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#324396 - 04/14/20 02:37 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: perotista]
Hamish Howl Offline
journeyman

Registered: 11/21/19
Posts: 608
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Originally Posted By: perotista
Parties adjust. I remember after the Goldwater debacle in 1964, everyone was saying the Republican Party was dead. It would be at least 20 years, if not more before they became competitive in elections. I think the pundits and those saying that remembered Hoover and FDR being elected for four terms with Truman making it five in a row in 1948.

That was a bad election, LBJ won 61-39, The democrats had a 295-140 advantage in the house and a 68-32 advantage in the senate. But come 1968, Nixon won the presidency, The GOP had picked up 40 house seats and 10 senate seats.

Then came Watergate, Carter elected president in 1976, he was given 292-143 advantage in the House and a 62-38 advantage in the senate. Again, everyone was saying it would be 20-30 years before the GOP won an election.

Then came 1980, Reagan won, 49 house seats switched and the Republicans won the senate. Now everyone was talking about the Republican lock on the presidency. Several books were written about that. But in comes Bill Clinton in 1992. So I heard all of this before and seen the results.

I think you're missing something here. In 2006 only 30% of the electorate were independents with the Democrats having a 37-33 advantage over the Republicans. Today, 40% of the electorate have become independents as the two parties have shrunk. Gallup as of 22 Mar 2020, list both those who affiliate or identify with Republicans and Democratic Parties at 30% each.

As the two parties move further and further left and right, more moderates are leaving both parties. The Democratic Party averaged between 45-50% of the electorate from the end of WWII until Reagan, then 35% until Obama and now are at 30%. The GOP average around 25% of the electorate since Eisenhower through today. The high for the Democratic Party was 51% in both 1961 and 1964, Their low is 30% as of 22 Mar 2020. The GOP had their high of 38% in 1942, their low of 21% in 1975, but have slowly climbed back to 30% as of 22 Mar 2020.


I also think that past performance does not guarantee future results. This current poison isn't business as usual.
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#324397 - 04/14/20 03:18 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Hamish Howl]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 842
Originally Posted By: Hamish Howl
Originally Posted By: perotista
Parties adjust. I remember after the Goldwater debacle in 1964, everyone was saying the Republican Party was dead. It would be at least 20 years, if not more before they became competitive in elections. I think the pundits and those saying that remembered Hoover and FDR being elected for four terms with Truman making it five in a row in 1948.

That was a bad election, LBJ won 61-39, The democrats had a 295-140 advantage in the house and a 68-32 advantage in the senate. But come 1968, Nixon won the presidency, The GOP had picked up 40 house seats and 10 senate seats.

Then came Watergate, Carter elected president in 1976, he was given 292-143 advantage in the House and a 62-38 advantage in the senate. Again, everyone was saying it would be 20-30 years before the GOP won an election.

Then came 1980, Reagan won, 49 house seats switched and the Republicans won the senate. Now everyone was talking about the Republican lock on the presidency. Several books were written about that. But in comes Bill Clinton in 1992. So I heard all of this before and seen the results.

I think you're missing something here. In 2006 only 30% of the electorate were independents with the Democrats having a 37-33 advantage over the Republicans. Today, 40% of the electorate have become independents as the two parties have shrunk. Gallup as of 22 Mar 2020, list both those who affiliate or identify with Republicans and Democratic Parties at 30% each.

As the two parties move further and further left and right, more moderates are leaving both parties. The Democratic Party averaged between 45-50% of the electorate from the end of WWII until Reagan, then 35% until Obama and now are at 30%. The GOP average around 25% of the electorate since Eisenhower through today. The high for the Democratic Party was 51% in both 1961 and 1964, Their low is 30% as of 22 Mar 2020. The GOP had their high of 38% in 1942, their low of 21% in 1975, but have slowly climbed back to 30% as of 22 Mar 2020.


I also think that past performance does not guarantee future results. This current poison isn't business as usual.


