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#325345 - 05/08/20 12:16 AM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: pdx rick]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 830
Originally Posted By: pdx rick
Originally Posted By: perotista
I would say the evidence to date is all positive for the democrats. Biden has the lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, all states Trump won in 2016. Head to head match ups on RCP shows Biden with a 5.3 point lead nationally.

You forgot Texas. Even Texas is in play and that should never be. Texas is solid red. This means that Trump is hated THAT much. smile

As of February in Texas Trump had a 52% approval, 45% disapproval. That's the latest poll for Texas. Here's the head to head match up for Texas.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html

Trump beat Hillary by 9 points in 2016. It seems the absence of Hillary makes a huge difference. It certainly did for independents, the non-affiliated voters. With Hillary in the race in 2016, independents went to Trump, with no Hillary on the ballot for the 2018 midterms, independents went for the Democratic congressional candidates 54-42. From a plus 4 for the GOP in 2016 to a minus 12 in 2018. A swing of 16 points. You're probably seeing around the same swing for 2020. The big difference between 2016 and 2020 in Texas is that 43% of independents say they'll vote for Biden vs 28% who say Trump. But you still have a huge 29% of independents undecided. Biden trails by only a point and a half. Who those non-affiliated, undecided swing voters decide who they'll vote for will decide Texas's fate.

In other words, Republicans and Democrats are irrelevant when it comes to Texas. Independents are the key.
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#325354 - 05/08/20 12:50 AM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: pdx rick]
pdx rick Offline
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Loc: Puget Sound, WA


Donald Trump, Joe Biden locked in dead heat for Texas, DMN-UT-Tyler polls finds
Dallas News.com


Hmm
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#325791 - 05/17/20 03:42 AM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: pdx rick]
pdx rick Offline
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#325793 - 05/17/20 11:33 AM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: pdx rick]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 830
Amash becoming the Libertarian Candidate, really irrelevant. Outside of 2016 no Libertarian candidate has ever received above one percent of the total vote. Johnson in 2016 received 3.26% mainly because of the dislike for both major party candidates. A third name on the ballot was just what some people were looking for to voice their displeasure for both major party candidates. Jill Stein received 1.07% for the Green Party.

Unless Amash can come up with a couple hundred million dollars for his campaign, he'll be under one percent this year. Another thing is that 15% of the electorate were thinking or stating they'd vote third party this time of year back in 2016. This year only 4% are.
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#325797 - 05/17/20 02:02 PM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: pdx rick]
pdx rick Offline
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Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 43273
Loc: Puget Sound, WA


Actually, Amish's candidacy was relevant given that Texas is now in play. Amish would have most definitely siphoned-off those anti-Trump voters, voting for Biden. Your reasoning that Amish was "irrelevant" defies logic.

Hmm
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#325799 - 05/17/20 02:45 PM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: pdx rick]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 830
Originally Posted By: pdx rick


Actually, Amish's candidacy was relevant given that Texas is now in play. Amish would have most definitely siphoned-off those anti-Trump voters, voting for Biden. Your reasoning that Amish was "irrelevant" defies logic.

Hmm

Perhaps, but I think you overestimate the never Trump vote. Most were loyal, life long Republicans. But in 2016 they didn't vote for Hillary, they voted for Johnson. Even so, they took votes away from Trump.

Looking at the most recent polls, 92% of Republicans say they'll vote for Trump. In 2016, Trump received 88% of the Republican vote. Only 3% say they'll vote for Biden, in 2016, Hillary received 8% of the GOP vote. 4% of Republicans voted third party in 2016, only 1% are stating that today. The rest are undecided. This is nationally, not just Texas.

On the other side nationally, 87% of Democrats say they'll vote for Biden, Hillary received 89%. 5% say Trump vs. 8% Trump received in 2016, 2% of Democrats state they'll vote third party vs. 3% in 2016.

There's only one poll for Texas that has been done in May. Emerson doesn't break it down via party. But the Emerson poll includes useful information for not only Texas, but Ohio and California.

http://emersonpolling.com/2020/05/11/ohi...ing-re-elected/

Here's another poll dealing solely with Texas. It's from 27 Apr, so it's old and I wouldn't put that much stock in it. Interesting in its own way. Only 1% of Republicans say they'll vote third party vs. 3% for the Democrats. 87% of Texas Republicans say they'll vote for Trump vs 84% of Texas democrats saying they'll vote for Biden. But this polls shows a bunch of undecided's. Of particular note is that 14% of Texas independents say they'll vote third party with 15% undecided.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200502_TX.pdf
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It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#325803 - 05/17/20 03:32 PM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: perotista]
GreatNewsTonight Offline
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Registered: 04/27/20
Posts: 264
Originally Posted By: perotista

On the other side nationally, 87% of Democrats say they'll vote for Biden, 5% say Trump.

So, among Democrats, there are 5% who are full-blown imbeciles.
Being a Democrat and voting for Trump is a certificate of an IQ of 45 or less. Maybe these are the Democrats who belong to the Bernie or Bust movement, and yes, Bernie or Bust types are low-functioning idiots, in my opinion. Pardon my strong language; I get very angry at their stupidity.
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#325804 - 05/17/20 04:14 PM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: pdx rick]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 830
forget Amash, he decided not to run.

"Justin Amash decides against running for president as 3rd-party candidate."

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/justin-amash-decides-against-running-president-3rd-party-194055674.html

So much hype and fret about nothing.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#325806 - 05/17/20 05:19 PM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: perotista]
pdx rick Offline
Member
CHB-OG

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 43273
Loc: Puget Sound, WA
Originally Posted By: perotista
forget Amash, he decided not to run.

"Justin Amash decides against running for president as 3rd-party candidate."

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/justin-amash-decides-against-running-president-3rd-party-194055674.html

So much hype and fret about nothing.


Yeah...I pointed that out already. rolleyes , coffee
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#326192 - 05/29/20 05:46 PM Re: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash Takes Step Toward Libertarian Presidential Bid [Re: perotista]
CPWILL Offline
newbie

Registered: 12/26/19
Posts: 435
Originally Posted By: perotista
forget Amash, he decided not to run.

"Justin Amash decides against running for president as 3rd-party candidate."

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/justin-amash-decides-against-running-president-3rd-party-194055674.html

So much hype and fret about nothing.


With that I lost my ability to vote for a recognizable major party.

Maybe I'll vote for James Mattis this year. At least then I wouldn't feel ashamed.
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