got a closed mind.
_________________________
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
Get off the crazy train!!! ... dump Trump

Top
#317950 - 11/14/19 05:09 PM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: rporter314]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 708
We'll see what happens, I gave you all a starting point. How you use it or don't use it is up to you. Numbers can take the bias and partisanship out of things and they can also show biases and ultra high partisanship to a degree most wouldn't imagine.

Use these as a stating point or don't That I leave up to you.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

Top
#317951 - 11/14/19 07:37 PM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: perotista]
rporter314 Offline
veteran

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 7240
Loc: Highlands, Tx
The only poll which matters is the Senate Republican whip count.

You missed the point of my post. I was pointing out that sometimes it doesn't matter what the polls say, there are other considerations which are more important to those who are writing laws. We have such a case in the current Trump Party. Far more important to placate THE BASE, than suffer the political consequences.

A better poll (which would gauge Senate votes) would be a state by state poll. I can't speak for Democrat senators but as an example the senators from Alabama or S Carolina are firm 110% not guilty and they do not have to see any "evidence".

I am still sitting on my 20% of Senate Republicans who may vote to convict. I don't see any movement and the WH is calling in the chips and intimidating the jurors.

But none of that matters. House Democrats have seen something which they believe is impeachable and are doing their Constitutional duty. I can only control what I do, and maybe, hope to influence others to do what is right.
_________________________
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
Get off the crazy train!!! ... dump Trump

Top
#317952 - 11/14/19 07:40 PM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: perotista]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17034
Loc: Florida
You don't need polls to know that Democrats are for impeachment and Republicans are against. In roughly equal numbers. And polls won't tell you whether the Senate will convict or not.

I say they won't. Because from their side they aren't being pushed into it. The folks who elected them don't want him impeached or removed. They love him. He was chosen by God to prepare the church for the end days. It's pretty comical when you think of it.

You'll note that the Republican defense of Donald Trump borders on the comical as well. Because they don't need to defend him. As far as Republican voters go they will all vote Republican. Same as it ever was.

And I insist that the anti-Trump/anti Republican backlash in 2020 is going to be devastating and may never actually show up in the national polls. But they may...keep your eye on the numbers Pero and I'll continue using magickal means to divine the future.
_________________________
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

Top
#317953 - 11/14/19 08:35 PM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: Greger]
rporter314 Offline
veteran

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 7240
Loc: Highlands, Tx
Quote:
anti-Trump/anti Republican backlash
A bit hyperbolic.

For there to be a backlash we would have to see a significant number of those Trump supporters abandoning Mr Trump. Now let me remind you ... I can shoot someone etc etc

There will be Trump supporters who will turn their back on him, but I suspect the real shift will be among independents. 60-40 or 65-35.

Now the problem ... this has to occur in those states which were formerly in the Blue Wall and in battleground states for there to be a Trump defeat (plus a heavy Democrat turnout). Otherwise we may see the same results as 2016.

I can see it now ... a little handed emperor who demands you bend the knee.

Vote and vote often
_________________________
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
Get off the crazy train!!! ... dump Trump

Top
#317954 - 11/14/19 09:15 PM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: pondering_it_all]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3443
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
I am, pretty much, in agreement with you on most of it. I am, however, not sure about the Obamacare thing. The Republicans were able to demonize that one because the Democrats couldn't fight back. I am, even now, not even sure they were actually for it in the first place. I remember when it was being dealt with and the Dems seemed to be fighting like hell to stop it! Half the bill was actually written by the Republicans (I watched the markup on TV and then refused to vote on the bill they actually wrote half of.

Part of the Moscow Mitch promise to stop ANY Obama legislation (was actually shown on TV!). I just think that Obamacare was just one thing but the main thing was the Republican party promise to fight, or stop, ANY legislation by Obama.

The Dems just gotta stop the 'socialist' as it can cost them the election. The so-called tax cut absolutely must be repealed and, whilst at it, the taxes for the 1% should be, at least, tripled. Its kinda interesting. The argument of the the rich is that they are already paying the bulk of the taxes and any more would be unfair - ie. "BULLSH*T!"

Top
#317956 - 11/14/19 11:34 PM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: rporter314]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 708
Originally Posted By: rporter314
The only poll which matters is the Senate Republican whip count.

You missed the point of my post. I was pointing out that sometimes it doesn't matter what the polls say, there are other considerations which are more important to those who are writing laws. We have such a case in the current Trump Party. Far more important to placate THE BASE, than suffer the political consequences.

A better poll (which would gauge Senate votes) would be a state by state poll. I can't speak for Democrat senators but as an example the senators from Alabama or S Carolina are firm 110% not guilty and they do not have to see any "evidence".

I am still sitting on my 20% of Senate Republicans who may vote to convict. I don't see any movement and the WH is calling in the chips and intimidating the jurors.

But none of that matters. House Democrats have seen something which they believe is impeachable and are doing their Constitutional duty. I can only control what I do, and maybe, hope to influence others to do what is right.



