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#320130 - 01/18/20 03:44 PM Re: Biden's Huge Lead in National Poll of Black Voters, 27% Want Black Running Mate [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 716
Originally Posted By: Jeffery J. Haas
I will never ever understand that.
Joe Biden was the linchpin of legislation that destroyed the lives of MILLIONS of black men for the most trifling offenses, two tier drug sentencing, the list of things he has allowed to be done to black people is a mile long.

It is incomprehensible.


Each of us individually, perhaps by group, block, race have our own reasons for voting the way we do. We don't view the political world in the same way or through the same eyes. The reason I vote the way I do may seem asinine to you as I may view the reason you vote the way you do for the candidates you support asinine also.

I prefer to let each individual make up their own mind for whatever reason and vote and support who they do. If the majority of blacks want to support Biden, I have no problem with that. If on average 90% of blacks support the democratic party, I don't have a problem with that either. If a majority of whites support the Republicans, that's okay in my book or if a majority of Hispanics support the Democrats, I'm fine with that. Let whatever reason folks, groups, blocks vote the way they do be determine by their own reasoning. Usually self interests or party loyalty or something akin to that.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#320150 - 01/19/20 03:30 AM Re: Biden's Huge Lead in National Poll of Black Voters, 27% Want Black Running Mate [Re: Greger]
CPWILL Offline
newbie

Registered: 12/26/19
Posts: 423
Originally Posted By: Greger
Quote:
...the African American demographic is socially and temperamentally probably one of the more conservative blocs within the Democrat party.
So, generally speaking, how's the black turnout for primaries?


I would defer to Perotista for that sort of information.

Quote:
Is Biden the sort of exciting candidate that will bring them out in droves? I suspect not.
They'll come out in big numbers to vote against Trump in the general, and even their supposed "conservative" status won't keep them from voting for Bernie should he get the nod.

Or you reckon a bunch of black people gonna say...Bernie's too progressive...I'm voting for Trump... LOL LOL LOL LOL


Eh, some will. Relatively very few.

Democrats bigger risk (here) is that Bernie - or a candidate with similarly low AA support - will depress turnout.


Don't get me wrong. I would love to see a Trump/Bernie debate series. The dark side of me would love the meme-ability of one angry senile old man yelling rude nicknames while another angry senile old man yells about how we have too many kinds of deodorant in the supermarket.

...It would just be terrible for the nation, is all.
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#320162 - 01/19/20 01:31 PM Re: Biden's Huge Lead in National Poll of Black Voters, 27% Want Black Running Mate [Re: CPWILL]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 716
Originally Posted By: CPWILL
Originally Posted By: Greger
Quote:
...the African American demographic is socially and temperamentally probably one of the more conservative blocs within the Democrat party.
So, generally speaking, how's the black turnout for primaries?


I would defer to Perotista for that sort of information.

Quote:
Is Biden the sort of exciting candidate that will bring them out in droves? I suspect not.
They'll come out in big numbers to vote against Trump in the general, and even their supposed "conservative" status won't keep them from voting for Bernie should he get the nod.

Or you reckon a bunch of black people gonna say...Bernie's too progressive...I'm voting for Trump... LOL LOL LOL LOL


Eh, some will. Relatively very few.

Democrats bigger risk (here) is that Bernie - or a candidate with similarly low AA support - will depress turnout.


Don't get me wrong. I would love to see a Trump/Bernie debate series. The dark side of me would love the meme-ability of one angry senile old man yelling rude nicknames while another angry senile old man yells about how we have too many kinds of deodorant in the supermarket.

...It would just be terrible for the nation, is all.

I had a chart of the percentage of Democratic primary voters per state which I can't find. It was an old one, 2008. So even if I found it, it would be outdated some.

Blacks make up approximately a third of the Democratic primary vote. Blacks make up 40-50% in some states in the south. Mississippi, Louisiana, Georgia, Maryland, South Carolina, Alabama, North Carolina are the states. If Biden continues with his 50-55% support among blacks, he'll win all of them. There were 6-8 other states which blacks topped the 20% mark in Democratic primary voters including New York, Florida and Illinois. The information was from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball report which I get monthly.

