Originally Posted By: numan




As a friend of Fisher and a disciple of Bayes it is

ROTFMOL ROTFMOL

Now, since there is no conditional probability - i.e. no event B that is caused by A - (because the truth has an absolute probability of 0.9722 and the nova doesn't depend on the machine telling the truth) the Bayesian is being jocular.
And the frequentist is using the above probability as the basis for his decision.
Of course, were he to be an adept of Lotfi Zadeh he would be forced to admit that the sun exploded 97.22% and is intact 2.78% wink
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