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#320186 - 01/19/20 09:50 PM Re: iranian general qassem soleimani [Re: jgw]
CPWILL Offline
newbie

Registered: 12/26/19
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: jgw
At the risk of repeating myself. I think we should get out of that area of the world, completely out! It has, over the years, cost us huge amounts of treasure (Afghanistan, right now, is costing something like 4 billion a month). There have been no successes - NONE! They have nothing we need. Not one administration, not one, has had any success doing a damn thing there. Its just an American money pit, nothing more, nothing less.

GET US THE HELL OUT OF THE MIDDLE EAST! (its just not a place to do good works - it doesn't work)


A nice simple suggestion. It even fits well on a bumper sticker, and, I agree, there is a definite emotional pull to it.


How well did that strategy work out, oh, say, when we tried it in Iraq back in 2012? Everything been hunky dory there since then?


Edited by CPWILL (01/19/20 09:50 PM)
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#320192 - 01/20/20 12:47 AM Re: iranian general qassem soleimani [Re: jgw]
pondering_it_all Offline
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Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 9259
Loc: North San Diego County
Even Trump says it's all about the oil, right in Fox News interviews. Or the money those oil-rich countries can pay us for our troops to guard their oil so American oil companies can "help" them market it. And any terrorism seems to be in response to us being there to "protect" that oil from the people of those same countries. If you only look at pieces of the problem, then every American action seems reasonable. If you stand way back and look at the big picture, not so much.

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#320194 - 01/20/20 01:06 AM Re: iranian general qassem soleimani [Re: pondering_it_all]
CPWILL Offline
newbie

Registered: 12/26/19
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
Even Trump says it's all about the oil, right in Fox News interviews.


Trump also tried to get the President of Ukraine to investigate a mythical server which he thought would prove that the Russians didn't try to interfere in U.S. domestic politics in 2016.

If your basis for understanding U.S. national interests is "Well Trump Said On TV That...."

He's POTUS and he gets to make decisions. But, unless he's reading from a script, he says whatever comes into his mind half a second before he says it.

Quote:
Or the money those oil-rich countries can pay us for our troops to guard their oil so American oil companies can "help" them market it. And any terrorism seems to be in response to us being there to "protect" that oil from the people of those same countries.


Actually a lot of it started with anger at thinks like American men and women dancing together, considering life insurance something they can talk openly about, and the seeping of western values into arabic culture (especially that). Conspiracy theories attempting to explain away Israel's victory in the 1967 Six-Day War (the widespread belief was that it was America who attacked Egypt and Syria, not Israel, and that, therefore, the Arabs had not been soundly defeated by the Jews, because that would have been really embarrassing) played a role, as did anger at the Saudi Royal Family for spurning offers of help in favor of the international coalition (lover scorned, and all that).

A lot of it is also based on presence, sure. But to attack the U.S., drawing the U.S. into your region, and then to blame them for being in your region is a bit like the boy who murdered his parents begging clemency from the court on account of his being an orphan.

Quote:
If you only look at pieces of the problem, then every American action seems reasonable. If you stand way back and look at the big picture, not so much.


Well agreeably I've only been really studying this for about 17 years now, but, I can't concur.
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#320214 - 01/20/20 03:44 PM Re: iranian general qassem soleimani [Re: CPWILL]
Hamish Howl Offline
newbie

Registered: 11/21/19
Posts: 378
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Originally Posted By: CPWILL
Originally Posted By: jgw
At the risk of repeating myself. I think we should get out of that area of the world, completely out! It has, over the years, cost us huge amounts of treasure (Afghanistan, right now, is costing something like 4 billion a month). There have been no successes - NONE! They have nothing we need. Not one administration, not one, has had any success doing a damn thing there. Its just an American money pit, nothing more, nothing less.

GET US THE HELL OUT OF THE MIDDLE EAST! (its just not a place to do good works - it doesn't work)


A nice simple suggestion. It even fits well on a bumper sticker, and, I agree, there is a definite emotional pull to it.