Few folks realize Sanders back in 2016 actually edged out Hillary among white Democratic primary voters. But Hillary trounced Sanders among blacks.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#320172 - 01/19/20 07:02 PM Re: Biden's Huge Lead in National Poll of Black Voters, 27% Want Black Running Mate [Re: perotista]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17049
Loc: Florida
I was hoping for better news on that front. Biden it is then. I'll be shifting my models in that direction. Early indicators are showing me a Biden loss to Trump. Republican bloodlust will overpower the elderly candidate and his center right coalition of voters.

Even Booker as a running mate won't save him.
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#320180 - 01/19/20 09:20 PM Re: Biden's Huge Lead in National Poll of Black Voters, 27% Want Black Running Mate [Re: Greger]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 716
Originally Posted By: Greger
I was hoping for better news on that front. Biden it is then. I'll be shifting my models in that direction. Early indicators are showing me a Biden loss to Trump. Republican bloodlust will overpower the elderly candidate and his center right coalition of voters.

Even Booker as a running mate won't save him.


I wouldn't be so sure. I know it's early, that campaigning in the general election can change and usually does a lot of the early stats and polls. Biden leads Trump at the moment in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The so call three deciding states from 2016.

Other prominent states Biden also has the early lead in North Carolina, Ohio, Florida Georgia and is tied, believe it or not with Trump in Texas. Now none of those leads are more than five points and most of the polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. But the early indication is strongly in Biden's favor.

If I were Biden, I'd have a campaign slogan of "Back to Normalcy." A play on Trump's obnoxious, uncouth and outrageous persona. My VP choice would also come from one of those prominent states. Not from the Northeast. Being a Georgian, I'm bias here, I'd pick Stacy Abrams. A young, black, female, state legislature who came within a runoff of winning the Georgia Governorship in 2018. Being a numbers guy, I think she has the possibility of giving Georgia to Biden. If Trump loses Georgia, there's no way he can win reelection.

Of course I'm more of a numbers guy, not an ideological one. So how her political philosophy would fit in with the Democratic Party, especially the progressives, I don't know. Being a numbers guy, I don't care.

If political philosophy is that important, not taking someone from a swing state that would tip the balance in that state. Perhaps I'd go with Tammy Duckworth, Illinois. Illinois is a guaranteed state, but I sure like her spunk. A veteran and a senator. Either one groomed properly I think would be hard to beat in 2024.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#320198 - 01/20/20 03:03 AM Re: Biden's Huge Lead in National Poll of Black Voters, 27% Want Black Running Mate [Re: pdx rick]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 716
I found this, it let's you know the percentage of non-white voters in the democratic primaries by state. This is non-white, not blacks only.

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball...favors-clinton/

The Democrats have 8 primaries and 3 caucuses where the non-white voters are above 50%, 8 more primaries and 2 caucuses where the non-white voters are between 35-50%. Scroll down to the list of states for the percentage of non-white Democratic Primary voters. The list verifies my original post figures.

the polls break down support for the Primary candidates via white, black, Hispanic groups, but not Asian. Using the numbers provided, I'll combine black and Hispanic support nationwide you can use to see how it translate via each state and each state's percentage of non-white voters in the democratic primaries.

Non-white support for Biden, 40%. for Sanders 20%, for Warren 15%.
White support for Biden 20%, for Sanders 21%, for Warren 21%

Non-whites made up approximately 45% of all Democratic primary voters to 55% white voters. It's interesting that nationwide white voters make up around 70% of the electorate, blacks 13%, Hispanics 12%, Asian and other 5% Within a point or two.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#320199 - 01/20/20 05:11 AM Re: Biden's Huge Lead in National Poll of Black Voters, 27% Want Black Running Mate [Re: perotista]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17049
Loc: Florida
Quote:
Non-white support for Biden, 40%. for Sanders 20%, for Warren 15%.
White support for Biden 20%, for Sanders 21%, for Warren 21%


So the way I read this is that among POCs it's 40% Biden and 35% Progressive.

