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My vote will be for Biden, and this is why
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Trump really doesn't
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small nuclear reactors (SMR)
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#319958 - 01/12/20 09:18 PM Re: The Impeachment of Donald trump [Re: Greger]
Greger Online   content


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 16498
Loc: Florida
The billionaires? Seriously? Have Democrats fallen that low? To let candidates just buy their way in? You don't want any votes from the left at all do you jgw? Nominate a billionaire and you can kiss them every one goodbye.

We're just a small group. You don't want or need our votes.

You just want the independent votes...the right leaning independent votes.
_________________________
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

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#319962 - 01/12/20 10:54 PM Re: The Impeachment of Donald trump [Re: jgw]
perotista Offline
newbie

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 449
Originally Posted By: jgw
perotista
I fear you are missing something here. The simple fact is that the independt are not dedicated lefties and those candidates running on the far left will not get their vote. This has been proven, time after time. So, the candidate, to be appealing to the independent, can't be continuously selling free everything pie in the sky. That stuff should be saved for AFTER getting elected! The only two candidates that are actually doing that are Bloomberg and Steyer. However, if either of them get the nod the purist lefties will cause a huge uproar and, then, just as happened with Bernie they will not vote. If the Dems engender a massive vote, however, that might not matter as the purist democratic lefties are not actually a huge percentage of Democratic party. Bernie and Warren, for instance, will not get the independent vote and will lose to Trump. That is, I believe, a simple fact.

A lot of the problem is the media and what they cover. They will cover, to exhaustion for instance, any little battle within the Democratic party with gusto as they LOVE to cover political bickering of candidates. This is not helpful (I think its just plain wrong but tv, for instance, knows what people want to watch and the voting public seems to dote on that sort of thing.) My wife watches Sunday Political Shows. They go on and on. If there is a mean spirited Republican available he will get the time to state his/her fantasies. They are rarely called for flat out lying. My own thought on that kind of stuff is that it should be delayed by the couple of minutes most can be truth checked and then reported if there is a problem. If they did that there would be fewer Republican talking heads which would not break my heart. I can go on and on with this one but I betcha most understand this one.

My main fear is that the Dems are going to run somebody who simply cannot get the independent vote. As far as I can tell few Democrats are even thinking past the dreamland of the left with all that free stuff. The very attitude that nary a one actually understand that stuff paid for with taxes is NOT free! Their problem is that the independents don't buy that one. There have been a pile of polls that prove that one.

I am all for the inspiration thing but, first, they have to inspire more than a small group of lefty purists who are determined to REALLY screw it up to make some kind of point. My main fear is that they are going to get their way and we will get to have another 4 years of Trump. After that I am not so sure we won't have him for the rest of his life. Please remember, the numbers Trump has, amongst voters are almost exactly the same as those Hitler had when he took over. These are dangerous times!

Again, I am not against all that the purists want to do, I just wish they would stop preaching it until they win and that, obviously, just isn't going to happen. My main hope is that Trump screws up bad enough to get replaced without killing us all in the process.

Oh, I would prefer either running billionaire to the current crop of non-billionaire candidates. This preference is based on who I think can really beat Trump, especially concerning his economic figures. Nobody with the current economy has ever been beat, as far as I can tell - not a single one. The Dems gotta get smart if they are to win and, so far, they are failing, big time.
I agree. I've made it a habit of studying independents as in any close election, they are the deciding factor. I already mentioned the fact 90% of those who identify with the two major parties will vote for their party's candidate regardless of who it is or how good or bad that candidate is.

Then I break down independents into three groups, independents lean Republican, independents lean Democratic, then pure or true independents with no leans. Independents who lean toward one party or the other vote for the party's candidate around 75% of the time. Independents who lean one way or the other make up an average of 80% of all independents. Which means only 20% of independents, give or take are true independents, no leans. Roughly 8-10% of the total electorate.

I keep track of this stuff for my monthly election forecasts. I do think even with a good economy, Trump can be had and beat soundly with the right candidate. I'm no democrat and I'm not about to tell them who I think that candidate is. That's for them to figure out.

Yes, Sanders voters were one of many reasons Hillary lost in 2016. Perhaps the moral of the story is don't jury rig your primaries in a certain candidate's favor and don't choose your candidate four years in advance. I'm not much worried about the primaries, most independents can't vote in them and most don't pay them much attention.

