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#328815 - 09/16/20 03:44 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: perotista]
rporter314 Offline
veteran

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 7342
Loc: Highlands, Tx
LOL

Quote:
So this race may be much closer than anyone thought to include me.
Gee ... I guess all my typing was for naught.

Quote:
I still don't think Trump can win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania for a second time.
I wonder if you can buy a cup of covfefe with that line?

and this is for the numbers folks ... maybe Dr (Democrat) Feelgood designed the model
2020 presidential Election Forecast

Brush up on regression analysis to see where and how it is used in many areas of life. The prediction still does not make me feel any better nor does it change the uneasy feeling I have for the future.

Enjoy
_________________________
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
Get off the crazy train!!! ... dump Trump

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#328816 - 09/16/20 04:10 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: rporter314]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 927
Originally Posted By: rporter314
LOL

Quote:
So this race may be much closer than anyone thought to include me.
Gee ... I guess all my typing was for naught.

Quote:
I still don't think Trump can win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania for a second time.
I wonder if you can buy a cup of covfefe with that line?

and this is for the numbers folks ... maybe Dr (Democrat) Feelgood designed the model
2020 presidential Election Forecast

Brush up on regression analysis to see where and how it is used in many areas of life. The prediction still does not make me feel any better nor does it change the uneasy feeling I have for the future.

Enjoy

I paid attention R, that's why I went back looking at the numbers. Nonetheless, I still don't think Trump is capable of winning a second time Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. All were such narrow victories with Trump winning the independents vote in those states from a 17 point margin in Michigan, by 10 in Wisconsin and 8 in Pennsylvania. Trump in my opinion will be unable to win independents in those states by those margins. Keep in mind, Democrats totally outnumber Republicans in all three.

Another factor was in 2012 Obama won the union household vote by an average of 20 points in those three states. Hillary won them by only a 9 point average. Time will tell if I'm reading these 3 states right.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#328819 - 09/16/20 06:33 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: perotista]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17390
Loc: Florida
Because the race is as "close" as it is it's entirely possible for Trump to win.

It's tons of fun to build Golbergian models around that possibility too.

So what if he does win...is it the end of the world? No matter who wins, we're looking at that possibility anyway.

I intend to watch with fascination as civilization collapses around us.
_________________________
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

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#328821 - 09/16/20 07:10 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
rporter314 Offline
veteran

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 7342
Loc: Highlands, Tx
So for the folks who believe it is hard for Republicans to game the election process, resulting in a contested election, maybe ending up in the House where Mr Trump will win a second term, Hans von Spakovsky of Heritage Foundation and a renown voter fraud conspiracy theorist has been consulting in private with Republican Sec of State in several import states. This guy is looking for ways Republicans can cheat ... by disenfranchising voters through voter rolls deletions and ending mail-in voting. Now he has been known for promoting the idea of rampant voter fraud and yet the very organization he works for has only found 1300 cases of voter fraud since 1982. His only purpose is to steal an election.

If you think it can't happen in America, then it is too late.
_________________________
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
Get off the crazy train!!! ... dump Trump

Top
#328822 - 09/16/20 07:13 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 927
I do think we as a nation are destroying ourselves from within. It's the polarization, the divided nation along with mega, ultra high partisanship where the old ways of playing the give and take game, compromise has been lost.

Today, it seems each party believes the other is out to destroy this nation and only one's party can save it. The other party has become this nation's number enemy. Not more than 20-25 years ago, both major parties recognized the goal of each party was the same, a prosperous, secure and free America. Only their path's to achieve that goal were somewhat different.

It's only going to get worse, regardless of who wins in November.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#328850 - 09/18/20 12:26 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 927
Here's a good article on favorable ratings of Biden/Trump and several past candidates for the president. Feel free to compare and come to your own conclusions.

Trump, Biden Favorable Ratings Both Below 50%

https://news.gallup.com/poll/320411/trum...ign=syndication

I find articles like this very useful for my forecasts on another site.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

Top
#328852 - 09/18/20 02:28 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: perotista]
pdx rick Offline
Member
CHB-OG

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 43449
Loc: Puget Sound, WA
Originally Posted By: perotista
I do think we as a nation are destroying ourselves from within. It's the polarization, the divided nation along with mega, ultra high partisanship where the old ways of playing the give and take game, compromise has been lost.

Welp, if you Righties didn't insist on dragging the rest of us with you on your racist and bigoted, economically stingy, socially injustice joyride through life, we might get along better.

smile
_________________________
Contrarian, extraordinaire



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#328853 - 09/18/20 04:09 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 927
Hmm, righty huh? Yeah, on some issues, right. On others left. Most others I don't care about or are irrelevant to me.

But I think your reply shows how the mega, ultra high partisanship has taken over our politics. Just give me everything I want and we'll get along fine. Stop having a different political point of view or a different political ideology and we'll get along fine. Just agree with me on everything and we will get along great.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

Top
#328856 - 09/18/20 06:03 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: perotista]
rporter314 Offline
veteran

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 7342
Loc: Highlands, Tx
Quote:
Just agree with me on everything and we will get along great.

I'll start with Newt Gingrich. He was followed by a whole slew of Tea People. etc I have never seen nor heard any of them say they were willing to compromise on anything ... Rep Gaetz? ... Jordan? .... Meadows? .... etc

Now it is quite true there are rank and file hyper-partisans on both sides but I am having a hard time of finding any liberal elected official in Congress who has said ... my way or the hiway.

You appear to know of such people. I would like a short list so I can send critical email to them. I am a terrible negotiator. I would have sold America for 3 nickels, a dime, and an old postage stamp, all because I would have felt sorry for the other party.
_________________________
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
Get off the crazy train!!! ... dump Trump

Top
#328858 - 09/18/20 06:42 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: perotista]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17390
Loc: Florida
LOL...You're more conservative than me, Pero, but I don't think I'd call you a "righty".

Near as I can tell Rick isn't even a "lefty". He's a liberal who trends progressive. You, Pero, I'd judge to be a moderate who trends liberal.
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Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

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