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#321757 - 02/21/20 04:10 PM Re: ReaderRant RoundTable for Winter 2020 [Re: Greger]
perotista Offline
newbie

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 451
As a numbers guy, I find this very interesting. Federal filings show a record number of GOP candidates running for Congress, energized by Trump impeachment.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republi...down-socialists

Being I do election forecasts on another site, this got my attention. Will this help the GOP regain control of the House? I highly doubt it. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats, that isn’t about to happen. The Democrats have in my calculations 35 seats that are competitive or at risk of switching parties vs. 18 for the Republicans. If the election were held today, I say the GOP gains between 5-9 seats. These numbers are dynamic and change constantly. Now this is me and me alone. Most political pundits are predicting somewhere between 25-35 Democratic gains in the house. But they’re basing that on the Generic Congressional vote. So, I’m way out in left field on this. Which is where I like to be. I go district by district; I don’t even look at the Generic Congressional polls.

The one thing for certain is that impeachment has energized the Republicans. Prior to impeachment, the Democrats had a huge lead in enthusiasm and energy to get out and vote. The Republicans were kind of sitting on their butts. Not anymore. I’d say enthusiasm is now even, thanks to impeachment. Which I think the record number of GOP filings for the House shows. The Republicans might even have taken the lead in enthusiasm this cycle. We’ll see.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#321758 - 02/21/20 05:29 PM Re: ReaderRant RoundTable for Winter 2020 [Re: perotista]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 16519
Loc: Florida
So once again, polls imply that impeachment has proved more damaging to Democrats than Republicans. It could be the single factor that insures a second Trump term. It could be the single factor that insures the Senate will remain under Republican control.

2020 could prove to be a red wave, with Republicans keeping the White House, making substantial gains in the House while holding the Senate.

All courtesy of a rushed and botched impeachment process.
_________________________
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

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#321759 - 02/21/20 06:16 PM Re: ReaderRant RoundTable for Winter 2020 [Re: Greger]
perotista Offline
newbie

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 451
Going by the numbers, Trump is far from ensured reelection. Far as I'm concerned, a gain of a few seats in the house is irrelevant. By Jones' vote, he guaranteed his Alabama seat will be a Republican pickup. His chances were slim to begin with. On the other side, Hickenlooper in Colorado probably will win Gardner's seat handily. Maine, Arizona are pure tossup's, but I'd give the advantage to the Democrat especially in Arizona if Kelly is their choice. How ranked voting affects Maine's senate race leaves me stumped. I've yet to figure that out. Perhaps Maine depends on who the independent and third party choices are. Who is their second choice if the winner fails to achieve 50% plus one. Totally unknown at this time. Without ranked voting, I'd go with Gideon, the Democrat in a normal election. But this is entirely new, totally an unknown factor is ranked voting. For a forecaster, it sucks.

The Democrats stand a good chance in North Carolina, Georgia's two seats are another possibility. Trump isn't all that liked here in Georgia. How the democrats do in NC and in GA in my opinion depends on who their nominee is.

As for the presidency, going state by state, ignoring national polls, if the election were held today, using a generic Democratic candidate, I have it 269 Mr Generic Democratic, Trump 225 with Florida, North Carolina too close to call. 270 to win. 269 ensures a tie. But once the Democrats choose a candidate, all of this changes.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#321764 - 02/21/20 07:45 PM Re: ReaderRant RoundTable for Winter 2020 [Re: Greger]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 9535
Loc: North San Diego County
Interesting story:

Mulvaney Says U.S. Is ‘Desperate’ For Immigrants

Chief of Staff Mulvaney says:
Quote:
“We are desperate — desperate — for more people,” Mulvaney told an audience of several hundred Wednesday at the Oxford Union, according to a recording obtained by the Post.

“We are running out of people to fuel the economic growth that we’ve had in our nation over the last four years. We need more immigrants.” He emphasized that they must enter the country in a “legal fashion.”


So all of Trump's anti-immigration BS is hurting the country, not just the immigrants. It's all demagoguery for his xenophobic base.

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#321766 - 02/21/20 08:06 PM Re: ReaderRant RoundTable for Winter 2020 [Re: Greger]
perotista Offline
newbie

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 451
Here's another interesting tid bit from Gallup I just received.

