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#331430 - 01/13/21 11:27 AM Re: An alternate to Impeachment [Re: Greger]
rporter314 Offline
veteran

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 7468
Loc: Highlands, Tx
Quote:
I'd like to see him impeached. But I'm not counting on it.
Impeachment is a given ... conviction is problematic (to those who want him convicted)
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#331431 - 01/13/21 01:05 PM Re: An alternate to Impeachment [Re: jgw]
Ujest Shurly Offline
journeyman

Registered: 10/16/16
Posts: 710
Loc: Sterling Heights, MI, USA
Seems to be a small but growing number of republican Reps looking favorably on Impeachment. Additionally, it looks like a growing group of republican Senators are also looking favorably to convict.

Now, will there be enough for conviction?

I do not care if the trial and judgement occur the morning of the 20th, just so long as the trial is held and the Senators are on record... And President Donald (...) Trump* gets marked like below. Though I am also looking forward to his possible jail time...


*Impeached 18 December 2019 and DD MONTH 2021
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#331434 - 01/13/21 02:27 PM Re: An alternate to Impeachment [Re: Ujest Shurly]
perotista Offline
member

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 1139
Originally Posted By: Ujest Shurly
Seems to be a small but growing number of republican Reps looking favorably on Impeachment. Additionally, it looks like a growing group of republican Senators are also looking favorably to convict.

Now, will there be enough for conviction?

I do not care if the trial and judgement occur the morning of the 20th, just so long as the trial is held and the Senators are on record... And President Donald (...) Trump* gets marked like below. Though I am also looking forward to his possible jail time...


*Impeached 18 December 2019 and DD MONTH 2021

Like it or not, the impeachment of 2019 was basically a partisan affair with no chance of succeeding. Even independents were against it. History has shown you must have approximately 60% of the public favoring impeachment with at least 55% of independents also favoring it. You had those numbers with Nixon, he resigned knowing full well he would be removed if he didn't. You also had 31% of all Republicans favoring impeachment and removal.

Bill Clinton's never even came close to those numbers, neither did Trump in 2019. Both were purely partisan impeachments in my opinion. This one has an entirely different feel. 56% of all Americans want Trump removed immediately, right at the successful threshold number. This includes 94% of Democrats, 58% of independents which is above the threshold to be successful, but only 14% of Republicans. The first two set of numbers say success, the latter say doubtful. 31% of Republicans favored impeaching Nixon which would have been successful. only 4% of Democrats favored impeaching Bill Clinton, 11% of Republican favored impeaching Trump in 2019. 14% of Republicans favor impeaching Trump today.

But I think that 14% is misleading as more and more Republicans are coming on board everyday. You'll need 17 Republicans in the new senate to vote for conviction, you have around 5 today which is 5 more than you had in 2019. I think more will come on board willing to vote to convict. Will it reach the required 17? I'd say doubtful today. I'd give it 40-60 on achieving that today, but last Friday when this was first talked about, I would have said zero chance.
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#331438 - 01/13/21 04:27 PM Re: An alternate to Impeachment [Re: jgw]
perotista Offline
member

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 1139
Another thought on my post above. Back in 1974 the Democrats had a 58-42 advantage in the senate. They needed just 9 Republican senators to cross over to remove Nixon. They had those on the day Nixon resigned.

In Clinton's impeachment, the Republicans had a 55-45 advantage in the senate. But they still needed 12 Democrats to go along. They didn't get a single one. Even two Republicans voted not guilty.

In Trump's first impeachment, the republicans had a 53-47 advantage, meaning the democrats needed 20 Republican senators to vote for removal. Only Romney Joined the democrats voting to convict.

