I'd say it depends on what poll you're looking at. IBD/TIPP had Biden up by 12 over Trump, but Warren, Harris and Sanders all within the margin of error. Basically tied. Quinnipiac had all four with double digit leads over Trump. Emerson has Biden up by 8, Sanders by 4, Harris and Warren tied. With the margin of error of plus or minus four points.

Those are the three latest polls of head to head match ups against potential Democratic opponents to Trump. As you can see there is a huge difference in the polls.

Polls this far out in my opinion are basically meaningless. Historically in presidential races after we know who is facing whom. Romney had a 50-44 lead over Obama in May 2012. Kerry had a 50-44 lead in March 2004 and a 50-45 lead in July.

Now if you look at the latest generic presidential vote poll, 40% say Democratic candidate, 37% Trump. But of most interest to me is how independents stack up, Trump leads 29-26 over the generic democratic candidate. Question 43.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3gj4ffirhi/econTabReport.pdf

Independents make up approximately 40% of the electorate, how they vote is usually decisive in the general election. Just keep on eye on what independents are up to.


Edited by perotista (09/06/19 01:17 AM)
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It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.