Current Topics
Is it too soon to be talking 2020?
by Greger
04:58 AM
Roundtable for Samhain 2020
by pdx rick
01:20 AM
the Pelosi Stimulus
by jgw
06:04 PM
Joe Biden's Coal Moment
by jgw
05:56 PM
Coronavirus: The Plague of The 21st Century?
by pondering_it_all
04:01 AM
The new addition to the Supremes
by pondering_it_all
10/24/20 08:57 PM
The Boogaloo Bois
by pondering_it_all
10/24/20 08:41 PM
The reality of herd immunity
by jgw
10/24/20 06:10 PM
Senate control during Covid
by rporter314
10/17/20 09:05 PM
At A Time Like This America Truly Needs A Healthy Donald Trump
by pondering_it_all
10/16/20 08:41 AM
Trump and Melania tested positive for Covid-19
by logtroll
10/15/20 01:42 AM
yellowstone
by Greger
10/14/20 07:19 PM
RoundTable for Summer 2020
by pdx rick
10/14/20 01:40 AM
Trump HAS Covid!!!!
by rporter314
10/12/20 07:07 PM
the Trump Taxes
by Greger
10/03/20 03:01 AM
Do both sides really do it?
by Greger
10/02/20 07:53 PM
Bob Woodward's book details Trump's chaotic and dysfunctional White House
by pdx rick
10/01/20 05:48 PM
How much do police really cost?
by pondering_it_all
09/30/20 08:35 PM
Civics
by jgw
09/28/20 05:33 PM
Portland. A Turning Point?
by pondering_it_all
09/28/20 02:33 AM
Forum Stats
6292 Members
60 Forums
17012 Topics
303676 Posts

Max Online: 294 @ 12/06/17 12:57 AM
Google Adsense
Page 176 of 196 < 1 2 ... 174 175 176 177 178 ... 195 196 >
Topic Options
Rate This Topic
#328950 - 09/21/20 08:20 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: perotista]
rporter314 Offline
veteran

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 7345
Loc: Highlands, Tx
I can see where we may have a different view of polling.

I believe polling numbers have a low viscosity where the mere mention of a report detailing a perception of impropriety could exert a huge gravitational influence on those numbers ... but it only applies to Biden's numbers. Mr Trump's numbers have been and will probably continue to hover where they are, much like a high viscosity tar, until the application of the multi-fecta .... Sen Johnson report, AG Barr's attack on Pres Obama based on US Att's Durham;s report, Sen Graham's report detailing a cabal bent on political coup, and of course the coup de grace ... a vaccine just days before the election .... ahhh .... victimized by Pres Obama but savior of America.

I can imagine VP Biden's cheeks turning ashen through exsanguination of his polling numbers, all in a matter of weeks.
_________________________
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
Get off the crazy train!!! ... dump Trump

Top
#328955 - 09/22/20 12:20 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Greger]
CPWILL Offline
newbie

Registered: 12/26/19
Posts: 470
Originally Posted By: Greger
Quote:
These up-for-grabs voters have mostly negative views of both Trump and Biden

Lots of folks have negative opinions of both parties and neither candidate is a particularly stellar choice.

I'm still banking on an anti-Trump surge. Pollsters and the media are downplaying the numbers to keep it looking like a horserace.

All Biden has to do to win is stay alive.


I think you are pretty much mostly spot on. The reason Trump and Co are trying to mock him into coming out of his basement is because running as Generic Democrat You Have Heard About Before But Who Never Spearheaded Anything That Ticked You Off Personally, while Trump continues to periodically self-immolate, is the best strategy.

Napoleon put it best: Never interrupt an enemy when they are making a mistake.

That being said, I think the bar is slightly higher than that for Biden to lose. If he publicly demonstrates serious mental incapacity (for example, if he falls asleep during a debate or begins to shout garbled nonsense like a dementia patient), that could cost him the election. He has to be both

Alive

and

Minimally capable of functioning as an adult human being.
_________________________
Winter Is Coming

Top
#328957 - 09/22/20 12:45 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: CPWILL]
Greger Online   content


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17393
Loc: Florida
Quote:
Minimally capable of functioning as an adult human being.


Well then we're in luck! Biden has functioned at that level all his life...
_________________________
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...

Top
#328958 - 09/22/20 12:59 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: Greger]
logtroll Offline
veteran

Registered: 04/26/10
Posts: 10380
Loc: One of the Mexicos
Originally Posted By: Greger
Quote:
Minimally capable of functioning as an adult human being.


