You ain't seen nuthin yet.
Manufacturers will err on the side of caution, as they always do.
I see them choosing the nearest depressed third world country over our own, because they are aware of the fact that we have little to no supply of workers skilled in robotics, demand-driven supply logistics or even factory floor level artificial intelligence of any kind.
They also won't know if it is even safe to pull out of China at all to begin with, due to Trump's mercurial whims.
They're expecting to deal with reality, while Trump manufactures reality TV instead.
I think that ultimately we will witness a new kind of stalemate that eclipses a Mexican standoff, and which ultimately leads to serious consumer supply shortages.
Picture Walmarts with empty shelves and idled workers. How much would it take for China to make a move that triggers that kind of situation over here?
For a hint, think of the Saudi Oil Embargo of the 1970's. China would not need to cut the chain entirely, just apply the brakes enough to stagger shipping delays and slow walk inventory response times.
Remember, all our "big box store" economics operate on a "just-in-time" supply chain system now.
A little bit of Chinese "red tape" would go a very long way in triggering multiple supply chain crises across the country.
But it might not be enough to signal to corporate to pull up stakes altogether.