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#325641 - 05/13/20 06:04 PM Trump may be ahead!
jgw Online   content
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3443
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
I have noticed a lot of folks claiming victory in the upcoming election. Be VERY careful about that one. Trump is not stupid, just ignorant. He beat everybody last time and it looks as if he just might do it again. On the upside Biden has a pretty good ad. The problem, of course, is that Trump has SEVERAL of those, all good (for him). Not only that but he gets hours of free TV exposure almost every day! I will admit that he is getting called on some of his lies but many others are just ignored, just like Hillary ignored stuff. She was above it and, now, the Dems are above it too?

https://www.axios.com/2020-investors-predict-trump-victory-2158c84e-9179-4c17-ad34-f91ffcb508b5.html

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/trump-reelection-2020-odds-biden-coronavirus-economy.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/politics/donald-trump-victory-2020/index.html

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#325643 - 05/13/20 06:53 PM Re: Trump may be ahead! [Re: jgw]
CPWILL Offline
newbie

Registered: 12/26/19
Posts: 423
Originally Posted By: jgw
I have noticed a lot of folks claiming victory in the upcoming election. Be VERY careful about that one. Trump is not stupid, just ignorant. He beat everybody last time and it looks as if he just might do it again. On the upside Biden has a pretty good ad. The problem, of course, is that Trump has SEVERAL of those, all good (for him). Not only that but he gets hours of free TV exposure almost every day! I will admit that he is getting called on some of his lies but many others are just ignored, just like Hillary ignored stuff. She was above it and, now, the Dems are above it too?

https://www.axios.com/2020-investors-predict-trump-victory-2158c84e-9179-4c17-ad34-f91ffcb508b5.html

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/trump-reelection-2020-odds-biden-coronavirus-economy.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/politics/donald-trump-victory-2020/index.html


Trump's free advertising on TV via his nightly briefs may not be the aid you seem to worry it is - instead, as America is dealing with massive uncertainty, worry, and loss (of life, jobs, industries), we are watching the President beclown himself on national television on a daily basis. We need calm competence, and instead we are getting the Trump Show, much to the detriment of Trump, including with some of his key demographics.


Trump's biggest asset in 2016 was that his opponent was Hillary Clinton - much will come down to whether or not Biden has to go out and campaign, or if COVID provides a worthy excuse to shut much of that down. Biden who manages to keep a low profile is Generic Not Trump, and that guy wins pretty well. Biden on the stump becomes a rambling, forgetful, old man.


Edited by CPWILL (05/13/20 06:54 PM)
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#325648 - 05/13/20 08:15 PM Re: Trump may be ahead! [Re: CPWILL]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 707
Originally Posted By: CPWILL
Originally Posted By: jgw
I have noticed a lot of folks claiming victory in the upcoming election. Be VERY careful about that one. Trump is not stupid, just ignorant. He beat everybody last time and it looks as if he just might do it again. On the upside Biden has a pretty good ad. The problem, of course, is that Trump has SEVERAL of those, all good (for him). Not only that but he gets hours of free TV exposure almost every day! I will admit that he is getting called on some of his lies but many others are just ignored, just like Hillary ignored stuff. She was above it and, now, the Dems are above it too?

https://www.axios.com/2020-investors-predict-trump-victory-2158c84e-9179-4c17-ad34-f91ffcb508b5.html

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/trump-reelection-2020-odds-biden-coronavirus-economy.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/politics/donald-trump-victory-2020/index.html


Trump's free advertising on TV via his nightly briefs may not be the aid you seem to worry it is - instead, as America is dealing with massive uncertainty, worry, and loss (of life, jobs, industries), we are watching the President beclown himself on national television on a daily basis. We need calm competence, and instead we are getting the Trump Show, much to the detriment of Trump, including with some of his key demographics.


Trump's biggest asset in 2016 was that his opponent was Hillary Clinton - much will come down to whether or not Biden has to go out and campaign, or if COVID provides a worthy excuse to shut much of that down. Biden who manages to keep a low profile is Generic Not Trump, and that guy wins pretty well. Biden on the stump becomes a rambling, forgetful, old man.


Yeah, I am of the opinion that almost any other Democrat other than Hillary would have won in 2016. The Democrats just picked a candidate disliked as much as Trump was by America as a whole.

