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#321921 - 02/24/20 11:34 PM Re: Coronavirus: The Plague of The 21st Century? [Re: pondering_it_all]
logtroll Offline
veteran

Registered: 04/26/10
Posts: 10574
Loc: One of the Mexicos
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
I can't see any possible causation between the Black Death and the Little Ice Age.


Wikipedia:
Quote:
Scientists have tentatively identified seven possible causes of the Little Ice Age: orbital cycles; decreased solar activity; increased volcanic activity; altered ocean current flows; fluctuations in the human population in different parts of the world causing reforestation, or deforestation; and the inherent variability of global climate.


Quote:
The Black Death is estimated to have killed 30% to 60% of Europe's population. In total, the plague may have reduced the world population from an estimated 475 million to 350–375 million in the 14th century. It took 200 years for the world population to recover to its previous level. William Ruddiman proposed that these large population reductions in Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East caused a decrease in agricultural activity. Ruddiman suggests reforestation took place, allowing more carbon dioxide uptake from the atmosphere, which may have been a factor in the cooling noted during the Little Ice Age. Ruddiman further hypothesized that a reduced population in the Americas after European contact in the 16th century could have had a similar effect. Other researchers supported depopulation in the Americas as a factor, asserting that humans had cleared considerable amounts of forest to support agriculture in the Americas before the arrival of Europeans brought on a population collapse. Richard Nevle, Robert Dull and colleagues further suggested that not only anthropogenic forest clearance played a role in reducing the amount of carbon sequestered in Neotropical forests, but that human-set fires played a central role in reducing biomass in Amazonian and Central American forests before the arrival of Europeans and the concomitant spread of diseases during the Columbian exchange. Dull and Nevle calculated that reforestation in the tropical biomes of the Americas alone from 1500 to 1650 accounted for net carbon sequestration of 2-5 Pg. Brierley conjectured that European arrival in the Americas caused mass deaths from epidemic disease, which caused much abandonment of farmland, which caused much return of forest, which sequestered greater levels of carbon dioxide. A study of sediment cores and soil samples further suggests that carbon dioxide uptake via reforestation in the Americas could have contributed to the Little Ice Age. The depopulation is linked to a drop in carbon dioxide levels observed at Law Dome, Antarctica. A 2011 study by the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology asserts that the Mongol invasions and conquests, which lasted almost two centuries, contributed to global cooling by depopulating vast regions and allowing for the return of carbon absorbing forest over cultivated land.
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#321924 - 02/25/20 12:40 AM Re: Coronavirus: The Plague of The 21st Century? [Re: NW Ponderer]
pdx rick Offline
Member
CHB-OG

Registered: 05/09/05
Posts: 43762
Loc: Puget Sound, WA

How is the corona virus any different than SARS virus in the early 2000s that we all survived? In fact, from what what I am being informed by various media outlets, this virus is less severe than SARS.

Hmm
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#321927 - 02/25/20 04:56 AM Re: Coronavirus: The Plague of The 21st Century? [Re: NW Ponderer]
pondering_it_all Offline
veteran

Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 10773
Loc: North San Diego County
It's a lot more contagious and people can be infectious for a while before symptoms appear. That makes a huge difference. Lethality actually makes a pandemic LESS likely because people die quickly before they can spread it. The fact that isolated pockets are popping up here and there around the world means it has been out there in the air-traveling public for longer than we think. It probably had a few months jump on the people trying to isolate it. It also can infect people with minor or no symptoms. That's very bad news from an epidemology viewpoint.

It is less lethal than SARS, but a lot more people are likely to catch it. When I read about the decision process for that plane containing infected and non-infected people, the fact that the state department overruled the CDC said it all: America's response is being run by idiots. We are screwed.

Public Health requires doing hard things based on science, and the Trump administration has never been one to do hard things or pay attention to experts. They think they create reality. Good luck with that.

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#321934 - 02/25/20 04:45 PM Re: Coronavirus: The Plague of The 21st Century? [Re: pdx rick]
Hamish Howl Offline
journeyman

Registered: 11/21/19
Posts: 608
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Originally Posted By: pdx rick

How is the corona virus any different than SARS virus in the early 2000s that we all survived? In fact, from what what I am being informed by various media outlets, this virus is less severe than SARS.

Hmm


But it has a MUCH longer incubation period, in which a person is also contagious.
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#321935 - 02/25/20 04:46 PM Re: Coronavirus: The Plague of The 21st Century? [Re: pondering_it_all]
Hamish Howl Offline
journeyman

Registered: 11/21/19
Posts: 608
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
When I read about the decision process for that plane containing infected and non-infected people, the fact that the state department overruled the CDC said it all: America's response is being run by idiots. We are screwed.


Trump is also taking 16% of the CDC's funding away.
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#321937 - 02/25/20 06:29 PM Re: Coronavirus: The Plague of The 21st Century? [Re: Hamish Howl]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17602
Loc: Florida

Quote:
Trump is also taking 16% of the CDC's funding away.


So the guy who would have found the vaccine no longer works for the CDC because Trump was too cheap to pay the bills. Containment has failed.

Commerce has already been interrupted, panic has set in. The White House has fumbled it's early handling of the crisis.

This could be Trump's Waterloo.
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#321940 - 02/25/20 06:40 PM Re: Coronavirus: The Plague of The 21st Century? [Re: NW Ponderer]
Hamish Howl Offline
journeyman

Registered: 11/21/19
Posts: 608
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Well, just asked the warehouse for a box of dust masks.

Apparently, there aren't any.
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#321941 - 02/25/20 07:14 PM Re: Coronavirus: The Plague of The 21st Century? [Re: NW Ponderer]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3875
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
This one is pretty interesting. Seems that we don't have a test nor a virus! Either one needs to get passed by the DEA before they can be used. Apparently that may take years and, again apparently, gov is waaay behind on this one. So, basically, we have no idea how many are infected. Better yet. The death rate for this one has been set at about 3.2%. I know, don't sound like many until those who got it start in the multiple thousands. Now throw in that Trump is cutting science and health agencies by multiple billions per agency. You know, like National Institutes of Health and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (kinda makes your heart beat a bit faster?)

Now, for the kicker, according to the talking heads of tv. Seems that the Dems have, pretty much, ignored ALL of the above and people are beginning to wonder. To me it just seems that its yet another indication that the dems are completely uninterested in doing much else than beat up on each other as per our current group of contenders. One can wonder what, exactly, they think they are contending over. Perhaps, eventually, they might even let us know.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/t...bc1c_story.html

Please note, I have not gone after Bernie on this one but he does warrant some thought. One great thing about Bernie. He is GREAT when it comes to fairy tales.

Oh, on the good side Trump has valiantly claimed that Coronavirus has been taken care of and there is nothing to worry about.


Edited by jgw (02/25/20 07:18 PM)

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#321951 - 02/25/20 08:10 PM Re: Coronavirus: The Plague of The 21st Century? [Re: jgw]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17602
Loc: Florida
Pushing Medicare For All through congress might be easier on the heels of a national pandemic where thousands die.
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#321955 - 02/25/20 08:53 PM Re: Coronavirus: The Plague of The 21st Century? [Re: NW Ponderer]
NW Ponderer Offline
Moderator
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/09/11
Posts: 17485
I heard a disturbing point today, by an epidemiologist: most of the prescription meds and supplies we use (e.g, masks, gloves, disposable protective clothing) to combat the problem are produced ...in China, and the factories ate closed. We're undersupplied at present. And the supply chain is disrupted. At least it's not as if China might need these things...

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