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#329632 - 10/16/20 05:43 PM The reality of herd immunity
NW Ponderer Offline
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Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
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Members of the administration have been echoing the herd immunity mantra of late, and Trump avoided answering a question about this last night. Maybe they have some inside information about vaccine problems they haven't told investors about yet.?.

ANYhoo, I think it appropriate to discuss what "herd immunity" for COVID-19 would really entail (in the absence of a vaccine).

First, I think it is appropriate to acknowledge that SARS-CoV-2, the virus, is endemic in the United States. It is too well established and too widespread to eradicate it easily. Second, it is reasonably estimated that about 10% of the population (33 million people, or about 4 times the confirmation rate) has already been infected conferring some immunity for an as-yet-unknown duration. Third, epidemiologists estimate that herd immunity would be obtained at a 65-85% infecting rate, given the virulence of the disease, and assuming no significant mutation. Those are my assumptions.

At present, we are at a plateau in infection and fatality rate: 50,000 +/- new infections and 750 fatalities/day. This has been true for over a month. Using these as estimates, recognizing that those numbers go up and down over time and are based upon treatment processes that currently exist, seems reasonable.

Given those bases, an additional 181,500,000 Americans would need to be infected to achieve herd immunity. At the present rate, that would take 2 years and result in an additional 564,000 deaths. That's on the conservative end.
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#329636 - 10/16/20 08:06 PM Re: The reality of herd immunity [Re: NW Ponderer]
jgw Offline
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Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3686
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
Sweden did the her immunity thing. Two things happened (one is happening right now). The first thing is that they killed off a LOT of their senior citizens and I qualify for that one and would prefer to stick around a bit longer. The second thing is that Sweden is currently experiencing an uptic with covid-19. Seems a lot of folks stayed home and wore masks and, now, it seems its their turn.

It is, basically, a really bad idea without a vaccine to back it all up. The Trump thing is just plain strange as he qualifies as an elder person too!

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#329637 - 10/16/20 08:10 PM Re: The reality of herd immunity [Re: NW Ponderer]
rporter314 Offline
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Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 7342
Loc: Highlands, Tx
Maybe Mr Trump was told seniors are abandoning him. So in his infinite wisdom (he is the smartest person alive) he figured if all the seniors got covid, it would kill off many Biden voters and thus give him a better chance of winning.
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#329638 - 10/16/20 10:02 PM Re: The reality of herd immunity [Re: NW Ponderer]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17390
Loc: Florida
Quote:
an additional 181,500,000 Americans would need to be infected to achieve herd immunity. At the present rate, that would take 2 years and result in an additional 564,000 deaths. That's on the conservative end.


I'm guessing we might easily see a million deaths in the US. It's going to be years before this thing comes under control...if it ever does.

With herd immunity comes many many deaths and degradation of the entire herd. What does not kill us does not make us stronger.
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#329642 - 10/17/20 03:42 AM Re: The reality of herd immunity [Re: rporter314]
pondering_it_all Offline
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Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 10477
Loc: North San Diego County
Quote:
he figured if all the seniors got covid, it would kill off many Biden voters and thus give him a better chance of winning.


The fallacy there is that most Biden supporters wear masks, stay at home, wash their hands, etc. So even if they do get infected they get milder cases. Many have avoided infection.

I think Trump has made some other massive blunders. Like attacking mail-in ballots: Many of his voters will wait until election day, see the long lines, and give up. Particularly seniors. Few 85 year olds using walkers can wait five hours in a line. This why I think the in-person numbers will favor Biden, even if Trump gets every mail-in ballot discarded. Not to mention all his supporters who get arrested for voting twice.

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#329645 - 10/17/20 07:20 PM Re: The reality of herd immunity [Re: pondering_it_all]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3686
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
Trump has demonstrated, time after time, that he is his worst enemy. He is one of them guys that sees a foot and he shoots it and a lot of the time its his own foot. His latest seems to be twittering that the Mueller Report must be released UNREDACTED!
(before the election). He is his own worst enemy. In his case, however, it just seems to make no difference.

Trump, the Teflon Don?

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#329649 - 10/18/20 01:52 AM Re: The reality of herd immunity [Re: NW Ponderer]
pondering_it_all Offline
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Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 10477
Loc: North San Diego County
He's only teflon while he has the Senate to refuse to vote for impeachment removal, and his pet AG to fend off any legal action. We'll see about that on January 21st.

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#329650 - 10/18/20 12:33 PM Re: The reality of herd immunity [Re: jgw]
perotista Offline
journeyman

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 927
Originally Posted By: jgw
Trump has demonstrated, time after time, that he is his worst enemy. He is one of them guys that sees a foot and he shoots it and a lot of the time its his own foot. His latest seems to be twittering that the Mueller Report must be released UNREDACTED!
(before the election). He is his own worst enemy. In his case, however, it just seems to make no difference.

Trump, the Teflon Don?


No, perhaps to party faithful he is. As I stated before History shows on average 90% of Republicans and democrats will vote for their party's candidates regardless of who their candidates are or what they have done. The R and or the D outweigh pretty much everything else.

Now independents, swing voters are different. They can go 60-40 for a candidate one election and switch to 40-60 the next election for that's candidate opponent.

I always said it was a complete waste of time trying to convince Trump supporters to abandon him just like it was a waste to try to convince Obama supporters to abandon him.

The ideal election strategy in my opinion would be to forget the R's and the D's, we know who they'll vote for. Concentrate on winning independents, swing voters. You can convince them to vote for your candidate, sometime in great numbers.

According to the latest RCP averages of all recent polls you have 95% of republicans saying they'll vote for Trump, 3% for Biden, 1% third party, 1% not sure, Democrats 95% for Biden, 1% for Trump, 4% not sure. Party affiliation means everything.

Now independents are stating 45% Biden, 41% Trump, 2% third party, 12% not sure. Compare this group to 2016 final vote tally, 42% Clinton, 46% Trump, 12% third party. Biden currently running at 45% has already exceeded Hillary final vote total. Trump is 5 points behind 2016 with third party voters 10 points behind 2016.

If history is a guide, this year's 12% of undecided, not sure independents, a majority will go to the challenger as they did in 2016, 2012 and so on. The Democrats are still the larger of the two major parties, so just squeaking to a win among independents means a 6-8 point win nationally. Winning independents by 5 points could place Biden into the landslide category of a 10 point advantage.

remember, Trump won independents by 4 points in 2016 and still lost the popular vote by 2 points. Having the larger party is a pretty good advantage. Trump and company must win the independent vote or lose the election.
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#329659 - 10/19/20 04:53 AM Re: The reality of herd immunity [Re: NW Ponderer]
pdx rick Offline
Member
CHB-OG

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 43449
Loc: Puget Sound, WA


Dr. Fauci says that "herd immunity" doesn't mean anything unless 60% of the population is immunized. Hmm
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#329660 - 10/19/20 08:12 AM Re: The reality of herd immunity [Re: NW Ponderer]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 10477
Loc: North San Diego County
Fauci knows very well that herd immunity takes over 70%. How much over, depends on human behavior. Because even with 90% of the population immune, it could still spread if we all got together in bars, got drunk, and everybody made out together.

So his statement is probably qualified with everybody wearing masks, maintaining distance, washing hands, staying out of groups, and 10% of us already immune by infection. Any herd immunity without vaccines means a LOT more of us getting sick. If we can keep the infection rate down until we have people vaccinated, then those vaccinated can make up a lot of the required immune.

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