OK, I believe you have missed the point. You have pointed out the obvious stats on the House filing charges. No problem, I suspect the odds given are probably close to right.

Here is the problem. Senate Republicans are not supporting a conviction. The putative reason is the BASE support and will continue to support Mr Trump and if any of them turn on Mr Trump the BASE will primary them with a more extreme (if you can grasp that) candidate who has pledged fealty to Mr Trump. So as long as the BASE (maybe we can start calling them Trump's al Qaeda) supports Mr Trump, Senate Republicans will not vote to convict.

Thus, if the BASE were to reduce their support for Mr Trump, it would allow some Senate Republicans the opportunity to vote for conviction and not be primaried. So what would change the BASES support?

Rick pointed out some of the many reasons the BASE continues support for Mr Trump i.e. basically they hate everything about the OTHER. None of that will change. (See comment on shooting in Times Square). Mr Trump will continue to cater to his BASE. There are too many reasons these folks will not reduce the level of their support for Mr Trump, which means Senate Republicans will not abandon Mr Trump.

Despite the probability the House will file charges, it will become a meaningless political gesture, unless Trump's BASE abandons him, and the probability of that happening are ... nil ... zero ... nada ...etc

I suspect the only redress to lift the yoke of the pall which has covered America, is to electorally remove Mr Trump from office.
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