I'm backing Steyer here in Georgia. I'll vote for him in the primary if he is still around. If he wins the Democratic nomination, then I'll put what's left of my old Reform Party organization to work for him. If they have a mind too that is.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#319963 - 01/12/20 11:23 PM Re: The Impeachment of Donald trump [Re: logtroll]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3062
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
We are, pretty much, in agreement.

My problem is that I don't think the Dems are going to choose somebody that can beat Trump. I do know that the extreme lefties are turning off a lot of the independents (including myself). I think much of this has to do with purity (basically, I am right and the rest of the world is wrong and if I don't get my way I won't play crowd). I am probably being to mean spirited in this one but I have been watching it for a long time and its just getting worse.

Its very strange. The system was setup to have 2 sides. That's it. Third parties have come and gone with vigor and just can't get a grip. If I am right then there are 2 choices. No more no less. I kinda like it as it forces sides to work together. I am, yet again, just wrong. We are in a state where nobody wants to give an inch. My problem with that one is that is not the way its supposed to be. Nobody has to give up anything, all everybody has to do is agree on which side they want to win then vote for that side. This time I would think that was an easy one but I guess not. All the rest is personal minutia which the side itself should work out. Its kinda like having a house burn down with the kids inside and mom and dad are fighting over what TV show to watch.

Its truly bizarre. I would vote for either Steyer or Bloomberg with no problem at all. I would also vote for the Democratic choice with no problem. Besides those two I don't think any of the others can take out Trump. I do know that the lefty purists don't stand a chance against him.

Oh, I have been wrong a lot on this stuff and I certainly hope I am dead wrong about all of this. The whining I hear about the billionaires buying the election are not exactly help in all of this either. Given that most of the other candidates are not exactly in the poorhouse one can only wonder. I don't think, incidentally, that Steyer or Bloomberg can be called self servers out to enrich themselves as they have both, as far as I am concerned, proven that they are sincere and capable of beating Trump. (at least to me)

Hillary was a lousy candidate. I thought she would probably make a great president but it didn't happen. She was so maligned that large segments actually believed she is a monster. She never fought back once and was above it all I guess. The Republicans spent literally millions of dollars trying to nail her and failed. I always thought that might say something about the malignment - I was wrong about that too <sigh>

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#319965 - 01/13/20 12:34 AM Re: The Impeachment of Donald trump [Re: jgw]
Greger Online   content


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 16498
Loc: Florida
Quote:
My problem is that I don't think the Dems are going to choose somebody that can beat Trump. I do know that the extreme lefties are turning off a lot of the independents (including myself). I think much of this has to do with purity (basically, I am right and the rest of the world is wrong and if I don't get my way I won't play crowd). I am probably being to mean spirited in this one but I have been watching it for a long time and its just getting worse.

Don't forget, Bucko, that I'm perfectly okay with Trump winning a second term. I see this as a race between Biden and Bernie, Same ol' same ol' versus change-o change-o. The Billionaires? We'll see if anyone really takes them seriously as the voting begins. The most conservative among us have come out in favor of them.

If Bernie gets the nom nom will you vote for him jgw? Will you hold your nose and vote for the Socialist?
_________________________
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

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#319968 - 01/13/20 01:30 AM Re: The Impeachment of Donald trump [Re: logtroll]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline
It's the Despair Quotient!
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 15422
Loc: Whittier, California
Our POTUS campaigns every four years are an attempt to SELL, or MARKET a person and their ideas to the American people. I might not be a salesman but I AM a film editor, and I've edited something like seven thousand commercials in the forty years I've been in the business, so I believe I've come to something of an understanding about what makes an effective marketing campaign.
If you want to sell veggie burgers, DO NOT CALL THEM Veggie Burgers. Call them something that sounds familiar.

I think in the last twenty years I've seen something like a hundred different attempts to make veggie burgers catch on with the mainstream.
Guess who finally cracked the code?
BURGER KING.
They called it "The Impossible Whopper".

The word "veggie" does not appear anywhere in their marketing campaign.
If Bernie can take a cue from Burger King, then he WILL be our next president.
_________________________
"The Best of the Leon Russell Festivals" DVD
deepfreezefilms.com

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#319977 - 01/13/20 04:23 AM Re: The Impeachment of Donald trump [Re: perotista]
rporter314 Offline
veteran

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 7092
Loc: Highlands, Tx
Based on numbers you have shown, it appears these are national polling numbers. I don't need a poll to "know" a dead ham sandwich will beat Mr Trump in a national poll. What people need to know is what polling shows for the current battleground states i.e. it's about the electoral votes ergo an electoral poll.