Well then we're in luck! Biden has functioned at that level all his life...

Trump, on the other hand...
_________________________
“You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.”
– R. Buckminster Fuller

Top
#328960 - 09/22/20 03:00 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: CPWILL]
rporter314 Offline
veteran

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 7345
Loc: Highlands, Tx
why the double standard???

Quote:
Minimally capable of functioning as an adult human being.

Mr Trump fails miserably and yet his supporters believe it is value added ...
_________________________
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
Get off the crazy train!!! ... dump Trump

Top
#328964 - 09/22/20 11:16 AM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 933
I've said before, polls give you a snapshot of where things stand today. I like RCP as they average out all the recent polls minimizing the effect of a skewed poll. Yet, that snapshot doesn't mean November, it means today.

As for the future, you can look for trends which a long period of polls will provide. Perhaps looking at the last six months of polls, there hasn't been a trend. By that I mean Biden has been steady within the 48-50% range, Trump within the 41-43 point range. No jumps up and down.

I never seen a race as steady as this one has been. During the six month period in 2016, Trump fluctuated between 35-43 while Hillary was between 40-46. You had a trend where Trump trailed by six, took the lead by one, then Hillary short up to a 7 point lead before ending on election day with RCP averages stating she would win the popular vote by 3 points. She won it by 2 well within the MOE of plus or minus 3 points.

So we had a trend at the beginning of 2016 going Hillary's way, then Trump's, back to Hillary's and toward the end of October, first part of November, the trend went back toward Trump. No trends so far in 2020, No 6,7, 8 point fluctuations.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

Top
#328967 - 09/22/20 12:21 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: perotista]
pdx rick Offline
Member
CHB-OG

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 43457
Loc: Puget Sound, WA
Originally Posted By: perotista
... No trends so far in 2020, No 6,7, 8 point fluctuations.

Indeed, the polls have remained consistently in Joe's favor. That's why Trump and McConnell are scared and nervous. smile
_________________________
Contrarian, extraordinaire



Top
#328975 - 09/22/20 03:05 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: perotista]
rporter314 Offline
veteran

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 7345
Loc: Highlands, Tx
The Republican tax payer funded smear machine has not yet begun to smear VP Biden.

The American electorate does not possess the wherewithal to properly decipher political propaganda.

Johnson Report
Graham Report
Durham Report
Barr Report
vaccine for all

Look I am convinced .... VP Biden is the son of the son of Satan and Mr Trump is America's savior
_________________________
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
Get off the crazy train!!! ... dump Trump

Top
#328979 - 09/22/20 09:43 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: chunkstyle]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 10489
Loc: North San Diego County
I think the next four years are going to be very unpleasant for Republicans. With Biden actually trying to fix things Trump broke, the end of the Covid-19 fiasco, the stock market roaring back, and Democrats in the majority in both Houses of Congress, Republican congressmen might as well just go home. The Senate will nuke the filibuster, and that's it: Democrats will do what they want, and Article III gives them the power to make any law they pass judicial-proof.

Quote:
the Supreme Court shall have appellate jurisdiction, both as to law and fact, with such exceptions, and under such regulations as the Congress shall make.


That's an enumerated power, and nothing short of constitutional amendment can remove it. So congress can make a law that says abortion is legal under any circumstances they want, and say explicitly that no court can challenge it. Or they can do whatever they want with health care or the ACA, and do the same. No need to pack the court, if you can just legislate around it anytime you want. Of course, they do have to not overstep, since they do have to get reelected. But supporting popular things like abortion access and the ACA don't lose elections.

Top
#328980 - 09/22/20 09:50 PM Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? [Re: pondering_it_all]
pdx rick Offline
Member
CHB-OG

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 43457
Loc: Puget Sound, WA
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
...you can just legislate around it anytime you want...

...and that's exactly what red states have done. In Louisiana for example, required a doctor who performed abortions to be registered at a hospital - things like that. Hmm
_________________________
Contrarian, extraordinaire



Top
Page 176 of 196 < 1 2 ... 174 175 176 177 178 ... 195 196 >

Who's Online
0 registered (), 49 Guests and 0 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Newest Members
Superfly, GreatNewsTonight, danarhea, RoughDraft274, CPWILL
6292 Registered Users
A2