That's possible. Could the Corona Virus start another 20 years for the democrats like the Great Depression did? It's certainly is possible. But I doubt it. Now if you're referring to Trump, how long did the Goldwater stink last? 4 years and it was back to normal.

How long did the repercussion of Watergate last. 4 years and then the Reagan era. How long did the Republican lock on the presidency last, 4 years without Reagan. If Biden wins this year and the senate joins the house in being Democratic controlled. I'd lay you odds the democrats over reach big time making those 40% who are swing voters angry. That leads to a Republican take over of the House and perhaps the presidency in 2024. Trump will be ancient history just like Goldwater was in 1968, just like Watergate was in 1980. Americans have mighty short memories unless what caused the huge shift lasts.

The Great Depression was with us from 1929 until the beginnings of WWII. A remember of Hoover's and the GOP ineptness. This lead to 20 years of a Democratic President. FDR offered hope and that was what Americans wanted. A positive president. Then Pearl Harbor, no changing the leader, most everyone trusted FDR. If the Corona Virus hangs around, Trump bungles it like Hoover did. Another 20 years of Democratic domination is possible if that virus lasts.

What I think will happen, the Corona Virus will be history by November, the voters throw Trump out, give the senate to the Democrats, give the Democrats a bigger majority in the House. They Biden and the Democrats in sole control of government over reach making independents angry and bang, the GOP retakes the House in 2022 and perhaps the presidency again in 2024. Trump is ancient history and might as well, his presidency taken place in 1916 than 2016.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#324398 - 04/14/20 03:24 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: perotista]
Hamish Howl Offline
journeyman

Registered: 11/21/19
Posts: 608
Loc: Tucson, AZ
I would argue that what is happening to the GOP is a continuous progression that began with Nixon's Southern strategy. It is not a cycle, but an incremental iteration in nationalist, racist garbage.

Nixon, Reagan, GW Bush, Trump. Each one worse than the predecessor, with Bush 41 being the only outlier.

And, as an aside, there is no logical reason to believe that Covid19 will be a memory by November. This thing is with us until we have a vaccine, and we have not seen the worst of it yet. It's just begun in rural areas where there isn't much medical infrastructure. Georgia is a good early example.

And yeah, it's going to shape an entire generation, same as the depression did, same as world war 2 did, same as 911 did.
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#324404 - 04/14/20 12:40 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Hamish Howl]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 10351
Loc: North San Diego County
Quote:
there is no logical reason to believe that Covid19 will be a memory by November.


Agreed: We flatten the curve so the bad cases do not overwhelm our medical resources. This makes the fatality rate much lower. But it also makes the curve a lot longer, because there are all those people in tight quarantine who avoided it in the first wave. When they do finally come out, many of them will catch it. The communicability is so high, R0 depends on our isolation. The pool for infection consists only of people who are out and about. When more people join that pool, R0 will shoot up.

The only good thing about that is when Trump's fans follow his proclamation and go out to party, a bunch get sick and hopefully realize his gut is leading them right off a cliff.

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#324409 - 04/14/20 01:25 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 842
We'll see. Does the Corona Virus mean another 20 years of uninterrupted democratic Party in the future? I highly doubt it. From 1933-1952 you basically had that with the democrats in control of the house, senate and the presidency. You probably would have had another 20 if IKE hadn't run as a republican. But then perhaps not as Truman at the end of 1952 was the most unpopular president in our history. Only Nixon comes close to Trump's very low 22% approval in Nov of 1952. Could be if Taft had won the nomination, he would have won just like IKE. Abet by a smaller margin.

Of course that all happened back in a completely different political era. There really wasn't much difference between the parties with both major parties having their conservative and liberal wings. Being a conservative back then meant that you believed in everything the Democrats did, but only a little less.