"The Public Opinion Context for Trump's Reelection Bid"

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-...ign=syndication
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#321768 - 02/21/20 08:13 PM Re: ReaderRant RoundTable for Winter 2020 [Re: Greger]
Hamish Howl Offline
newbie

Registered: 11/21/19
Posts: 487
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Originally Posted By: Greger
So once again, polls imply that impeachment has proved more damaging to Democrats than Republicans. It could be the single factor that insures a second Trump term. It could be the single factor that insures the Senate will remain under Republican control.

2020 could prove to be a red wave, with Republicans keeping the White House, making substantial gains in the House while holding the Senate.

All courtesy of a rushed and botched impeachment process.



What can I say? If the US population has decided that self-governance is too heavy of a burden and they want to skip right to the end and go full banana republic, then that is what we will do.
_________________________
What can we do to help you stop screaming?

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#321777 - 02/21/20 10:26 PM Re: ReaderRant RoundTable for Winter 2020 [Re: Greger]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 9535
Loc: North San Diego County
Democracy is hard. Go watch Idiocracy now...

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#321784 - 02/22/20 12:36 AM Re: ReaderRant RoundTable for Winter 2020 [Re: Greger]
pdx rick Offline
Member
CHB-OG

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 42515
Loc: Puget Sound, WA
Originally Posted By: Greger
So once again, polls imply that impeachment has proved more damaging to Democrats than Republicans. It could be the single factor that insures a second Trump term. It could be the single factor that insures the Senate will remain under Republican control.

Americans have short memories. Thank the gods. smile
_________________________
Contrarian, extraordinaire



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#321787 - 02/22/20 12:44 AM Re: ReaderRant RoundTable for Winter 2020 [Re: perotista]
pdx rick Offline
Member
CHB-OG

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 42515
Loc: Puget Sound, WA
Originally Posted By: perotista
Here's another interesting tid bit from Gallup I just received.

"The Public Opinion Context for Trump's Reelection Bid"

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-...ign=syndication

...from your link:

Quote:
Public Opinion Contexts That Are Positive for Trump

1. Americans are quite positive on a relative basis about the status of the U.S. economy. Gallup's basic indicator of confidence in the U.S. economy is the best it has been in twenty years, and indicators of Americans' views of their personal finances are at or near all-time highs.

No way Jose. Real Clear Poltics says 54.8% Americans think we're on the wrong track. Hmm

Does confirmation bias sound familiar to you? smile
_________________________
Contrarian, extraordinaire



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#321790 - 02/22/20 01:48 AM Re: ReaderRant RoundTable for Winter 2020 [Re: pdx rick]
perotista Offline
newbie

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 451
Originally Posted By: pdx rick
Originally Posted By: perotista
Here's another interesting tid bit from Gallup I just received.

"The Public Opinion Context for Trump's Reelection Bid"

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-...ign=syndication

...from your link:

Quote:
Public Opinion Contexts That Are Positive for Trump

1. Americans are quite positive on a relative basis about the status of the U.S. economy. Gallup's basic indicator of confidence in the U.S. economy is the best it has been in twenty years, and indicators of Americans' views of their personal finances are at or near all-time highs.

No way Jose. Real Clear Poltics says 54.8% Americans think we're on the wrong track. Hmm

Does confirmation bias sound familiar to you? smile

I posted it because I found it interesting. Draw your own conclusions as that was what it was for.

This though is what caught my attention. "But his style and confrontational approach is inherently a limiting strategy and unlikely to broaden his appeal to a substantial extent."

Trump's obnoxious and uncouth persona is something I've been harping on ever since he was elected. I agree with the above, it is a very limiting factor. It is in my opinion what may be the main reason Trump loses in November. Trump is a very easy man to dislike, even if one agrees with most of his policies. History shows folks usually don't vote for someone they dislike. Unless one dislikes the other candidate more which was the case in 2016. At least with independents. So we'll see.

Regardless of the percentages shown, I do agree with most of the sentiments of Gallup's article. The pluses and minuses of Trump's reelection bid.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

Top
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