How well did that strategy work out, oh, say, when we tried it in Iraq back in 2012? Everything been hunky dory there since then?


When we say "get out", we mean "get out completely."
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#320217 - 01/20/20 03:49 PM Re: iranian general qassem soleimani [Re: Hamish Howl]
CPWILL Offline
newbie

Registered: 12/26/19
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Hamish Howl
Originally Posted By: CPWILL
Originally Posted By: jgw
At the risk of repeating myself. I think we should get out of that area of the world, completely out! It has, over the years, cost us huge amounts of treasure (Afghanistan, right now, is costing something like 4 billion a month). There have been no successes - NONE! They have nothing we need. Not one administration, not one, has had any success doing a damn thing there. Its just an American money pit, nothing more, nothing less.

GET US THE HELL OUT OF THE MIDDLE EAST! (its just not a place to do good works - it doesn't work)


A nice simple suggestion. It even fits well on a bumper sticker, and, I agree, there is a definite emotional pull to it.


How well did that strategy work out, oh, say, when we tried it in Iraq back in 2012? Everything been hunky dory there since then?


When we say "get out", we mean "get out completely."


Yes. I'm pointing out that the last time we tried this emotionally-appealing-but-unwise strategy, the result was that ISIS became for all intents and purposes a nation state and started inspiring/launching attacks in the West, forcing us to go back.

If I can steal from Christopher Hitchens - lack of action by the United States doesn't mean that "nothing happens". It means something else happens.


Edited by CPWILL (01/20/20 03:51 PM)
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#320224 - 01/20/20 05:34 PM Re: iranian general qassem soleimani [Re: CPWILL]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 16217
Loc: Florida
Welp, looks like endless war is the only answer.

Thanks for solving that dilemma.
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#320228 - 01/20/20 07:04 PM Re: iranian general qassem soleimani [Re: Greger]
CPWILL Offline
newbie

Registered: 12/26/19
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Greger
Welp, looks like endless war is the only answer.

Thanks for solving that dilemma.


Well, we tried outlawing it and ending it once, back after WWI. The results were less than desirable.

We live in a world of trade-offs and tragic realities. There are no "solutions", only better ways to manage permanent human conditions.


Edited by CPWILL (01/20/20 07:05 PM)
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#320232 - 01/20/20 07:29 PM Re: iranian general qassem soleimani [Re: CPWILL]
Hamish Howl Offline
newbie

Registered: 11/21/19
Posts: 378
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Originally Posted By: CPWILL


Yes. I'm pointing out that the last time we tried this emotionally-appealing-but-unwise strategy, the result was that ISIS became for all intents and purposes a nation state and started inspiring/launching attacks in the West, forcing us to go back.


And ISIS became a nation state because we "fixed" the Middle East ("stabilizin' the region"). ISIS began in 1999, but got precisely nowhere because the local strongmen beat the blue Jesus out of them every time they stuck their heads up. So we take out the strongmen, because they're big meanies and How those bad guys got there in the first place.

Every time we get ourselves involved in an open ended (goals-wise) conflict - which is almost every conflict we've been in - we make bigger monsters than we get rid of.

And then we forget that WE made those monsters, when it's time for the next iteration.
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#320234 - 01/20/20 07:37 PM Re: iranian general qassem soleimani [Re: Hamish Howl]
CPWILL Offline
newbie

Registered: 12/26/19
Posts: 149
Originally Posted By: Hamish Howl
Originally Posted By: CPWILL


Yes. I'm pointing out that the last time we tried this emotionally-appealing-but-unwise strategy, the result was that ISIS became for all intents and purposes a nation state and started inspiring/launching attacks in the West, forcing us to go back.


And ISIS became a nation state because we "fixed" the Middle East ("stabilizin' the region"). ISIS began in 1999, but got precisely nowhere because the local strongmen beat the blue Jesus out of them every time they stuck their heads up. So we take out the strongmen, because they're big meanies and How those bad guys got there in the first place.

Every time we get ourselves involved in an open ended (goals-wise) conflict - which is almost every conflict we've been in - we make bigger monsters than we get rid of.