You also had years when the Democrats controlled the house with margins like 333-89 and the senate 75-17. There wasn't the hatred between parties even during the depression. This was also an era when 45-50% of the electorate identified themselves a Democrats vs. roughly 30% Republican. That 15-20 point gap between parties is completely gone today. Today both parties are fairly even in affiliation with the non-affiliated towering over both parties.

I do think it is very possible for the democrats to swamp the GOP in November. I also think it possible the GOP recovers in 2022 regaining the house. That the Democrats will do something to make the non-affiliates angry ALA 2010 and lose the midterm. That buffer of 15-20 points isn't there today.

Every event that has happened where deemed game changers by the pundits. But given a couple of weeks to a month after the event or happening, usually things reverted to where they were prior to that event or happening even taking place. Usually, but not always as the Great Depression showed. I highly doubt the Corona Virus will have the effect on folks the Great Depression had.

When a party has total control of government, the other party becomes irrelevant in the voters minds. Non-existent more or less. They either condone or get angry at the party in total control either by that party doing what America as a whole wants and retains the power or going against what America as a whole wishes and they lose. In our current modern era, the party in full control always over reaches and makes those non-affiliated, less to non-partisan voters angry. In an era when those non-affiliated and less to non-partisan voters who owe no party loyalty get angry, that is always bad news to the party in power.

You'll see.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#324428 - 04/14/20 07:27 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3604
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
Given the finances of the nation the Dems have a pretty good chance. However, its said that "Democrats have a talent for screwing it up" and its, pretty much, true. I do, however, have hope. The Republicans are working, very hard, to give the Dems what they need. My only question is whether they will use it or not. The fact that the Republican senate has been supporting Jackass Trump the Insane has to give them some ammunition. The only real threat to the Dems are the far left Dems calling for a revolution which seriously turns off the middle of the American voting public (which is, I think, tired of Trump, Socialists, 20 year wars, etc) I don't think anybody wants to return to somebody's vision of the good old days either.

If the Dems do take it all I sincerely hope that they 1)fix what Trump has wrought, 2)seriously fix and expand Obamacare, including restoring it and offering a public option, 3)Stop the endless wars!

In my theory, again, conservatives are against ALL regulation, Liberals, on the other hand, demand regulation. The problem, in this regard, is that both sides, especially now, tend to go to extremes and I would suggest the Dems don't. I also suggest that the Dems, EVERY DAY, mention why they won, who did it, and what they did which the Dems are forced to fix for the good of the nation and the reason for their election in the first place. The Republicans are very good at this and the Dems have, in the past, been silent about such.

Obama got 2 terms (which is usual for the Democrats) and then came the Republicans promising the world and the wall and got themselves elected because "they were something different". I suspect we now know what that means it it may not be so easy for them the next time?

Oh, there is also the little problem of the judicial system which the Republicans have done a job on. They have, for instance, assigned 20 year old new attorneys to life long appointments which the bar would never have allowed, and didn't (but it made no difference to the Republicans). The simple fact is that its going to take the Dems a long time to just rebuild the government which Trump worked very hard to wreck and destroy and that doesn't even begin to deal with the financial disaster they will inherit on top of that. We are, for instance, have to deal with the bill Trump was running up even before covid-19! Now its gonna be a LOT more!

On the good side the Dems have a long and distinguished history of fixing the disasters created by the Republicans who never miss a chance to prove they are right by being completely wrong.

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#324429 - 04/14/20 08:56 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: jgw]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline
It's the Despair Quotient!
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 15728
Loc: Whittier, California
Originally Posted By: jgw
The only real threat to the Dems are the far left Dems calling for a revolution which seriously turns off the middle of the American voting public


Main reason, at least from where I sit, is because said so-called "revolution" is utterly bereft of plans.
Revolutions without plans...aren't.
All they are is a gaping power vacuum, and a vacuum like that is where the most evil imaginable marches in.
In fact, history is full of instances where such evil marched in from the outside.

