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#325221 - 05/05/20 06:52 PM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: Jeffery J. Haas]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3611
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
Never saw it. I do know somebody who worked in a private prison in San Diego. Then he quit because they changed rules that made his job too dangerous. He used to be a policeman in Bulgaria during Russian occupation (still loves the Russians). Then moved over here and got a job in a private prison. When he quit he wasn't alone, others did too. I was told there have been serious problems but its still there.

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#325223 - 05/05/20 07:44 PM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: pdx rick]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 855
Originally Posted By: pdx rick
Quote:
Rep. Justin Amash, a Republican-turned-independent from western Michigan, announced Tuesday evening that he is exploring a third-party bid for the presidency.

The five-term congressman and critic of President Trump said he's launching an exploratory committee to seek the Libertarian Party's nomination.

"We're ready for a presidency that will restore respect for our Constitution and bring people together," Amash wrote on Twitter. "I'm excited and honored to be taking these first steps toward serving Americans of every background as president."

- NPR

  • You're not going to be Preident
  • It's May, there are only six more months to the election
  • Nobody knows who you are
  • You'll siphon "Never Trumper" votes away from Joe Biden
  • You're going to guarantee that Trump is the re-elected
Why are Rightwingers such selfish, arrogant creeps? Hmm

In any normal election where the two major party candidates aren't liked and not wanted by over half of all America, the Libertarian candidate usually receives less than one percent. Taking all third party votes together, Libertarian, Green Party, Constitional and all others, in 2004 they received 1.0% of the vote, in 2008, 1.2% and in 2005 1.5%. Only in 2016 did the third party vote shoot up to 6.0%. Change out Trump with another candidate, change out Hillary with another candidate, third party vote would be in its normal 1-1.5% of the vote.

You're right, Amish isn't going to become president. But he isn't going to take votes away from Biden either. Most Libertarian votes come from the GOP side of the house. Most Green Party votes from the democrats.

The Libertarian candidate doesn't get any money, in fact in 2016 Gary Johnson raised and spent 3 million dollars, all third party candidates together raised and spent 6 million. Compare that to Hillary Clinton, 1.191 billion and to Trump 646.8 million, Amish is no threat.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/

He won't be in the presidential debates, he'll get no media attention, no one will know who he is or what he stands for. He'll be just a third name on the ballot. An outlet for voters who hate both Biden and Trump or are disgusted with both ala 2016, Trump and Hillary.

Amish is a nothing burger. I've never understood the obsession the two major parties have with third parties or their voters. Each thinks the third parties robbed them of votes. Not really, According to CNN exit polls in 2016, which polled third party voters asking them if there were no other candidates on the ballot except Trump and Clinton, who would you have voted for? 19% answered Trump, 16% Clinton, 65% said they wouldn't have voted. So the third party voted actually helped Hillary out in 2016. Third party voters deprived Hillary of 1.44 million votes, they deprived Trump of 1.71 million votes. Perhaps more important, having those third party names on the ballot enticed an additional 5.85 million people to vote that wouldn't have if only their choice was between Trump and Clinton.

Third party names on the ballot caused a higher turnout than if they weren't there. Something to think about, especially when they disliked both major party candidates.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#325225 - 05/05/20 08:16 PM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: pdx rick]
pdx rick Offline
Member
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Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 43306
Loc: Puget Sound, WA

As far as likability...Joe is no Hillary Clinton. At least he has that going for him. smile Americans generally like Joe, and hate Trump. Hmm
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#325231 - 05/06/20 01:19 AM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: pdx rick]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline
It's the Despair Quotient!
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 15728
Loc: Whittier, California
A judge has smacked down the order cancelling the New York primary.


Quote:
The stunning decision by Manhattan Federal Court Judge Analisa Torres puts the primary back on for June 23.

Andrew Yang, who dropped out of the Democratic presidential race in February, filed the lawsuit that prompted Torres’ decision.

In the suit, Yang argued that even though Joe Biden is already the party’s presumptive presidential nominee, the state Board of Elections’ cancellation of the primary sets a dangerous precedent and precludes Bernie Sanders and other since-dropped out candidates from the ability to collect delegates.


Bow Bow Bow
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#325248 - 05/06/20 04:58 PM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: pdx rick]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3611
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
The problem with Amash is that he presents himself well and WILL attract some of the independent voters. Remember, Libertarians are tricky and a lot of what they have to say make a kinda sense until you drill down. The American voter doesn't really do that so much. They just grab the first basic stuff then move on to something else as political cant tends, especially after a while, to move on. When queried about being a spoiler he never denied it. He just noted that he was going to give the voters an option, other than Biden or Trump.

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#325310 - 05/07/20 12:50 PM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: pdx rick]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 855
Another option was good enough for me in 2016 between Trump and Clinton. It was good enough for 9 million other voters also. The two major party candidates back then were disgusting to quite a lot of voters. 25% of all Americans disliked both major party candidates which included 54% of independents or swing voters.