Knowing things can change and change quickly, Biden does have one advantage over Hillary Clinton at this point. It's not that he leads Trump by 5 points nationally, Hillary also led Trump by 5 points this time of year in 2016. The big difference is Biden's lead is 48-43 over Trump, Hillary's was 40-35 over Trump. Same 5 point lead, but the pool of undecided's and or third party voters is much smaller this year. 9 points vs 25 points in 2016. Trump had a huge pool to pull from in 2016, not so this year.

Trump didn't need to convince one Hillary voter to change his mind and vote for him in 2016. He needed to convince some undecided's and some third party voters. This year, Trump will have to convince some Biden supporters or some of those who now say they are voting for Joe.

In 2016 you had 15% of the electorate stating they would vote third party instead of choosing between Clinton and Trump. That is down to 4% today. Which will probably be down to a single point or a point and a half by election day. In the normal range, not up there at 6%.

I'll add that I don't think Trump's daily briefings are helping him one bit. They did at the start watching his overall approval rating climb to it's highest point during his presidency at 47%. But since then his overall approval rating has dropped back to 44% which is his average over the last 6 months.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#325650 - 05/13/20 08:20 PM Re: Trump may be ahead! [Re: CPWILL]
GreatNewsTonight Offline
newbie

Registered: 04/27/20
Posts: 264
Originally Posted By: CPWILL
Originally Posted By: jgw
I have noticed a lot of folks claiming victory in the upcoming election. Be VERY careful about that one. Trump is not stupid, just ignorant. He beat everybody last time and it looks as if he just might do it again. On the upside Biden has a pretty good ad. The problem, of course, is that Trump has SEVERAL of those, all good (for him). Not only that but he gets hours of free TV exposure almost every day! I will admit that he is getting called on some of his lies but many others are just ignored, just like Hillary ignored stuff. She was above it and, now, the Dems are above it too?

https://www.axios.com/2020-investors-predict-trump-victory-2158c84e-9179-4c17-ad34-f91ffcb508b5.html

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/trump-reelection-2020-odds-biden-coronavirus-economy.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/politics/donald-trump-victory-2020/index.html


Trump's free advertising on TV via his nightly briefs may not be the aid you seem to worry it is - instead, as America is dealing with massive uncertainty, worry, and loss (of life, jobs, industries), we are watching the President beclown himself on national television on a daily basis. We need calm competence, and instead we are getting the Trump Show, much to the detriment of Trump, including with some of his key demographics.


Trump's biggest asset in 2016 was that his opponent was Hillary Clinton - much will come down to whether or not Biden has to go out and campaign, or if COVID provides a worthy excuse to shut much of that down. Biden who manages to keep a low profile is Generic Not Trump, and that guy wins pretty well. Biden on the stump becomes a rambling, forgetful, old man.


Exactly. Biden's best bet is for this election to be a referendum on Trump, not actually a choice between Biden and Trump, because then, Biden's shortcomings would be highlighted. Low profile, let Trump put his foot in his mouth, that's how Biden can win.
_________________________
Please take COVID-19 seriously; don't panic but don't deny it; practice social distancing (stay 6ft from people); wash your hands a lot, don't touch your face, don't gather with too many people, so that you help us contain it.

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#325651 - 05/13/20 08:24 PM Re: Trump may be ahead! [Re: jgw]
GreatNewsTonight Offline
newbie

Registered: 04/27/20
Posts: 264
A factor that people are not taking into account is fraud and dirty tricks like wide-spread voter suppression. Trump will do anything that is necessary to stay in power. He is already saying that voting by mail is a problem, and tellingly, he has replaced the head of the USPS with someone who is loyal to him. I wonder what is in the works, if due to COVID-19 the election is by mail. I can see mail being sloooooowly processed in Democratic-rich areas and super fast in GOP-rich areas to the effect that people miss the posting by deadline.
_________________________
Please take COVID-19 seriously; don't panic but don't deny it; practice social distancing (stay 6ft from people); wash your hands a lot, don't touch your face, don't gather with too many people, so that you help us contain it.

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#325654 - 05/13/20 10:48 PM Re: Trump may be ahead! [Re: GreatNewsTonight]
Jeffery J. Haas Offline
It's the Despair Quotient!
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/04
Posts: 15728
Loc: Whittier, California
Originally Posted By: GreatNewsTonight


Exactly. Biden's best bet is for this election to be a referendum on Trump, not actually a choice between Biden and Trump, because then, Biden's shortcomings would be highlighted. Low profile, let Trump put his foot in his mouth, that's how Biden can win.