Punch some holes in those IBM cards and show state polling. I am going to guess using a cracked crystal ball .... Mr Trump has the edge.

If you are in a battle ground state ... vote and vote often ... once is not enough!!!!!
_________________________
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
Get off the crazy train!!! ... dump Trump

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#319981 - 01/13/20 01:58 PM Re: The Impeachment of Donald trump [Re: jgw]
perotista Offline
newbie

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 449
Originally Posted By: jgw
We are, pretty much, in agreement.

My problem is that I don't think the Dems are going to choose somebody that can beat Trump. I do know that the extreme lefties are turning off a lot of the independents (including myself). I think much of this has to do with purity (basically, I am right and the rest of the world is wrong and if I don't get my way I won't play crowd). I am probably being to mean spirited in this one but I have been watching it for a long time and its just getting worse.

Its very strange. The system was setup to have 2 sides. That's it. Third parties have come and gone with vigor and just can't get a grip. If I am right then there are 2 choices. No more no less. I kinda like it as it forces sides to work together. I am, yet again, just wrong. We are in a state where nobody wants to give an inch. My problem with that one is that is not the way its supposed to be. Nobody has to give up anything, all everybody has to do is agree on which side they want to win then vote for that side. This time I would think that was an easy one but I guess not. All the rest is personal minutia which the side itself should work out. Its kinda like having a house burn down with the kids inside and mom and dad are fighting over what TV show to watch.

Its truly bizarre. I would vote for either Steyer or Bloomberg with no problem at all. I would also vote for the Democratic choice with no problem. Besides those two I don't think any of the others can take out Trump. I do know that the lefty purists don't stand a chance against him.

Oh, I have been wrong a lot on this stuff and I certainly hope I am dead wrong about all of this. The whining I hear about the billionaires buying the election are not exactly help in all of this either. Given that most of the other candidates are not exactly in the poorhouse one can only wonder. I don't think, incidentally, that Steyer or Bloomberg can be called self servers out to enrich themselves as they have both, as far as I am concerned, proven that they are sincere and capable of beating Trump. (at least to me)

Hillary was a lousy candidate. I thought she would probably make a great president but it didn't happen. She was so maligned that large segments actually believed she is a monster. She never fought back once and was above it all I guess. The Republicans spent literally millions of dollars trying to nail her and failed. I always thought that might say something about the malignment - I was wrong about that too <sigh>
I went back looking over the polls of Trump vs. the top four candidates in various states. Steyer and Bloomberg aren't included. Regardless of the state, Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg are all within 5 point of each other vs. Trump. All 4 beat Trump in Wisconsin by 1-5 points with Biden having the 5 point advantage. All 4 lead Trump in Nevada between 1-8 points with Biden having the 8 point advantage, Warren and Buttigieg lead by 1. Michigan includes Bloomberg which leads Trump by 6 there, Biden is by 7, Sanders by 4, Warren by 2, Buttigieg by 1. Georgia is all Trump with his biggest advantage of 14 points over Warren, 12 over Sanders. Trump leads Biden by 7 who is the closest Dem candidate. Arizona, Trump leads all and they his lead ranges from 1 over Biden to 5 over Warren and Sanders. You can check others here.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

The problem with Hillary outside of being lazy and having a very inept campaign strategy is that she came across to the independent voter as being elitist, aloof, one who put on a facade in place of who she really was. 70% of independents had an unfavorable view of her, in other words they just plain didn't like her. Trump wasn't much better, 57% of independents didn't like him either and viewed him unfavorably. Question 10 and 11.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf

Not liking or wanting either candidate to become president is the main reason why 12% of all independents voted third party against both candidates. I was on of those 12% which translate into 9 million voters. These 9 million voters can be easily had for the Democrats as we already know they don't like Trump. But it will take a candidate they like and accept. If you think about it, that is 9 million voters who thought it important enough to go to the polls and vote against both major party candidates even though they knew whoever they voted for had no chance of winning. Was just a third name on the ballot, but most important to them, that third name wasn't Clinton nor Trump. Which is amazing since none of the third party candidates had any name recognition, no media coverage, no money, no way to get their message out, just a third name on the ballot. This shows the total dislike of both major party candidates that these folks would actually go vote was very strong among them.