Among whites it's 20% Biden and 42% Progressive.
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#320201 - 01/20/20 02:00 PM Re: Biden's Huge Lead in National Poll of Black Voters, 27% Want Black Running Mate [Re: Greger]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 716
Originally Posted By: Greger
Quote:
Non-white support for Biden, 40%. for Sanders 20%, for Warren 15%.
White support for Biden 20%, for Sanders 21%, for Warren 21%


So the way I read this is that among POCs it's 40% Biden and 35% Progressive.

Among whites it's 20% Biden and 42% Progressive.


You didn't need the breakdown via race to come to that conclusion. I have always said if either Sanders or Warren withdraws and throws their support to the other, then the one remaining becomes the favorite. As long as both remain in the race, Biden is the favorite.

Nationally, all Democratic primary voters its Biden 28%, Sanders 20%, Warren 15%. Add the progressive vote, it's Sanders/Warren combined 35% Biden 28%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...ation-6730.html

I wouldn't classify the rest of the field as progressive. Another way to look at it is progressive's 35%, non progressive's 65%. A huge divided field is what lead to Trump winning the GOP nomination when the rest of the field couldn't come together and settle on a candidate to oppose him. Trump won with 35% of the total GOP primary vote not counting the last three or four primaries when Trump didn't have any opposition.

Let's look at the possible effect of the black/non-white vote via the early states.
Iowa basically a four way tie between Biden, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg. Non-white vote 7%.
New Hampshire, call it a tie between Biden and Sanders with Warren and Buttigieg 5 points behind. Non-white vote 4%.
Nevada, Biden 6 over Sanders, 9 over Warren. Non-white vote 36%.
South Carolina, Biden 17 over Sanders, 18 over Warren. Non-white vote 57%.

Then Super Tuesday. But the above shows you the power of the non-white/black vote in the Democratic Primaries. With 7 super Tuesday states in the south where blacks make up a huge portion of the Democratic primary vote, Biden could come out of Super Tuesday as the leader of the pack with a good sized lead.

Southern Super Tuesday states
Alabama 56% non-white
Arkansas 20% non-white
North Carolina 38% non-white
Oklahoma 18% non-white
Tennessee 34% non-white
Texas 54% non-white
Virginia 38% non-white.

Biden has from a small lead to a large one in all the states above. From 3-18 points.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

Top
#321312 - 02/10/20 05:26 PM Re: Biden's Huge Lead in National Poll of Black Voters, 27% Want Black Running Mate [Re: pdx rick]
Hamish Howl Offline
journeyman

Registered: 11/21/19
Posts: 608
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Biden downplays Super Tuesday importance.

https://apnews.com/d2bf61a0f36f7bfee0420c75ac9523e5
_________________________
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#321313 - 02/10/20 05:51 PM Re: Biden's Huge Lead in National Poll of Black Voters, 27% Want Black Running Mate [Re: Hamish Howl]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 716
Originally Posted By: Hamish Howl
Biden downplays Super Tuesday importance.

https://apnews.com/d2bf61a0f36f7bfee0420c75ac9523e5


Actually your link is about Biden downplaying New Hampshire, not Super Tuesday. I believe Biden should downplay NH and harp on South Carolina. Sanders is up big in NH while Biden has dropped to 5th. Behind not only Sanders, but also behind Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar.

No recent polls on Nevada. But being a caucus state, polls aren't all that good or accurate. Now South Carolina is heavily Biden. Biden has an 18 point lead over Steyer and 22 over Sanders. The rest are all in single digits. I think Biden must win South Carolina by a good margin or he is toast. The main reason for Biden's lead in a state where the black vote will determine the Democratic primary winner is among blacks its Biden 44%, Steyer 25%, Sanders 10%, Warren 9%. Blacks made up 57% of all democratic Primary voters in 2016.

https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenew...ection-matchups
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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