Biden:
"Are you better off than you were four years ago?
I'll give you a minute to take your mask off so you can answer."


Nuff said.
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#325678 - 05/14/20 06:11 PM Re: Trump may be ahead! [Re: jgw]
jgw Online   content
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3443
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
I think the responses, so far, tend towards something like; Trump is terrible, Trump can't win, its all the fault of the bad Democrats.

This solves nothing, doesn't change the simple fact that Trump CAN win!

I have heard all about how the Trump presence, on TV, is bad for Trump. Er, well, not really. He gets to appear because there are a LOT of people who watch him on TV! Those in charge of TV have referred to him as a goldmine for their product as he gets the viewers. Many say they turn him off, hell, I turn him off. But those of us who do are in the minority. He flat out owns more than 40% of the voting public. I know, his support is waning. Well, not really, they remain and they are solid.

Now, think about the other side. Much of their time is spent ripping out the throats of each other, maligning each other, generally having a great time fighting with one another. This tells me that one side is chaos whilst the other, the Trump side, supposed to be a mess is actually a solid block of believers in Trump.

I consider myself to be anti Trump. Most here think they too are anti Trump. All that being said..........

There is a message, here I think? (I REALLY don't want another 4 years of Trump!)

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#325685 - 05/14/20 08:36 PM Re: Trump may be ahead! [Re: jgw]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 707
I receive a bunch of stuff from all over the political spectrum. This I also found interesting, especially since it is from Rasmussen which leans toward Trump and the GOP in their polling.

"23% of Republicans Think GOP Should Nominate Someone Other Than Trump"

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_...tm_medium=email
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#325688 - 05/14/20 08:47 PM Re: Trump may be ahead! [Re: perotista]
GreatNewsTonight Offline
newbie

Registered: 04/27/20
Posts: 264
Originally Posted By: perotista
I receive a bunch of stuff from all over the political spectrum. This I also found interesting, especially since it is from Rasmussen which leans toward Trump and the GOP in their polling.

"23% of Republicans Think GOP Should Nominate Someone Other Than Trump"

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_...tm_medium=email



They may think that but they will still vote for Trump against any Democrat, because he'll keep taxes low and will continue to nominate conservative judges. In 2016 there were many "Never Trumpers" but then they voted massively for him, I think at something like a 97% rate.
_________________________
Please take COVID-19 seriously; don't panic but don't deny it; practice social distancing (stay 6ft from people); wash your hands a lot, don't touch your face, don't gather with too many people, so that you help us contain it.

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#325690 - 05/15/20 01:17 AM Re: Trump may be ahead! [Re: jgw]
perotista Online   content
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 707
Sure they'll vote for Trump. History shows that on average 90% of Republicans vote for their candidate while 90% of Democrats vote for theirs. Regardless of who that candidate is. That is 90% of each's parties base or those who identify themselves as Republicans and Democrats who show up to vote. It's usually independents, swing voters who decide national elections. Not each party's base.

You can write this down for November, 90% of Republicans who vote will vote for Trump, 90% of Democrats who vote will vote for Biden. within a couple of points or three either way of the 90% target. I guarantee it. It's called party loyalty.

In 2016 88% of Republicans voted for Trump, 8% for Hillary, 4% third party. 89% of Democrats voted for Hillary, 8% for Trump, 3% third party. Democrats made up 36% of those who voted to 33% for the Republicans. To round this off, independents went to Trump 46-42 over Hillary with an amazing 12% voting third party. Independents made up 31% of those who actually voted.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

Turnout usually is the key. compare those who turned out to vote with the percentage of the electorate.

Democrats 32% of the electorate, 36% of those who actually voted, a plus 4
Republicans 27% of the electorate, 33% of those who actually voted, a plus 6
Independents 40% of the electorate, 31% of those who actually voted, a minus 9

Independents don't follow politics much and aren't as driven to get out and vote as those who identify with the two major parties. Whereas both major parties, those who affiliate with both have a huge stake in voting for their candidates. With no candidates of their own, independents don't. So their minus score is very understandable. A majority of independents disliked both major party candidates as their 12% voting third party, against both showed. And as the 31% showed, many just stayed home saying to heck with it.

You can take this back through history and find independents are very under represented in those who actually vote vs. their share of the total electorate. Republicans Democrats are always over represented by those going to the polls.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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