Originally Posted By: Greger
Quote:
I assume your not for Sanders on account of your recurring 'he's not going to win you know? you know that don't you" hey chunks, Sanders isn't going to win..." Sure. O.K. Why would I want to argue with somebody who's made up their mind? Your entitled to your opinion.


And you to yours. That's what we do here is share our opinions.

I'm not trying to change your mind about Bernie. I'm neither for nor against him, same with Warren. Neither for nor against.

I'm very much against Joe Biden. I see Warren as the only one who has a chance of beating him. I've been wrong before but I'm not afraid to bet on a horse before the race begins. Too early to place a bet? Why?

I've outlined a lot of reasons why I think the race is gonna turn out like I've called it. You've mostly told me your candidate can't win because democrats are corrupt. I think that's a pretty safe bet and it's part of why I think he can't win. You don't like Warren? I'm cool with that, I don't know that I like her either, I'm just saying she's gonna win. We'll see how it turns out once she's in office.

You think Bernie can win? You see a path where I don't?



I never said that Sanders can't win because of DNC corruption, rather it's a very big obstacle. Just as it was last time.

There are differences between 2016 and 2020 though.
It's been said the possibilty is greater and the obstacles are greater than it was in 2016 and I'm agreeing with that sentiment.

First there's the Clinton coalition and it's tactics:
A professional class that used to be republicans of 40 years ago, their political preferences still are. I don't think that group is large enough or energized enough to beat Trump.

If there's more shenanigans like what happened with WFP endorsement Warren is sure to further alienate the left. That showed incredibly poor strategic thinking on her campaigns part. She's already alienating the left.

Then there's the match up between the candidates and Donald Trump. Here the race looks less like a walk for Biden or Warren where Sanders is just barely squeeked out by Biden for the no.2 pole position against Trump. Warrens 3rd.
Trump vs. Dem candidates

So Biden's melting like that proverbial sandcastle. His numbers have been on a downward trajectory. Which candidate is the no.2 choice among Biden leaning voters.
Biden voters pick Sanders

So either Biden supporters are not telling the truth about their second choice pick (a funny thing to be coy about wouldn't you think?) or there's something funny going on with the votes going into Warrens column as Bidens column shrinks. The polls might not be accurate. But hey, when's that ever happened before?

Then there's each candidates respective bases. Let's be honest with who's got the energy. Again. Sanders is crushing it with rallies as much as Trump is. While Warren had a good showing in NYC Sanders was much bigger. People taking time out to show up at a rally could be argued being more accurate than the polls were in 2016. That is, again, being ignored by the corporate press.

Who's Sanders coalition?

There's still a big outsider candidate sentiment and that would be Sanders again. Warren does not sound like an outsider. Her campaign is not run as an outsider. Quite the opposite. I think it would not be smart to ignore that sentiment. He also appears to be mobilizing a working class coalition, the key to most democratic victories is doing just that. It's simple. There's more of em than there are professionals though it's the professionals that insist they know what's best. S'funny that... Democrats have been losing more elections with that strategy than they ever lost with the new deal consensus.
Bartenders for Bernie

I could go on but lemme just finish it by saying it's to early to say it's in the bag.



Edited by chunkstyle (10/30/19 12:47 AM)