Today we have a 50-50 tie. Meaning the Democrats need 17 Republican senators to vote guilty. There are at least 5 that have stated they would. 12 more to go which in my opinion today is doubtful, but possible. Not very high on the probability scale. Now that could change tomorrow as McConnell has stated he welcomes impeachment. Just exactly what he means by that, remains to be seen. So much depends on McConnell. If he comes out and states he vote guilty, many other GOP senators will follow and impeachment will succeed fairly easily. If he doesn't, it will probably fail, but come within a few votes of the 67 needed. Stay tuned as the odds change daily.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#331442 - 01/13/21 07:07 PM Re: An alternate to Impeachment [Re: perotista]
jgw Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 05/22/06
Posts: 3875
Loc: Port Angeles, WA
This is, exactly, why I suggested that Censure, with the addendum against his ever running for public office again. All that needs to pass is a simple majority. Instead the Dems have decided to bet everything on publicly punishing the national jackass. I sincerely hope we are wrong but I doubt it.

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#331445 - 01/13/21 08:26 PM Re: An alternate to Impeachment [Re: perotista]
rporter314 Offline
veteran

Registered: 03/18/03
Posts: 7468
Loc: Highlands, Tx
Quote:
Bill Clinton's never even came close to those numbers, neither did Trump in 2019. Both were purely partisan impeachments in my opinion.


So you see an equivalence between having sex in WH and lying about it when your wife was standing next to you and asking a foreign government for political dirt in trade for military aid?

Really.

The first should have never happened and the second should have been the basis for any president to be impeached.

Partisan equivalence? no call for an instant replay ... not even close
_________________________
ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
Trump was dumped .... but he won't leave

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#331446 - 01/13/21 09:39 PM Re: An alternate to Impeachment [Re: jgw]
Ujest Shurly Offline
journeyman

Registered: 10/16/16
Posts: 710
Loc: Sterling Heights, MI, USA
Can now update the President Donald (Coward, Traitor, Misogynist, Demagogue, Criminal, Serial Predator, Adulterer, Draft Dodger, Narcissist, Liar, Thief, Grifter, Incompetent, Bully, Braggart, Loser, failed Con-man, Fraudster, Seditionist, Insurrectionist, Wanted by Interpol, etc.) Trump* impeachment tag.


*Impeached: December 18, 2019 and January 13, 2021
_________________________
Vote 2022!

Life is like a PB&J sandwich. The older you get, the moldery and crustier you get.

Now, get off my grass!

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#331447 - 01/13/21 10:07 PM Re: An alternate to Impeachment [Re: rporter314]
Greger Offline


Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/24/06
Posts: 17601
Loc: Florida
Originally Posted By: rporter314
Quote:
I'd like to see him impeached. But I'm not counting on it.
Impeachment is a given ... conviction is problematic (to those who want him convicted)


I didn't think Democrats would have the cojones to railroad it through.
Gotta say I'm proud of them. Conviction is unlikely, but McConnell is pissed and might call a vote.

Once in a while when the tide turns everything goes your way for a while.
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#331450 - 01/13/21 11:17 PM Re: An alternate to Impeachment [Re: rporter314]
perotista Offline
member

Registered: 09/05/19
Posts: 1139
Originally Posted By: rporter314
Quote:
Bill Clinton's never even came close to those numbers, neither did Trump in 2019. Both were purely partisan impeachments in my opinion.


So you see an equivalence between having sex in WH and lying about it when your wife was standing next to you and asking a foreign government for political dirt in trade for military aid?

Really.

The first should have never happened and the second should have been the basis for any president to be impeached.

Partisan equivalence? no call for an instant replay ... not even close


LOL, oh I swear. I was comparing numbers and numbers only. What numbers have a chance and what numbers don't, but you already knew that. Oh well, there's always one that reads something into a post that's not there.
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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#331461 - 01/14/21 03:30 PM Re: An alternate to Impeachment [Re: rporter314]
Ujest Shurly Offline
journeyman

Registered: 10/16/16
Posts: 710
Loc: Sterling Heights, MI, USA
Originally Posted By: rporter314
Quote:
I'd like to see him impeached. But I'm not counting on it.
Impeachment is a given ... conviction is problematic (to those who want him convicted)


Maybe conviction is more likely now and a lot less problematic - QAnon shaman accidentally unravels GOP i...the president’ from RAWSTORY.
_________________________
Vote 2022!

Life is like a PB&J sandwich. The older you get, the moldery and crustier you get.

Now, get off my grass!

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