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-...candidates.aspx

Most of those who are disgusted with both major party candidates will however, choose the lesser of two evils, the least worst candidate or the candidate they want to lose the least among the two major parties. Now the disliked was so high in 2016 that 6% of All Americans who voted went third party which included 12% of independents. One can safely say a majority of Americans didn't want Trump, a majority didn't want Clinton.

In 2016 that 25% who didn't want either candidate, 6 out of that 25 opted third party to voice their dislike. Compare that to 2012 when 11% disliked both candidates, only 1.5 out of that 11.

what interesting is that those 9 million who opted to voted against both Trump and Clinton probably helped Hillary. According to CNN exit poll of third party voters, the question was asked if there were just two names on the ballot, Trump and Clinton, no third party candidates, 19% said they'd vote for Trump, 16% for Hillary while 65% said they wouldn't have voted. Numbers wise, the third party vote cost Trump 1.71 million votes while costing Hillary 1.44 million. Advantage Hillary.

Actually, the name of the third party candidates means nothing. As long as it is a third choice, that is all that counts. A choice or chance to show one's disapproval of both major party candidates. Although independents, swing voters, those non-affiliated voters, most have no say in who the two major parties choose as their candidates. But they have an exceptional large say in the outcome of the general. According to Gallup and Pew Research, independents make up approximately 40% of the total electorate today. Compare that 40% to 2006 when the non-affiliated or independents made up 30%, you can see their strength is rising while the two major parties are shrinking.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#325330 - 05/07/20 08:55 PM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: pdx rick]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3611
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
The Trump campaign is just starting to get going. They are going to try and destroy Biden and will succeed unless the Dems fight back. So far there is little or no evidence that will happen. Sometimes I think that the Dems really don't want to win no matter what.

Its said that the Democrats have a real talent for screwing it all up. One would think that they would sweep the next election but, again, Trump hasn't even really started yet. His only chance is to destroy Biden and he is REAL good at that stuff. Now add the American voters capacity to not think. On top of all that Trump continues to own approximately 40% of the voting public.

All that is bad enough but now we have a spoiler too (Amash). My wife tells me he is already got a solid 5% and its climbing. Remember, Amash is a Libertarian and that song appeals. It will go something like; Taxes are bad, if people want something then they should pay for what they want and those who don't shouldn't be forced to pay for what they don't want. This makes sense without thought and it works (unfortunately)

I think the Dems are in trouble and there is no evidence, so far, to the contrary.

Just saying...........

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#325337 - 05/07/20 09:57 PM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: pdx rick]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 855
I would say the evidence to date is all positive for the democrats. Biden has the lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, all states Trump won in 2016. Head to head match ups on RCP shows Biden with a 5.3 point lead nationally.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

RCP electoral college map shows Biden leading 183 to 125 with 230 in the tossup column.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Then history has shown the Libertarian candidate takes votes away from the GOP, not the democrats. The Green Party does that. Amash isn't even registering in the polls. Now third party voters are registering at 4%. Back in 2016 at this time, the third party vote was at 15%. with Johnson at 8%, Stein at 5% and other third party candidates, 2%. You're not going to have that huge third party vote this time around.

Unless Amash can raise some 3 or 4 hundred million dollars, which isn't about to happen, he isn't going to be heard. In 2016, Clinton and Trump combined for almost 2 billion dollars. The media isn't going to pay any attention to Amash and he isn't getting into the debates. All third party candidates raised and spent 6 million in 2016.

Money isn't everything though. Hillary raised and spent 1.191 billion to Trump's 646.8 million, almost 2-1 advantage Hillary and she still lost.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/

All the numbers as of today are all pro-democratic party. That could change, there's still a long way to go. But the big difference between 2016 and today is you had a pool of 21% of the voters either undecided and planning to vote third party. That is down to 10% today who are undecided or stating they'll vote third party. Trump in 2016 didn't need to get one Hillary voter to change their mind. He'll need to do that this year, make some Biden supporters today come over to him. His pool to pull from to make up that five point difference is pretty small.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#325341 - 05/07/20 10:15 PM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: perotista]
pdx rick Offline
Member
CHB-OG

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 43306
Loc: Puget Sound, WA
Originally Posted By: perotista
Another option was good enough for me in 2016 between Trump and Clinton. It was good enough for 9 million other voters also. The two major party candidates back then were disgusting to quite a lot of voters. 25% of all Americans disliked both major party candidates which included 54% of independents or swing voters.

Ol' Joe is quite liked by a majority of Americans. smile I think at this point, a rock could beat Trump in November 2020. Hmm
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#325342 - 05/07/20 10:16 PM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: perotista]
pdx rick Offline
Member
CHB-OG

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 43306
Loc: Puget Sound, WA
Originally Posted By: perotista
I would say the evidence to date is all positive for the democrats. Biden has the lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, all states Trump won in 2016. Head to head match ups on RCP shows Biden with a 5.3 point lead nationally.

You forgot Texas. Even Texas is in play and that should never be. Texas is solid red. This means that Trump is hated THAT much. smile
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