And then we forget that WE made those monsters, when it's time for the next iteration.


1. There is no "fixing" the Middle East because there is no "fixing" humanity. There are no "solutions", only better means to manage permanent problems.

2. And nothing above answers the point - you seem, respectfully to be operating from the assumption that the opposite of "bad" results in foreign affairs is "good" results. While that can - sometimes - happen, the opposite of "bad" results is usually "absolutely terrifyingly destructive" results.

3. Though it's also convenient and easy to simply pick a single actor (say, the U.S.) and blame them for everything that happens, your narrative here is also inaccurate. The U.S. is not responsible for the Arab Spring playing out the way it did in Syria, and to the extent that our actions played a role in the rise of ISIS as a nation-state, it was our refusal to act against it until it was too late to stop it from doing so.




We tried the "let's just not pull out" approach in 2012. The result was that the region spun into crises, and launched an incredibly bloody double-set of civil wars that have since:

1. Created one of if not the largest refugee crises in the history of the post-war era

2. Killed so many people we have stopped counting

3. Seriously weakened if not potentially set NATO up to be crippled

4. Produced attacks in the West

5. Created a next-generation regional threat in the form of the tens of thousands of foreign fighters who have now received training, experience, and radicalization on the battlefield.


And so, the argument is.... "At least we didn't interfere until after all that had happened. How horrible it would have been had we stopped some of it."?


Edited by CPWILL (01/20/20 07:43 PM)
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#320237 - 01/20/20 08:02 PM Re: iranian general qassem soleimani [Re: CPWILL]
rporter314 Offline
veteran

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 7067
Loc: Highlands, Tx
Quote:
American troops in Iraq do not threaten Iranian sovereignty
Patently false from almost any perspective except perhaps for the apologetic.

You provided a peek from only recent years as if that recounts the whole story. Much like the Jews writing their history we have to start at the genesis of the relationship. Let's start with 1953. Does that ring a bell?

I won't retell the whole story because you already know it, but let me remind you of the more recent language American leaders have used ... regime change. Now can you honestly say the Iranians would conclude having American soldiers on it's border is not an existential threat? But even more this administration has pursued harsher economic sanctions. If I were an Iranian I would have to conclude the US is conducting an economic campaign against the Iranian state as a prelude for regime change.

Should nation states ignore states which threaten them? I think we have seen that movie and read the book several times.

But what is truly strange is all of this is predicated on oil. Unfrakking believable!!!!. We formed relationships with SA first so our allegiance is to Sunnis. Imagine a foreign policy centered on which religious group you align yourself with. Incredible.

This is an example of how conservative paranoia has sent American foreign policy in directions which are antithetical to its own interests. I remember when conservative were taking back their country from Pres Obama ... well the Iranians took back their country from the Americans. Let it go!!!!

Quote:
Well they were doing it before we went into those places
A little help. Why would they target Americans if American were not a threat????

Quote:
Iran is not entitled to kill Americans simply because we responded to the 9/11 attacks by removing the Taliban, and then tried to actually help Afghanistan form a government, instead of merely leaving it in blood and destruction and chaos.
We did not try to remove the Taliban because of 911. We did it because Mullah Omar, who at first agreed to turn over Bin Ladin, reneged. At that point you can begin all the justifications you can muster for nation building, killing the Taliban, etc. However the bottom line is by having an American presence on Irans southern border ... and knowing the then current administration was in favor of regime change .... I think you can finish the argument.

Look I believe American foreign policy has been frakked since post-WWII by conservative paranoia. The capitalists in America fear everyone is going to take away their money, so they gained influence in foreign policy to insure the dominance of the capitalists, especially over the Russian communists. I believe we should bite the bullet, wipe the foreign policy slate clean and start a pragmatic agenda to implement American interests. I can see a middle east where we don't favor Sunnis over Shias, but treat them equally, or where there is a genuine equitable 2 state solution implemented, or where we meet the Chinese head on in the economic front, etc.

I am not in favor of one idea over the other ... just saying what is. As long as we are at war with Iran ... there will be blood.
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