Sorry, not going to get enthused about watching USA turn into one gigantic bunghole sitting wide open, waiting for a prison sexual encounter from something not unlike The Bundy Clan with some additional funding from the Kochs.
_________________________
"The Best of the Leon Russell Festivals" DVD
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#324431 - 04/14/20 10:59 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17282
Loc: Florida
I really don't know what yall are worrying about. Biden is going to win in November.

This election is yours to lose.

Bernie endorsed Biden, but that isn't enough for you bloodthirsty haters of the left, you want to see us gone from the party and gone from the country.

Maybe we'll split the ticket with a progressive candidate in 2024, we certainly aren't welcome in the Democratic tent anymore. That would account for the Democratic electoral loss I'm seeing in the scrying glass. Like everything else...it will be the fault of the far left.

Not the feckless avoidance of governance by two corporate owned parties....
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#324432 - 04/14/20 11:26 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17282
Loc: Florida
Quote:
Revolutions without plans...aren't.


We've got plans, and other than Biden they're working out pretty nicely. The progressive agenda is now the defacto platform of the Democratic Party. Biden has basically signed onto it.

So I could ask you the same question...what's the plan Stan?

I don't see much of a plan coming from either party to fix this mess, but our plan has been dismissed as socialism. Unworkable, impossible. etc.

Yes, yes, yes, I know...Trump Trump Trump Trump
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#324433 - 04/14/20 11:34 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Greger]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline
It's the Despair Quotient!
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 15728
Loc: Whittier, California
Originally Posted By: Greger
I really don't know what yall are worrying about. Biden is going to win in November.

This election is yours to lose.

Bernie endorsed Biden, but that isn't enough for you bloodthirsty haters of the left, you want to see us gone from the party and gone from the country.


Oh bullsh!t, and you know it is.
I want pretty much the same things you want, but I just don't think a poorly planned (or utterly unplanned) revolution is going to get us there.
Oh to be sure, I think it would be great if it did.
I think it would be even greater if it was planned and organized.

But it ain't.
We don't even see any founder types congregating at a tavern, real or virtual, to lay out plans.
All "our lil ole forefathers" worked their asses off to plan and organize.
We ain't done diddly squat.

So, because it's clear we ain't done diddly squat, the only other avenue is incrementalism, like pot legalization. That happened incrementally. Gay equality happened incrementally, tons of stuff has happened incrementally.

And as much as you may want to force yourself to believe that I'm some
"bloodthirsty hater of the left, who wants to see you gone from the party and gone from the country, we both know that's baloney, and I don't think you even believe that about me.
Chunk might, but you aren't Chunk.

And as far as the rest of the country goes, check back in a month or two. All Biden will have to do is give the following speech, or something close to it:

Quote:
"America, you did not deserve this.
We are Americans, and we used to do a lot better.
The South Koreans handled this crisis better than anyone. They are the gold standard right now, but we, the American people, used to be the gold standard when it came to handling a disaster. We used to have the kind of responsible government that would protect Americans from a pandemic, protect people's jobs, protect people's ability to go about their lives with a measure of safety and stability.

You did not deserve this. You did not deserve this three and a half years of hell brought to you by Donald J Trump.
Now it's time to do something about it.
Turn it around.
Remember in November."


I guarantee you Bernie would have given much the same kind of speech.
But instead it will be Joe Biden.
Thing is, anyone who points directly to the pain we are suffering right now is going to connect with people.

Lots of politicians use pain speeches to connect.
Only one in recent times used it to blame a scapegoat instead of offering solutions, just as his idol did seventy some years ago...IN GERMAN.

Now Americans have seen how blaming scapegoats and dodging responsibility fails the people. Anyone who offers a better idea is going to win.

And by the time 2024 rolls around, I assure you we will be ready to take a turn that puts us on a better and more progressive path.
And plenty of qualified people will be there to jump into the ring.

_________________________
"The Best of the Leon Russell Festivals" DVD
deepfreezefilms.com

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