With independents, I like to compare very favorable vs. very unfavorable among the candidates. The very favorable's are pretty much sure voters for that candidate, the very unfavorable's sure voters against that candidate. But it's a bit early to put much stock in them outside of getting a rough idea. I'll not bore you with them being it's so early, but if you want to get a good idea of who the independents will be voting for, this is a time proven method. More accurate than just hard numbers.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#319982 - 01/13/20 02:09 PM Re: The Impeachment of Donald trump [Re: rporter314]
perotista Offline
newbie

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 449
Originally Posted By: rporter314
Based on numbers you have shown, it appears these are national polling numbers. I don't need a poll to "know" a dead ham sandwich will beat Mr Trump in a national poll. What people need to know is what polling shows for the current battleground states i.e. it's about the electoral votes ergo an electoral poll.

Punch some holes in those IBM cards and show state polling. I am going to guess using a cracked crystal ball .... Mr Trump has the edge.

If you are in a battle ground state ... vote and vote often ... once is not enough!!!!!


Battle Ground states. Michigan, the top 4 Democrats lead Trump by 2-7 points, Biden has the 7, Warren the 2. Pennsylvania is the same, top 4 democrats by 2-7 points with Biden ahead by 7, Warren by 2. North Carolina, Biden and Sanders lead Trump by 1-3 points, Trump leads Warren and Buttigieg by 1-3 points. Florida, Biden over Trump by 2, Trump over Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg by 2-3 points. Ohio, the top 4 democrats lead by 4-6 points. Wisconsin, Biden leads Trump by 3, Trump leads the other 3. Arizona, Biden over Trump by 1, Trump leads the other three by 2-7 points. Iowa, Trump by 5-7 points.

Now you have the latest.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#319983 - 01/13/20 04:39 PM Re: The Impeachment of Donald trump [Re: logtroll]
logtroll Offline
veteran

Registered: 04/26/10
Posts: 10004
Loc: One of the Mexicos
Quote:
Not surprisingly, the Republicans have succeeded in trapping and using this resource. Whatever one likes or dislikes about the Democrats, their appeal to voters is primarily to logic. Whereas the Republicans long ago learned to appeal to the dark side of people’s emotions, since they had no logical or progressive policies to sell. So the Republicans have become the party of hate, misogyny racism, bigotry, homophobia, war, and anti-immigrant sentiment affixed to a false and extremist Christian face. They now, and have been for some time, openly organizing people around these negative emotions and behaviors. The mainstream media fails to recognize the effects of the extreme polarization of the two party system, and blames BOTH parties equally for the log jams in Washington.Those of us who have not fallen to such leaders are completely out of touch with the large segment of our country which follows them blindly. These millions of followers are quite naturally a valuable resource to be exploited by opportunist politicians like Trump, which seek to hide their true loyalties and irrational and destructive policies behind a public face of religious sympathy and support.


Understanding the mass psychology of the Christian right
_________________________
“You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.”
– R. Buckminster Fuller

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#319986 - 01/13/20 09:02 PM Re: The Impeachment of Donald trump [Re: logtroll]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3062
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
The trouble with beating Trump isn't the numbers but the economy. People who don't like him will vote for him if they believe that their jobs are on the line. I think the term is "voting your pocketbook". The Republicans haven't even begun to have at it yet and I am not sure the numbers are all that important. I do know how trump is considered in predictit (https://www.predictit.org) ie. where the money is going. Trump is winning there (these sites are fairly accurate in outcomes - I tried my hand with 10 bucks a couple of years ago, still have one bet working and 14 cents cash!)

I REALLY want Trump gone as I consider him incredibly dangerous. When its time for him to go there are going to be problems I think. When I consider that his numbers are just like Hitler's when he took over and 40% of Trump supporters want congress gone so Trump can have his way I just get jumpy. I consider what happened to Venezuela, at one time in the top 5 richest countries in the world, it tends to make me think that bad things can happen here too. I am probably too paranoid but........

https://washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/a...main-president/

I am not against what the left wants to do, I just wish they weren't so stridently selling it because its a turnoff for a rather large group of voters. (tends to concern the elderly, the not committed, etc.)

Just saying.............


Edited by jgw (01/13/20 09:51 PM)

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