I may have indeed miss the point. But the post I responded to was talking about Never Trumpers along with the rest of the populace, not senators. My take on the senate, today, you could very well have Democrat Jones, Alabama where Trump has a 60% approval and Democrat Manchin, West Virginia, Trump is at 61% there. Both could vote Nay on impeachment and removal. A nay vote certainly would be with the wishes of a good majority of the people in their state. Jones if he voted AYE would doom any reelection chances he has in 2020.

I count 4-5 GOP senators vote AYE for impeachment and removal. Most of the rest are in deep red states that supports Trump and voting Nay would once again be voting the way the people of their state want them too. The last time I looked, our representatives and senators were suppose to represent the people of their district and state first and foremost.

Now this is as of today. That can change. Pressure brought on the senators from the people of their state could convince them to change their vote. Otherwise, it is more or less a party line vote. Why? Wanting Trump gone or to stay is also along party lines. You can break it down, 85% of democrats want Trump impeached and removed, 85% of Republicans don't. Independents are split roughly 35-35 for and against removal with 30% undecided or just plain don't care.

One last thing, when impeachment hearing began on Nixon, 9 May 1974, you had 58% of Democrats favoring impeachment and removal vs 70% of Republicans who were against. independents split much like today. But in 1974 we didn't have the polarization or ultra high partisanship we have today.

So we'll see.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

Top
#317957 - 11/15/19 12:51 AM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: perotista]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 10113
Loc: North San Diego County
Quote:
Independents are split roughly 35-35 for and against removal with 30% undecided or just plain don't care.


That 30% can make all the difference in 2020. That works out to about 10% of voters. If you can convince them Trump is a crook, that 10% makes the election a rout. Even if they go to the polls just because they are tired of this show, that would do it. There are a lot of "Red States" where the Republicans win by 5% or less. But if 10% of the independent voters vote against Trump, you can flip a lot of those states. Just look at the states where Trump won by less than 5% in 2016:

state_____________electoral votes
Michigan 16
Florida 29
Pennsylvania 20
Wisconsin 10
Arizona 11
North Carolina 15

total 101 votes

2016 results: 232 to 306
2016 results with 101 change: 333 to 205

Top
#317959 - 11/15/19 02:01 AM Re: Revenge of the Human Scum [Re: pondering_it_all]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 708
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
Quote:
Independents are split roughly 35-35 for and against removal with 30% undecided or just plain don't care.


That 30% can make all the difference in 2020. That works out to about 10% of voters. If you can convince them Trump is a crook, that 10% makes the election a rout. Even if they go to the polls just because they are tired of this show, that would do it. There are a lot of "Red States" where the Republicans win by 5% or less. But if 10% of the independent voters vote against Trump, you can flip a lot of those states. Just look at the states where Trump won by less than 5% in 2016:

state_____________electoral votes
Michigan 16
Florida 29
Pennsylvania 20
Wisconsin 10
Arizona 11
North Carolina 15

total 101 votes

2016 results: 232 to 306
2016 results with 101 change: 333 to 205

Exactly. You can add my home state of Georgia to that list. Trump wasn't all that popular back in 2016, it was Hillary was more unpopular.

I don't see Trump winning Pennsylvania or Michigan again. Wisconsin I'd rate as pure tossup along with the rest of the states you mentioned. One reason Hillary lost was lack of turnout of the Democratic base. The Democrats had a 6 point edge of the GOP in party affiliation back in November 2016. But only a 3 point edge in those who turned out to vote.

There's a good reason I say if the democrats nominate someone who is attractive to the independent voter, they'll win in a landslide. If they don't, if they nominate someone who is as disliked as much or more than Trump, ALA Hillary in 2016, another 2016 is certainly possible.

Michigan 16 Independents went to Trump 52-36, independents made up 29% of the vote.
Florida 29 Independents went to Trump 47-43, Independents made up 34% of the vote
Pennsylvania 20 independents went to Trump 48-41 Independents made up 20% of the total vote.
Wisconsin 10 Independents went to Trump 50-40, Independents made up 30% of the vote
Arizona 11 Independents went to Trump 47-44, Independents made up 40% of the vote
North Carolina 15 Independents went to Trump 53-37, Independents made up 33% of the vote
I'm adding Georgia to your list Independents went to Trump 52-41, Independents made up 30% of the vote.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/georgia/president

Independents don't care much for Trump, but cared less for Hillary. So this is why I harp on having a candidate attractive to independents. Not just one's party base. Keep in mind that 12% of independents voted third party rather than choose between two major party candidate they detested. We know they dislike Trump, but we don't know their view on who the Democrats will nominate. Until we know that, 2020 is still undecided, at least in my book.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

Top
Page 3 of 7 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 >

Moderator:  Doug Thompson, Greger, NW Ponderer 
Who's Online
0 registered (), 148 Guests and 0 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Newest Members
Superfly, GreatNewsTonight, danarhea, RoughDraft274, CPWILL
6292 Registered Users
A2