I think it is dangerous to think the election is in the bag. I think most of us thought 2016 was in the bag for Hillary. That includes me and almost every political pundit with the exception of Nate Silver. He gave Trump a 30% chance to win and was derided by almost everyone. I know I resigned myself to a Hillary win the moment it became clear Trump would be the GOP nominee. I didn't pay the election much attention after that. I even forecast a Hillary win.

I don't know how much you all pay attention to polls. I do a lot. If you look at the generic presidential poll, you have this. Question 53. The Democratic Candidate 40%, Trump 36%. Independents 26% the Democratic Candidate, Trump 28%.


Now there are quite a lot of folks in the "It Depends," column. That I take to mean their vote will be decided by who is the Democratic nominee. There is also a lot of folks in the "I won't vote," category which make YouGov unique. Most polls force a person to choose even though they have no intention of voting.

Now here are your mythical head to head match ups thanks to RCP averages.

Biden 50.1% Trump 43.4%


Warren 49.7% Trump 44.0%


Sanders 50.0% Trump 43.5%


Buttigieg 47.8% Trump 44.2%

Now there are three kinds of polls, all Adults which history shows 55% of them vote on average. Registered Voters, an average of 65% of them vote and likely voters which shoots the average of those who vote up to 80%. Historical averages give or take a point or two.

The above polls are of registered voters which means that 35% of them who answered and chose a candidate won't bother to vote. For elections, you want the likely voter polls, they more accurate on gauging the results although they too can't determine who will and will not actually vote. They still include 20% of those who will not vote.

Then there is a the margin of error of every poll. Usually plus or minus 3 points. One last thing, the electoral college. The Democratic Candidate 210, Trump 163 with the rest in the tossup column which could go either way.

Back in 2016 just prior to the election the count was Clinton 206, Trump 164 with 171 in the tossup column.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.